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  1. #581
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    Date : 19th January 2021.


    Market Update – January 19 – USD & Yen Slide.





    EURUSD, H1


    The Dollar and Yen have come under pressure today after rallying yesterday. A bullish sentiment in global stock markets has boosted other currencies, particularly the dollar bloc and other cyclical units. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose over 1.5% and clocked a new record high, buoyed in the wake of strong GDP and production data out of China yesterday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fared less well, and was showing a modest 0.2% gain as of the late London morning session. US Index futures were up by over 0.5%. Commodities, in contrast, were lacklustre. Oil prices lifted moderately, rising above Monday’s highs, but remained off the 11-month highs that were pegged last week. Base metal prices were mixed.





    The USDIndex dropped below yesterday’s low to a nadir at S3 and 90.36. The index had yesterday printed a one-month high at 90.95. The dollar’s recent correlation with US Treasury yields broke, with the currency declining despite a concurrent 2 bp lift in the 10-year T-note yield to levels back above 1.10%. After rising on every trading day, except one, since January 6th, the Dollar had perhaps been looking ripe for a correction. Of interest, the latest Economist Big Mac index, which is a measure of 56 currency valuations according to the theory of purchasing power parity, shows the Dollar to be the fourth most overvalued currency, behind the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. By this measure, the Euro is 9% undervalued relative to the Dollar, and the Pound 22% undervalued. This gives some insight into why the market has been so bearish of the Dollar in the beyond-Covid global reflation trade, which has the dominant macro investment thesis over the last couple of months.


    Ahead today, Ex Fed chair Janet Yellen will testify before Congress for her nomination as Treasury Secretary, where she will reportedly call for the US to “act big” on stimulus. Regarding the Dollar, she is expected to argue for market-determined exchange rates. Given the Fed’s inflation tolerant, lower-for-longer rubric on interest rate policy, alongside prospects for sharp rises in the budget and trade deficits, US economic policy under the incoming Biden administration is sure to be accepting of, if not wanting, a weaker Dollar.





    EURUSD – breached 1.2100 and trades north of R3 at 1.2144, Cable holds over 1.3600 having tested 1.3625 earlier, and USDJPY continues to rotate through 104.00.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #582
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    Date : 20th January 2021.


    Morgan Stanley – Still the best Equity Trader?





    [Morgan Stanley is set to report its fourth-quarter 2020 earnings before the market open today. Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services. Hence similar to the previous three quarters of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic, along with the US presidential election and vaccination breakthroughs clearly impacted the Morgan Stanley report and weighed on markets sentiment especially as in the 4th quarter the second wave of pandemic looks to be even stronger than before. The virus spread created chaos in financial markets that impacted the value of loans, investments and trading assets, and significantly reduced interest income and investment banking fees.


    However, fiscal stimulus programs and ongoing monetary support are expected to have helped client activity bounce back in H2 of 2020, leading to heightened volatility. Therefore, today we could see something similar to the JPMorgan report. Morgan Stanley’s equity and fixed income markets revenues are expected to have improved. Additional reasons that could support a positive reading today are the near-zero interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s bond purchase program, as these is likely to have aided Morgan Stanley’s debt underwriting fees, which account for more than 50% of their total underwriting fees. Also, global M&As spiked in the 2nd half of 2020 due to restructuring. Hence Morgan Stanley could benefit from advisory fees incomes.


    Nevertheless, according to Forbes and Zacks, Morgan Stanley is expected to earn $1.29/share on $11.08 billion in revenue. This would represent year-over-year growth of 7.5%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $11.28 billion, up 3.88% from the year-ago period.





    Technical Analysis


    It has been an interesting year for US company shares. Morgan Stanley hit a yearly high of $91.31/share in 2020 while currently trading within the $75-77 territory. The share price is on course for the best performing quarter in Morgan Stanley’s history, since it is a breath away from the 161.8 Fibonacci extension from November’s rally. From the technical perspective, the stock’s outlook is currently bullish however some consolidation has been noticed since December 2020 on the overbought performance seen in the 2nd half of 2020. The price is positioned well above the 200 Day Moving Averages and 50 Day Moving Averages.


    The stock is prone to big moves after reporting earnings and could easily gap up if the numbers are strong. Conversely, if the numbers disappoint, the stock could easily gap down.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #583
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    Date : 21st January 2021.


    USD Data – Claims Remain Elevated, Housing & Philly Fed beat.





    EURUSD, H1


    US initial jobless claims fell -26,000 to 900,000 in the week ended January 16. This follows the prior week’s sharply downwardly revised 142,000 surge to 926,000 (was 965,000) which was the highest level since late August. But the 4-week moving average rose to 848,000 versus the prior 824,500 (was 834,250). Initial jobless claims (NSA) tumbled -151,300 to 960,700 in the January 16 week after rising 192,300 (was 231,300). Continuing claims dropped -127,000 to 5.054 million in the January 9 week after bouncing 109,000 to 5.81 million (was 5.271 million). The initial claims number will get a little extra scrutiny as it coincides with the BLS employment survey week.


    US housing starts climbed 5.8% to 1.669 mln in December, well above expectations, following the 3.1% jump to 1.578 mln (was 1.547 mln) in November. This is the fourth straight monthly increase and is the highest since late 2006. Building permits increased 4.5% to 1.709 mln last month after November’s 5.9% surge to 1.635 mln (was 1.639 mln). All of the strength in starts was in the single family arena, posting a 12.0% pop, while multifamily starts dropped -13.6% following respective increases of 1.4% (was 0.4%) and 9.1% (was 4.0%). And this is an 8th straight monthly gain (since May) for single family starts.


    The Philly Fed manufacturing index rebounded 17.4 points to 26.5 in January, much stronger than expected, after dropping -11.6 points to 9.1 (was 11.1) in December. The index has been in expansion since June and was at 13.7 a year ago. Gains were broadbased. The employment index surged to 22.5 from 5.6 (was 8.5). The workweek edged up to 18.6 from 15.5 (was 18.0). New orders jumped to 30.0 from 1.9 (was 2.3). Prices paid nearly doubled to 45.4 versus 24.9 (was 27.1) and prices received increased to 36.6 from 16.1 (was 18.0). The 6-month activity index rose to 52.8 from 43.1 (was 39.2). But the future employment gauge dipped to 38.9 from 41.3 (was 41.0), and new orders were unchanged at 47.5 (December was revised from 41.5). Prices paid slid to 41.3 from 45.1 (was 46.6), with prices received at 33.9 from 34.3 (was 35.5).





    The Dollar moved slightly higher after the mostly upbeat data, which saw initial jobless claims fall less than expected, but continuing claims down more than forecast. Housing starts beat expectations, while the Philly Fed index was stronger than consensus. USDJPY traded from near 103.45 to 103.55, while EURUSD initially dipped to near 1.2150 from 1.2165.





    Equities have opened higher, all three of the major US indices at all-time highs, the USA100 leads the way to trade at 13,310.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by HFblogNews; 01-21-2021 at 08:05 PM.

  4. #584
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    Date : 23rd January 2021.


    FX Update – January 22 – USD Holds gains & PMI’s.





    GBPUSD, H1


    The Dollar has firmed up on a safe haven bid with the reflation trade having come to a firm stop. The USDIndex lifted moderately to a 90.25 high after basing out at a nine-day low at 90.05. The US currency gained only marginally against the Euro and Yen, but racked up gains of around 0.4% to 0.5% against the Pound and dollar bloc currencies. EURUSD ebbed back from an eight-day high at 1.2178, before recovering to 1.2188 following Eurozone PMI data, while USDJPY lifted to a two-day high at 103.70.





    Global equity indices corrected from record highs in the cases of the main US indices and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index. Base metals are also markedly lower. Lofty valuations and an increasing level of concern about the Covid situation have warranted increasing investor caution. Covid restrictions have been implemented across northern China, and the new highly transmittable variant of the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus — aka the British variant, where it was first detected — has shown up as far afield as Beijing and Australia. The EU looks set ban travel to the UK, while the UK has already imposed much tougher international travel restrictions. The rollout of the Covid vaccinations globally has also been proving to be bumpy.


    Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies dropped sharply again, which will only add to their reputation for being too volatile for serious institutional investors to touch. Reports that the Biden administration has tighter regulations for cryptocurrencies on its ‘to do’ list have been driving cryptos lower. Bitcoin was showing an 11% loss on the day, as of the early London morning, at $30,860 — which is nearly 26% below the record high seen earlier in the month. The virtual coin earlier traded below $29,000 for the first time since January 1.





    Eurozone Flash PMI readings declined as lockdowns were strengthened and/or extended. The last minute Brexit deal may have helped to prevent a worse number for the manufacturing sector at least, and the decline in the Eurozone manufacturing reading to 54.7 from 55.2 was actually less pronounced than feared with the number still pointing to a solid pace of expansion. Services meanwhile are clearly suffering. The Eurozone services PMI dropped back to 45.0 from 46.4, driven largely by a sharp deterioration in the French reading, which fell to 46.5 from 49.1. The German index held up better than feared and dipped only slightly – to 46.8 from 47.0. The overall composite for the Eurozone came in at 47.5, down from 49.1 at the end of last year and supporting expectations for a technical recession over the Q4 and Q1 period.





    Across the Channel UK PMI data showed a woeful record for Services and came in much weaker than expected. The headline composite PMI plunged to 40.6 from 50.4 in December. The median forecast had been for a 45.5 reading. Pronounced weakness in the service sector drove the composite lower, with services bearing the brunt of the lockdown across the UK nations, which has been the most severe since last year’s ‘mother’ lockdown. The prelim services PMI headline dove to 38.8 from 49.4. The prelim manufacturing PMI fell to a headline reading of 52.9 from 57.5, which was near the median forecast for 53.0. Much of the manufacturing sector remains open, despite the lockdown. The drop in the composite reading, while sharp, is still less much less severe than was seen during early spring last year. There are hopes that the UK’s world-leading vaccination programme will start to see restrictions lifted from as early as mid February, by which time all the most vulnerable groups should have been vaccinated.


    Cable trades down to test 1.3650, down from yesterday’s high at 1.3745 and today’s open at 1.3729.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #585
    Senior Trader
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    Date : 25th January 2021.


    Events to Look Out for This Week.






    A gigantic week is coming with 2 of the FAANGs, Tesla and Microsoft, reporting their Q4 earnings, along with the FOMC conference in focus as it could provide key information on fiscal support talks. Focus will also be on GDP data from the biggest economies in the world, including the US and Europe, but also on UK Job numbers that will show the impact of the original furlough deadline.


    Monday – 25 January 2021


    German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip slightly to 90.0 in January after the jump seen in December to 92.1.


    BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.


    Tuesday – 26 January 2021


    Average Earnings Index & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to slow down to 2.3% y/y in the three months to November. UK ILO unemployment is expected higher at 5.1% in the three months to November.


    Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The US Consumer confidence is expected to slip to 88.0 from 88.6 in December, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. The confidence measures have shown divergent swings since mid-2020 that have a downward tilt into January, likely due to the surge in virus cases, more stringent lockdowns, and the bizarre political events of recent weeks. We should be seeing some lift from stimulus passage and vaccine distributions, however, which may be more evident in February.


    Wednesday – 27 January 2021


    Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian inflation data in Q4 is expected to decline at 1.5% q/q while headline remains in line with Q3 at 0.7% y/y.


    Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 3.0% in December with an 8.3% climb in transportation orders. A defense orders gain is pegged at 3.0%, following a 3.7% November bounce. Boeing orders jumped to 90 in December with the lifting of the 737 MAX grounding, from 27 in November and zero in the two months before that. Durable shipments should rise 1.0%, and inventories should rise 0.5%.


    Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC is due to meet (Tuesday, Wednesday) but no changes are expected. The FOMC didn’t make any big changes in its policy stance at the December 16 meeting. However, it did tweak its statement to emphasize its uber-accommodative posture, which was underscored several times by Chair Powell in his press conference. The forecasts indicate that current rates will remain in place through 2023.


    Thursday – 28 January 2021


    Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German prel. HICP inflation for January is anticipated to be released at -0.6% y/y from -0.7% y/y. Germany’s temporary VAT cut is partly to blame as are base effects from oil prices, but it is also clear that a lack of demand and the closure of the hospitality sector continue to keep a lid on headline inflation numbers.


    Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The prelim. Gross Domestic Product should advance at 4.1% in Q4 and 3.2% in Q1, after 33.4% growth in Q3. We expect a Q4 moderation in consumption growth to 2.2% from 41.0% in Q3 as heightened coronavirus restrictions impacted spending, while government purchases contract at an estimated -5% rate, and nonresidential investment in structures fall at a -9% pace. We saw in Q3 a continued boom in housing activity and equipment spending.
    Friday – 29 January 2021


    Friday – 29 January 2021


    Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Eurozone’s GDP contracted -5.0% last year, according to the first estimate for economic activity last year. That compared to a modest rise of 0.6% in 2019 and while it was somewhat better than median expectations, the numbers refer to unadjusted data. Adjusted for calendar effects, GDP was actually down -5.3%. There is no data for the last quarter yet, but it is pretty clear that after the recession in the first quarter and the rebound over the summer, virus developments weighed on growth again in the last quarter of 2020, although less than feared at one point.


    Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.1% increase in headline rise for personal income in December is anticipated after a -1.1% drop in November, alongside a -0.7% drop in consumption after a -0.4% November decline.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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