Date : 17th June 2021.
Market Update – June 17 – BIG Surprise from the FOMC Dots.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – FED no rate change and $120bn bond buying to continue. BUT BIG hawkish surprise with plans for 2 x 0.25% rate rises in 2023 (13/18 votes), it had been 2024 and even 7/18 see rate rises in 2022. Statement increased 2021 growth to 7% from 6.5%, and inflation to 3.4% from 2.4% 3 months ago. “risks to the economic outlook remain“, rising inflation was “largely reflecting transitory factors”, recovery “significantly” dependent upon the next steps of the virus. We will taper when economy has reached “substantial further progress” will do what we can to “avoid a market reaction”. Next meeting July 27/28.
USD (91.43), Yields (1.57%) and the VIX (20.46) all rallied.
Stocks (-0.54%), Commodities(-2.0%+), EM currencies & Oil($71.10) all sank.
Biden-Putin – both talked tough and of a “constructive” first Summit. The thorny issues of Nuclear Weapons, (my arsenal is bigger than yours) Cybersecurity (leave us alone, we never touched you) Geopolitics (where you go we will follow) were all on the agenda.
Overnight – Big beats for AUD Jobs (115.2 k vs 30.5K) & Unemployment (5.1% vs 5.5%) & NZD GDP (1.65% vs 0.5%) data.
European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -63 ticks in catch up trade, while Treasuries have started to stabilise after the post-FOMC sell off. The slightly more hawkish stance at the Fed and stellar data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight seems to signal that markets need to prepare for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.3% and -0.4% respectively, US futures are also under pressure, after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight and a lower close on Wall Street. ECB’s Lane – “don’t be premature with assumptions over PEPP tapering” September meeting important but “a lot of data still to to come” before December.
Today – Norges Bank, SNB and CBRT rate decisions, Eurozone CPI (final), US Weekly Claims, Philly Fed, CB Leading Index & ECB’s Elderson.
Biggest Mover post FED @ (06:30 GMT) XAGUSD (-2.51%) turned lower again, ahead of FED after rejecting 27.80. Moved significantly below 27.00 to test of 26.56 in immediate aftermath, closed at 26.95. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 30.35 and testing OB zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.210 Daily ATR 0.603.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.