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  1. #781
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    Date : 26th November 2021.


    Market Update – November 26 – B.1.1.529 – Risk Off.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    * B.1.1.529 – RISK OFF – JPY, CHF & USD bid – AUD, NZD & CAD pressured – Stocks & Oil tank. (-2.5%) Treasuries in demand as yields slip.
    UK, Singapore, Taiwan & Israel ban flights from 6 South African Countries – 2 x cases also detected in Hong Kong. “B.1.1.529, has a spike protein that was dramatically different to the one in the original coronavirus that COVID-19 vaccines are based on.”
    * USD (USDIndex 96.61) holds on around 16-mth highs; elsewhere AUDJPY down 1.4% and still falling, currently.





    * The ECB Minutes – inflation coming down below 2% in the medium term, elevated inflation uncertainty & possible upside risks were flagged, bank needed to maintain a degree of flexibility on the future policy path The minutes flagged that PEPP could be phased out in steps until the end of the program in March next year, which be expect to be confirmed at the December meeting.
    * US Yields 10yr trades at 1.54%, down from over 10bps
    * Equities – Asian markets sink -2.5% (Nikkei) – USA500.F tanks from a close at 4705 to trade at 4624.
    * USOil – glugs over 3.5% lower to $74.50, closed $77.42
    * Gold rallies from $1788, breaches $1800 to trade at $1802.
    * FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1234, USDJPY now 114.40 & Cable back to 1.3300.


    Overnight – JPY Tokyo CPI inline, AUD Retail Sales big beat (4.9% vs 2.2%) and German Import prices leap +3.8% m/m, a whopping 21.7% in October, up from 17.7% in the previous month. Energy prices were again the main culprit +20.7% m/m jump in October that left prices 141% higher than in October last year.


    European Open: The December 10-year Bund future is up 94 ticks at 171.92, Treasuries have outperformed and the ultra long end in both Germany and the U.S. have seen a huge rise in demand as the detection of a new virus variant that is feared to render vaccines much less effective spooked markets. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.9% and -2.2% respectively, while a 1.7% slide in the Dow Jones is leading the sell off in U.S. futures.


    Today – CHF GDP, EZ M3 Money Supply, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel, Panetta, BoE’s Pill.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.75%) Risk Off – sell off of the most sensitive FX pair. Daily support 81.00, 80.50 and then 80.00. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 7.3 OS & still falling. H1 ATR 0.208, Daily ATR 0.768.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #782
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    Date : 30th November 2021.


    Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.


    * USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%.
    * Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden.
    * Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday.
    * US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low.
    * Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%.
    * USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January.
    * Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges.
    * #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%.
    * FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.


    European Open: The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number.


    Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #783
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    Date : 1st December 2021.


    Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.


    * USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks.
    * US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now.
    * Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time.
    * USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow.
    * Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now.
    * FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.


    European Open: December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF.


    Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #784
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    Date : 2nd December 2021.


    Market Update – December 2- Sentiment swings on Omicron news.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK anti-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron.


    * USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020.
    * * US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now.
    Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad.
    * USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later.
    * Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now
    * FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now.


    European Open: The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%.


    Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #785
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    Date : 3rd December 2021.


    Market Update – December 3 – Pre-Omicron peak NFP?



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index remained range-bound, but was subsequently boosted by Yellen and Bostic’s speeches and closed at 95.97. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded 4 basis points to 1.44%.


    In terms of non-US currencies, the Euro hovered around 1.13 against the US Dollar; the British Pound closed up 0.16% to 1.3297 against the US Dollar; the US Dollar ended a 4-day losing streak against the Yen to close at 113.16; the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar have been hovering at low levels throughout the year and closed at 0.6813 and 0.7091 respectively; the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar remained stable at a high level of 1.28; the US Dollar and Swiss franc continued to test the previous low level of 0.92.


    In the precious metals market, spot gold fell below the 1770 level to $1769 per ounce; spot silver held steady above the 8-week low at $22.33 per ounce.


    In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep the output increase of 400,000 barrels per day unchanged in January next year. US crude oil fell to a minimum of 62.20 US dollars, and then rebounded more than 7% to 67.01 US dollars/barrel.


    Key recent events:
    The labor market has grown moderately, and the Dollar has regained support and rebounded.


    Yesterday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November fell further by 7,947 to 14,875, a record low since May 1993. In addition, as of the week of November 27, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of 222,000, which was lower than the market’s expectation of 240,000. After the data was released, its previous value was also revised down to an increase of 194,000 (previously an increase of 199,000). Judging from the four-week average, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 238,750, which was lower than the previous value of 251,000 (pre-revision: 252,250).


    Overall, these data reflect the continued moderate growth of the US labor market, and may benefit the non-agricultural data that will be released later today. The market predicts that after the November seasonal adjustment, the non-agricultural employment population will record an increase of 555,000, slightly higher than the previous value of an increase of 531,000, the unemployment rate will record a five-month consecutive decline to 4.5%, and the employment participation rate will rebound by 0.1% to 61.7%, the average weekly working hours remained at 5.0%, and the average hourly wage rate and monthly rate increased by 5.0% and 0.4%, respectively.


    In addition, the market will continue to track news about the Omicron virus strain. According to foreign media reports, cases of infection with the mutant strain have been found in the states of Minnesota and Colorado. However, despite the fact that Omicron has been pointed out as having a very high transmission capacity and leading to the risk of a further surge in infections, President Biden gave the market a shot in the latest speech and said that the government will not re-impose the lockdown measures. Judging from the known clues, the current Omicron variant is not likely to cause fatal symptoms to most patients (especially those who have been fully vaccinated), but because this new variant is still relatively new, uncertainty remains for now.


    In addition, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were hawkish. The former stated that it would be “prepared to abandon inflation temporarily” and that the strong US economy will prompt interest rate hikes; the latter stated that if inflation stays near 4% next year, the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. The US Dollar Index rebounded on the eve of the non-agricultural report and ended at 96.07.


    Today – EZ, UK, US Markit Services PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services, US Factory Orders, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Saunders, Fed’s Bullard





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.32%) From a high @ 1.6680 & slide to 1.6570 yesterday, back to resistance today at 1.6650. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram struggle with 0 line, RSI 56 & cooling. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily 0.0131.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #786
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    Date : 6th December 2021.


    Market Update – December 6 – Stock futures rise, Oil bounces.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    * USD (USDIndex 96.36) up , as Treasuries benefited again from the flight to safety, and as some of the oversold conditions from rate hike worries were pared. Stocks struggled after a lower close on Wall Street Friday, USA100 down over -2.0%, USA500 -0.84% to 4555 & USA30 up to 34784.
    * Investors try to sort out the big risks from monetary policy, along with renewed uncertainties over covid and the Omicron variant hitting, and now with renewed restrictions, all the while pandemic supply/demand dislocations continue with varying impacts on growth and inflation. And the US mixed jobs report topped off. The earnings season has wound down, but worrisome guidance from some big tech firms.
    * Traders keep a close eye on this month’s round of central bank meetings.
    * Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signaled an easing of reserve requirements and China’s securities watchdog tried to play down fears over the withdrawal of Chinese companies from American exchanges.
    * US Yields 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. UK 10-year rate lifted 4.4 bp to 1.39%, while bond markets across the Asia Pacific region were supported and the the 10-year JGB rate down -1. 2bp at 0.036%.
    * USOil – steadied below 200-DMA at $68.00 – recovered from $62.24 today -rose on positive sentiment after top exporter Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude sold to Asia and the United States, and as indirect U.S.-Iran talks on reviving a nuclear deal appeared to hit an impasse.
    * Gold at $1780 area, as Treasury yields soft, unwinding some of the November selloff as it was seen as overdone, and as investors move back into haven trades as angst over an aggressive Fed policy posture abates and inflation concerns ease.
    * FX markets – EURUSD dropped back to 1.1279 and cable to 1.3225, USDJPY lifted to 113.11 & Cable steadied to 1.3328. Antipodeans bounced.


    European Open-The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while US futures are in the red, although in cash markets, the US 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. Asian stock markets also traded mixed and sentiment is likely to continue to continue to fluctuate. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively and US futures are also posting broad gains, amid some hope that Omicron may turn out to be more infectious, but less deadly than previous strains.


    Today – Today’s data calendar had German manufacturing orders which plunged -6.9% m/m in October, much more than anticipated. BoE’s Broadbent speech is also on tap.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.97%) Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI steadied at 45, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.138, Daily 0.91.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #787
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    Date : 7th December 2021.


    Market Update – December 7 – Equities and currencies gain as Omicron worries wane.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    * USD (USDIndex 96.15) steady, as Treasuries rose sharply on the improvement in risk appetite on expectations for an acceleration in QE tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the market set up for this week’s $112 bln in coupon supply. Stock market sentiment strengthened further overnight and the GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
    * The RBA left policy settings unchanged, but sounded relatively optimistic on the virus front, which for some signalled that an early exit from QE is on the cards.
    * Growing confidence that Omicron won’t derail the global recovery, but that also means that central banks remain on course to rein in stimulus as new virus restrictions will likely add to inflation pressures.
    * Today’s released UK BRC retail sales were stronger than expected, but may be distorted by warnings that consumers should bring forward Christmas shopping in the light of supply chain disruptions, which could worsen over the winter.
    * US Yields 10-year rate lifted 1.7 bp to 1.45% overnight, JGB rates are up 1.7 bp at 0.051% as stock market sentiment continued to improve. Australia’s 10-year jumped 6.5 bp to 1.64%.
    * USOil – higher above 200-DMA at $70.60 – concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased, while Iran nuclear talks stalled, delaying the return of Iranian crude.
    * FX markets – EURUSD remains below the 1.13 mark, while Cable is still below 1.33 as the FOMC decision comes into view. USDJPY lifted to 113.72, but currently 113.58.


    European Open-The March 10-year Bund future is down -50 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries and leaving Bund yields to jump sharply in catch up trade, after Treasury yields continued to move higher through the Asian session.


    Today – The calendar has Eurozone detailed GDP numbers for Q3, but the focus will be on German ZEW investor confidence. In the US session, we have US trade and productivity and Canadian Ivey PMI.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.41%) Currently MAs are aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI sloping to 26, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.00226, Daily 0.01442.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #788
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
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    Not Specified
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    Date : 8th December 2021.


    Market Update – December 8 – Stocks extend gains.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    * USD (USDIndex settled at 96.10) as risk appetite continued to improve, with global stock markets strengthening following Wall Street higher, with Topix and JPN225 posting gains of 0.6% and 1.4%. – The BOJ bought a total of 1.025 trillion yen ($9.03 billion) JGBs.
    * Reuters: Intel’s INTC.O announcement of plans to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the United States next year pushed his shares to a 3% gain and cheered chip investors across the board.
    * Japan Q3 GDP revised lower with second report. Shoppers seemed to have already tightened their purse strings, leaving overall activity down -3.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. Business investment wasn’t quite as weak as feared, but the pressure on spending already evident in Q3 may foreshadow the impact Omicron will have on the overall outlook. Supply chain issues are weighing on exports and will continue to weigh on growth in Q4, which is generally expected to be even worse than the third quarter.
    * US Yields 10-year rate still dropped -1.0 bp to 1.46% overnight, and JGB rates and Australia yields also corrected, as speculation that central banks will move earlier than anticipated is pushing up short rates, while supporting the long end to some extent.
    * The bear flattening trade continues to weigh on Treasuries. The significant cheapening in rates since last month amid rising risks of Fed rate hikes made the maturity a little more palatable. The apparent strength in the economy is also adding to expectations the FOMC will not only announce an acceleration in QE tapering next week, but could also push up rate liftoff to the spring, and potentially hike rates three times in 2022.
    * USOil – steadied at $71.00 – Risks: assessment of full impact of the Omicron variant on economy; effectiveness of existing vaccines; US-Iran nuclear talks to resume later this week; US-Russia tension raised as Biden warns Putin of sanctions, Nord Stream 2 disruption if Russia invades.
    * FX markets – US Dollar struggled, EUR and Sterling strengthened somewhat against a largely weaker Dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.129 and Cable at 1.3240. USDJPY pullback to 113.30.


    European Open- The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.4 bp to 1.46%. 2-year yields have moved higher and curves flattened as improved growth optimism is boosting expectations of central bank action as inflation remains high. The Fed has sounded hawkish through the Omicron scare so far and while the doves at the BoE and ECB may want to err on the side of caution next week, the tide on monetary policy clearly is turning.


    Today – The European data calendar is pretty quiet today, ahead of German trade data tomorrow and UK GDP numbers on Friday. Hence all eyes today are on BoC rate decision and statement. US Jolts are also on tap.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.42%) Currently MAs are aligned higher as the asset recovered more than 50% of 3-day losses, MACD signal line & histogram are above 0 and RSI is retesting OB barrier, but Stochastic declines suggesting a possible correction. H1 ATR 0.00062, Daily 0.00448.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #789
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
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    My Language
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    Date : 9th December 2021.


    Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus!



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    * USD down (USDIndex at 95.80) as Omicron worries ebbed further after reports that 3 jabs of the Pfizer vaccine are offering good protection against the variant, with global stock markets sustaining weekly gains but traded mixed, with USA30 and USA100 unchanged most of the session.
    * The BoE is increasingly seen to push back a planned rate hike into next year, which is adding to pressure on the Pound.
    * The JOLTS report showed a bounce in openings to another 11 mln level, but a decline in quits.
    * The Bank of Canada left policy on hold, as expected.
    * A business outlook indicator for Japan came in much stronger than anticipated, but Topix and JPN225 still dropped -0.6% and -0.5% respectively.
    * US debt limit drama averted as Senate leadership makes a deal (expected at $2 trl increase) – The Senate could take it up perhaps today, with the House voting on Friday, allowing possible enactment just before Christmas.
    * US Yields 10-year rate remains above the 1.5% mark though as confidence in the global recovery continues to strengthen, with most expecting the latest virus variant to provide only a temporary set-back for the world recovery and as ongoing Fed tightening worries continue to unwind safe haven trades since Thanksgiving.
    * China PPI inflation drops back from 26-year high. – creates room for further stimulus measures.
    * USOil – rose to $73.12.
    * Gold: at the $1780 area as there are limited gains on elevated Treasury yields and caution in the run-up to a key US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy meeting, which capped gains of the non-yielding asset.
    * FX markets – AUD and NZD were sought as local yields moved higher. Sterling stabilised, after selling off yesterday and Cable is currently at 1.3213. EURUSD corrected overnight, but is still firmly above the 1.13 mark at currently 1.1331. USDJPY at 113.50.


    European Open- The March 10-year Bund future has lifted 16 ticks to 173.65, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has also corrected from yesterday’s highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1%, after being pressured by a jump in yields yesterday, as ECB officials signalled that Omicron won’t derail plans to phase out PEPP in time next year.


    Today – In the US, Jobless claims are on tap. In Switzerland SECO will release its latest set of forecasts ahead of next week’s SNB decision.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.36%) Currently MAs are aligned lower as the asset turned below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are slipping, RSI is at 41 and Stochastic declined to 12. H1 ATR 0.127, Daily 0.908.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #790
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Not Specified
    Posts
    1,073
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    14,058
    My Language
    English
    Date : 10th December 2021.


    Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus.




    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    * USD (USDIndex firmed at 96.25) as caution dominated. Profit taking knocked stocks a little lower after recent gains as concerns over Omicron and the renewed restrictions in the UK and in other areas weighed on the more optimistic growth outlooks into 2022.
    * Asian stock markets have sold off across the board, with Topix and Nikkei currently down -0.8% and -1.0% respectively.
    * China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd officially defaulted on their dollar debt.
    * China’s central bank meanwhile took further steps to limit the Yuan’s strength by setting the weakest reference rate relative to estimates since 2018, – according to Bloomberg. The bank already raised the foreign currency reserve requirement yesterday for a second time this year.
    * German HICP inflation was confirmed at 6.0% y/y, the national CPI rate at 5.2% y/y. The final readings for November were no surprise and the breakdown confirmed that higher energy prices were a key factor.
    * UK GDP weaker than expected in November – More arguments then for the BoE to sit out yet another meeting next week and push the rate hike debate into 2022.
    * US Yields: 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50% – Treasury yields richened, in part on the risk off in stocks and on short covering as some of the recent selling pressures were overdone
    * USOil – dip to $70.16 – biggest weekly gain since late August! Brent & WTI both on >6% rise this week. – RISK: China’s domestic air traffic recovery faltering due to zero-COVID policy, that has led to tighter travel rules in Beijing and weaker consumer confidence after repeated small outbreaks.
    * FX markets – US Dollar firmed at 96.25, Chinese Yuan got a boost, EURUSD settled below 1.1300 on ECB’s debate news, Cable at 1.3214. Yen generally steady to lower against most currencies.


    European Open- The March 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, slightly underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50%, after the paper erased overnight gains. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, after a broad sell off across Asian markets.


    In Europe, expectations for a BoE rate hike have been pushed back as the UK ramps up virus restrictions. The ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, but seems to be still debating if and how to soften the blow with a strengthened APP program. In any case, net asset purchases will continue even when the emergency PEPP program has ended.


    Today – Data releases today focus on ECB’s Lagarde speech, US inflation and Michigan index.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.20%)Currently MAs are aligned lower with the asset below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are moving southwards below 0 and RSI is retesting OS barrier, with Stochastic declines suggesting further pressure.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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