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  1. #221
    Senior Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
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    9,393
    My Language
    English
    Date : 20th March 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2019.






    FX News Today


    * Fed day today – will they be as dovish as the markets seem to think? No change on the rates is expected but their musings on the future path of monetary policy, both conventional as well as with regards to its balance sheet position will be key for the USD and bond yields.


    * Ahead of today’s awaited Fed announcement the Asian session also experienced some profit taking as markets expected a dovish turn.


    * In the Asian session stocks traded narrowly mixed, with Chinese markets underperforming amid reports that China is pushing back against some of the US demands in trade talks.


    * Overall though traders see signs of eagerness to come to a deal among Chinese officials ahead of further trade talks as US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to China next week.


    * Topix and Nikkei managed to close with gains of 0.26% and 0.20% respectively. The ASX, however, was down -0.31% at the close and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses are also in the red.


    * US futures are little changed and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 58.97 per barrel.


    Charts of the Day





    Technician’s Corner


    * EURUSD traded mostly above the 1.1345 Resistance level, even though very close to it, in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Indicators are showing signs of consolidation.


    * GBPUSD is moving in a similar way as the EURUSD consolidating in the upper 1.32 area, for the 5th consecutive day, moving on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics support consolidation.


    * USDJPY moved slightly up on the leading indicator announcement, which showed worse than expected performance compared to the previous month. After etching to 111.60, the pair declined slightly, a move supported by both MACD and Stochastics.


    * XAUUSD is still above the $1300 mark, while some downwards momentum exists despite indicators pointing upwards. The Fed decision is expected to have a strong effect on Gold.


    Main Macro Events Today


    * Retail, Producer, and Consumer Price Indices (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Both the CPI and the RPI are expected to have registered the same growth as January, showing 2.5% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively. The PPI is expected to have grown by 4.3% y/y compared to 2.9% y/y last month.


    * Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD, GMT 18:00) – The eagerly awaited Fed decision is expected to shed light as to whether the 2 rate hike policy is to be continued or whether one rate hike is to be expected. Furthermore, comments on its potential balance sheet actions could also affect the markets.


    * Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 21:45) – New Zealand GDP is expected to have grown by 2.5% y/y in 2018Q4, compared to 2.6% in 2018Q3.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #222
    Senior Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
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    Not Specified
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    489
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    9,393
    My Language
    English
    Date : 21st March 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2019.






    FX News Today


    * The EU summit starts today and while Brexit is not the only topic on the agenda, it will likely dominate discussions, after PM May yesterday officially asked for an extension until June 30 and ruled out that she as Prime Minister would ask for a long extension.


    * EU council president Tusk in his official response made it clear that a short extension will only be possible if the Withdrawal Agreement has been backed by MPs in London.


    * Tusk did not rule out a long extension but as May has made it clear that she as PM won’t ask for one, that is currently not on the table.


    * After an interesting meeting yesterday, the Fed was even more dovish than expected, suggesting that no rate hikes would take place in 2019, although leaving the window open for some hikes in 2020.


    * Overall, the Fed commented that a patient, semi-neutral approach was the best at this point, after the cooling in growth and inflation. Justification was sought in slower growth, static payrolls, weaker household spending and a decline in overall inflation.


    * In addition, the Fed also confirmed plans to taper in May, and then end in September, the balance sheet runoff.


    * Trump, following the Fed, tweeted that tariffs on Chinese goods could be in place for a “substantial period”. Equities dropped, after increasing as a result of the Fed dovishness.


    * Dow closed down 0.55% and under its 20 SMA. Asian shares are less impacted, but Japan is closed today.


    Charts of the Day





    Technician’s Corner


    * EURUSD pushed higher than the 1.14 level on the Fed dovishness, with expected Resistance at 1.1433, and then at 1.15. Indicators are supportive of a consolidation/downtrend mode this morning.


    * GBPUSD is slightly regaining its losses, still moving around the 1.32 area, on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics can perhaps be interpreted as sending positive signals.


    * USDJPY dropped heavily on the Fed announcement, crossing the 110.72 Support and its 200HMA. The next Support level is at 110.34, even though the MACD and Stochastics do not appear to agree with the downwards trend.


    * XAUUSD gained significantly and is trading at $1319, while some downwards momentum continues to exist according to the indicators. The Fed decision did have a strong effect, as suggested yesterday, and the question is whether Gold can now break through the $1321 Resistance level, or will retrace to the $1313 Support.


    Main Macro Events Today


    * European Council Meeting (EUR, GBP, Full Day) – One of the most important European Council Meetings for the year, given that Theresa May will likely aim to provide justification for a Brexit delay.


    * Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February, employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 15K compared to 39K last month.


    * SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%.


    * Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have eased, growing by 0.2% on a m/m basis, compared to 1.2% in January.


    * BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions.


    * CPI inflation (JPY, GMT 23:30) – National Core CPI for Japan is expected to have declined to 0.3% m/m in February, compared to 0.4% in January.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #223
    Senior Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Not Specified
    Posts
    489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    9,393
    My Language
    English
    Date : 22nd March 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2019.






    FX News Today


    * Bund yields slightly higher in opening trade after cautious session on Asian stock markets.


    * EU hands UK another 2 weeks to avoid no-deal Brexit, eyes May 22 exit if deal passes, otherwise PM May must come up with a Plan B. If the deal gets through, an extension until May 22 has already been backed by the EU-27.


    * Japan’s nationwide core CPI undershot expectations at 0.7% y/y in February.


    * The European calendar focuses on Eurozone prel. March Manufacturing PMI readings.


    * Gold whipsawed back toward $1,300 by resurgent USD index near 96.5


    * EURUSD corrected back under 1.1400.


    * USDJPY up from 5-week low of 110.28.


    * WTI crude has settled slightly below $60.0 after posting a fresh 4-month high at $60.39


    Charts of the Day





    Technician’s Corner


    * EURUSD is slightly below Pivot Point of the day and the 38.2% Fib from the week’s peak, at 1.1385. A decisive break could lead towards 1.1410 Resistance. However indicators are not supportive, as they remain negatively configured.


    * GBPUSD topped at 1.3160, however the last 4 small body candles along with the latest doji candle suggest that upside movement might reach an end. Support at 1.3113 and 1.3000.


    * USDJPY dropped further into London open, down to 110.70. Indicators retreated from neutral zone, with RSI looking lower. The next Support level is at 110.64, and 110.36.


    Main Macro Events Today


    * Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally to 49.5 from 49.3 and the services reading to ease slightly to a still strong 52.7 from 52.8, which should leave the composite slightly higher at 52.0, versus 51.9 in the previous month.


    * Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to climb 0.5% in February (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in January, boosted by stronger gasoline prices and seasonal strength in February’s CPI.


    * Canadian Retail Sales – The Retail sales are anticipated at 0.3% in January after the 0.1% dip in December.


    * US Home Sales – Sales are estimated to grow 0.6% following a 1.0% December decline. The I/S(Inventory to Sales) ratio should edge down to 1.32, from 1.33.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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