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  1. #551
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    Date : 12th November 2020.


    FX Update – November 12 – Sterling Pressured, JPY in Demand





    GBPJPY, H1


    Some reversal in recent positioning themes has been seen, with the dollar bloc and Pound softening against the Dollar, and the Yen outperforming moderately. This dynamic has been concomitant with global stock markets, outside the case of Japan, flagging. A fall in Chinese tech stocks, sparked by Beijing regulators launching an antitrust investigation, led a broader paring of recent gains in equity markets, which surged over the last week. Some caution had already been creeping back into markets, at least enough to deter investors from entering new positions at the recently heightened levels. The raised level of optimism for a Covid-19 vaccine assisted return to normality remains intact, though there is some way to go and there are known unknowns, including long-term vaccine efficacy and population-wide safety issues. There also appears to be some disquiet about Trump’s refusal to accept the election results, especially with his move to fire his defence secretary, which some fear means that he will try to stay in office. Unnamed Trump aides cited by the Washington Post, however, say that he has no real plan to overturn the results. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gets a special mention for bucking the trend in rallying to a fresh 29-year high.


    In currencies, EURUSD has been trading neutrally in the mid-to-upper 1.1700s. The pair completed a more-than 50% retrace of the outsized gain the pair saw last week and through to Monday, which left a two-month peak at 1.1920. USDJPY has ebbed moderately, to the lower 105.00s. The Pound has come under some moderate pressure, correcting recent gains. There is still no breakthrough in EU-UK trade talks. Sources cited by Reuters yesterday reported that the ‘final-final’ deadline is the end of next week, (November 20) so the clock is ticking. The general expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal. Media networks, meanwhile, are increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts of the UK leaving the single market and customs union, which will happen in just seven weeks’ time. Today’s UK GDP data, although a Q3 record at 15.5%, showed further weakness during September and was 3 ticks below expectations of 15.8%. The current data shows the UK economy is -9.7% smaller than it was at the end of Q4 2019.





    Technically, GBPJPY rejected 140.00 yesterday, moving under the 20-Hour moving average into the close. Today the pair have moved under 139.00 and tested S2 at 138.70, and R3 is at 138.05. The fast MAs are aligned and trending lower, RSI is 36 and falling, the MACD histogram & signal line are also aligned lower and breached 0 line this morning. Stochastics have moved into the oversold zone but remain weak. The H1 ATR is 0.1630, and the Daily ATR is 1.3000.





    Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar dropped back after a short-lived rally following remarks by RBNZ’s Hawkesby, who said that while negative interest rates remain an option, less monetary stimulus now appears necessary than previously thought, which essentially repeated the signalling from the central bank yesterday in the wake of its policy review. NZDUSD printed a 20-month high at 0.6914 before retreating to the mid 0.6800s.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #552
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    Date : 13th November 2020.


    A risk-back-on theme has emerged





    The Pound was showing a 0.5% gain on the US Dollar as of the late London morning, and the UK currency was also making gains versus the Euro, Yen and other currencies. Several factors appear to be at play. One is the rebound in equity markets, which, if view edas a revival of the Covid vaccine rally, is a positive for the Pound, with the UK having large pre-orders of the Pfizer candidate vaccine.


    The European bourses have recovered and are mostly in the green, albeit slightly having pared gains, with the GER30 up about 0.1%, though the UK100 is -0.6% lower. European stock indices are racking up gains of over 0.5% and USA500 futures are up by nearly 1%, nearly reversing all of the closing losses that the cash version of the index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The UK saw the biggest peak to trough drop in its GDP this year out of the G20 economies, so it may benefit most in the route out of the crisis.


    Another consideration is the political developments on Downing Street, with the departure of the government’s director of communications, and news that Dominic Cummings will leave his advisory role by Christmas, being read as a weakening in the influence of the ‘Vote Leave’ campaigners, meaning there could be a softer, more pragmatic attitude to Brexit, although it is not yet clear what shape the new administration set-up will take. As for the ongoing negotiations, there is still no breakthrough with only about a week to go to the ‘final final’ deadline.





    Evidently, given the Pound’s performance, the prevailing market expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal, which is what is anticipated. Both sides will have to make concessions if a deal is to be achieved. All things Brexit go down to the wire, and neither side has been willing, as yet, to make the first move in the concession game. Too much is at stake for both sides, surely, for there to be a failure in statesmanship. It should also be clear that the UK government has the option of exiting the common market in close alignment to EU rules and then diverging in an evolving process over time. The promise of future divergence would serve to mollify the powerful faction of Brexit ideologues.


    There is also the possibility of there being a ‘technical delay’, though the political mood seems set against this. UK media, meanwhile, have been increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts to cross border trade that are likely to be seen when the UK leaves the single market and customs union in just seven weeks’ time.


    Cable posted a high at 1.3185, which recouped nearly two thirds of yesterday’s decline, while EURGBP dropped to levels under 0.9002, correcting from yesterday’s high.





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #553
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    Date : 24th November 2020.


    Macro Events & News – November 24 2020





    Market News Today


    USD recovered after better than expected PMI’s. – Earlier AstraZeneca vaccine hopes lifted stocks, EZ PMIs worse than expected, UK’s better than expected but both poor. Trump acknowledged that Biden transition should start – Equities rallied further (Nikkei back and up 2.5%) & riskier currencies gained a bid. Biden to name Yellen as Treasury Secretary & Kerry as Climate Tsar. In total a triple whammy for sentiment and risk appetite. USOil followed stocks higher and Gold trades $50 lower than Friday’s close. German GDP revised higher to 8.5% in final reading, from 8.2%.


    Shortened Thanksgiving Week Ahead – Highlights – FOMC mins – more significance, after Mnuchin removed emergency funding – possibility of action at their Dec. meeting. Plus – Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods & GDP


    USDIndex – Sank to support at 92.00 yesterday – rallied to 92.70, post PMI’s. back under PP now at 92.35. S1 92.10, R1 92.90.


    EUR – Rejected 1.1900 & tested down to 1.1800, again yesterday. Now 1.1855 (PP) JPY – down to 103.67 lows yesterday. Rallied to 104.60, now back to 104.40. PP 104.25.


    GBP – rallied to a smidge shy of 1.3400, & down to 1.3262. Back to 1.3340 (PP)now all in anticipation of EU-UK Trade announcement this week?


    AUD – 0.7340 – 0.7270 range yesterday. Trades at 0.7320 now (R1), PP 0.7295 NZD – down to test 0.6900 yesterday, another good Asian session for king Kiwi, back to test R2 0.6990 earlier, now at 0.6975.


    CAD – Back to 1.3040 (S1) ; R1 & 200Ma cap at 1.3090, S2 1.3015 CHF – 0.9075 lows to 0.9150 yesterday. Back to PP and 200Ma now 0.9115, s1 0.9093


    BTC – Holds bid at $18,400 (PP). Tested to 18k low yesterday.


    GOLD – Collapsed 3% from 1876 to test S1 at 1820 earlier – now 1830 – PP 1850 USOil – Rallied over R1 to $43.70. Vaccine hopes & OPEC+ production cut noises continue to support prices. R2 today 43.90. Private inventories later, official EIA data tomorrow.


    USA500 – Closed +20 (+0.56%) 3577 – USA500 FUTS now at 3605.


    Today – German IFO, US Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Haskel, Fed’s Bullard, Williams, ECB’s Schnabel, Lagarde, Lane,


    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.79%) –. Holds rally from yesterdays sub 72.00 open, ran to test R3 at 73.05 earlier. Fast MA’s aligned higher but cooling at R2, RSI 68 moving below OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher, breached 0-line last week. Stochs. lowering from OB H1 ATR 0.2565 Daily ATR 0.7411.





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #554
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    Date : 25th November 2020.


    Caution and profit taking has crept into the market





    US equity futures are mixed with modest moves as caution and profit taking has crept into the market following yesterday’s risk on rally. Wall Street surged with gains of over 1.5% on the broader indexes as strong efficacy rates on three vaccine candidates continued to brighten outlooks and increase the potential for a return to normalcy sooner than later. However as the overall outlook remains positive for US futures there seems to be limited appetite to push valuations out further for now, as much of next year’s (expected) recovery is already priced in, while virus developments spell further restrictions for the weeks and likely months ahead.


    Expectations that Janet Yellen would be named as Treasury Secretary under a Biden administration was a relief as she’s a known quantity and would likely support hefty stimulus. Treasuries sagged, not surprisingly, on the strength in risk appetite and amid a heavy supply slate this week.


    Today features a heavy dose of data ahead of the market closure on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, which could make for choppy action. Of note, Q3 after tax corporate profits came in at a record 27.5% pace, from -10.7% in Q2. The USA30 is off -0.2% but sustained close to 30K area while the USA500 mini has slipped -0.06%. The USA100 mini is 0.3% firmer after underperforming the rally yesterday that saw the USA30 close above 30k for the first time ever.


    GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.1%, and up 0.3% respectively. Governments across Europe are pondering how and if to ease lockdowns over the festive period while the WHO has already warned of a third wave in the winter.


    Yields have dipped modestly after disappointing jobless claims data and as stock futures give back some of yesterday’s historic gains. US Advance goods trade deficit widened to -$80.3 bln in October after the unexpected narrowing to -$79.4 bln in September. Advance durable goods orders rose 1.3% in October after climbing 2.1% (was 1.9%) in September. This is a sixth straight monthly gain as orders recover from the pandemic plunge in the spring that saw an -18.3% drop in April, just short of the weakest on record of -18.8% from August 2014. US initial jobless claims rose 30k to 778k in the week ended November 21 after claims gained 37k to 748k (was 742k) in the November 14 week. It is the strongest reading for initial claims in five weeks, as the surge in Covid infections and the consequent increase in restrictions on activity has weighed on the job market. Last the US Q3 GDP growth was left unrevised at 33.1% from the Advance report. Growth has bounced back at an historic pace after cratering at a record -31.4% rate in Q2.


    The belly of the curve is outperforming with yields down over 1 bp as the market digests this week’s record supply. The 5-year is at 0.385%, with the 7-year at 0.634%. The 10-year has richened 1 bp to 0.870%, and the bond is flat at 1.60%. The 5s-30s bull steepened to 121.5 bps from 120.8 bps yesterday and 116.7 bps Monday. Bonds should find support from worries over spiking virus cases and more strict lockdowns, along with month-end where Barclays forecasts a 0.16-year extension, the most since 2009.


    Attention remains on vaccines and the virus. Additionally, Brexit warnings and comments from central banks suggesting caution on additional rate cuts added to pressures on equities. ECB officials continue to flag the extension of PEPP. Mersch, however, signaled he is not looking to cut the deposit rate further.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #555
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    Date : 26th November 2020.


    Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!





    The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.





    The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!


    Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.


    European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.


    The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.


    Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.


    Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).


    A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.


    As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #556
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    Date : 27th November 2020.


    FX Update – November 27 – Sterling in Focus





    GBPUSD, H1


    Narrow ranges have been prevailing in risk-cautious trading. The USDIndex settled around the 92.00 level, above yesterday’s 12-week low at 91.84. EURUSD remained buoyant but off from the 12-day peak seen yesterday at 1.1942. Cable also held within its Thursday range. USDJPY ebbed to a four-day low at 103.91. The Yen was concurrently steady versus the Euro and the Pound, but posted respective two- and four-day lows against the Australian and Canadian Dollars. AUDUSD ticked fractionally higher, which was still sufficient to lift the pair into 12-week high terrain above 0.7380. NZDUSD posted a new 29-month peak at 0.7030. USDCAD remained heavy but just above recent 17-day lows. Bitcoin, which performed strongly this year on the back of dollar liquidity, found a toehold, but remained over 12% down on its recent highs.





    US markets will reopen after yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, but market conditions will remain on the thin side. President Trump said that he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, which may be as close to formally conceding the election as he will go. A sharp focus remains on EU and UK talks, with a face-to-face round reportedly taking place in London over the weekend. There are now reports that the EU parliament might convene as late as December 28 to ratify a deal, if necessary.


    The spectre of a no-deal hangs over proceedings, though the consensus, as judged by the ongoing stability of the Pound, remains for a narrow deal to be reached.





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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