AUDUSD

[Samirofi]

On AUDUSD, the price fell to a new low after worse than expected retail sales figures that has been technically expected as we were looking for a move down into wave v) of (iii). There is room for even lower levels, to 0.8620 but keep in mind that the price is in the final stages of an impulse, so sooner or later a bounce will follow in corrective manner.

[Samirofi]

Update: 30 Jan 2015

Time Frame: H1



important news:

Canadian GDP: Canada’s economy expanded more than expected in October rising 0.3% following a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Analysts expected a small increase of 0.1%. However weak oil prices are forecasted to weaken growth in 2015 by contracting exports and investment. The BOC projects a yearly growth of 2.2% in 2015 from 2.5% growth in 2014. However exports to the US are expected to increase as the US economy strengthens. Canadian growth is expected to contract 0.1%.

US GDP data: The U.S. economy expanded 5% in the third quarter, indicating the US economy continues to improve and has no need for further QE. The final GDP release was stronger initial reads. Business investment and consumer spending dropped slightly from the second quarter, however, trade deficit contracted. Growth in four of the past five quarters reached 3.5% or above suggesting self- sustaining growth. Us economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be 3.1%.

[Samirofi]

AUDUSD Daily Wave Analysis - 05 Aug 2015

important news:

1. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 6% in June, while the economy added 7,300 jobs. Economists expected the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1% and forecasted a 2,100 jobs contraction. The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or are actively looking for work, remained steady at 64.8%. However, despite the positive readings, policymakers are concerned about the persistent rise in the unemployment rate following the crush of the mining sector. Australia’s economy is expected to gain10,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.1%.
2. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 12:30. US jobs report for June showed another modest growth of 223,000 positions, after a solid gain of 280,000. Economists expected a higher increase of 231,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.3% from 5.5% in May. June’s report is strong enough to support the Fed’s rate hike plan, indicating the labor market continues to expand. US labor market is expected to add 225,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 5.3%.

[Samirofi]

AUDUSD made a nice looking impulsive cycle from 0.70966 level and completed the red wave iii) at our 161.8 fibo. projection level. As we know, after any five wave move, a three wave correction follows, in our case in red wave iv). This may unfold later this week to around 0.72010 – 0.72170 area, where the previous black wave iv can react as a support. After the correction is completed, we may see higher levels.