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  1. #171
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    Fed's Barkin: Growth to continue though at a somewhat slower pace

    Below are some key takeaways, via Reuters, from the prepared speech delivered by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at an event organised by the Raleigh Chamber of Commerce.

    • Expects growth to continue though at a somewhat slower pace.
    • Trend core growth is only in the 1.9% range.
    • Hears concern partly driven by trade, politics, market, margin pressure.
    • Productivity slowdown is real, due partly to business underinvestment.

  2. #172
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    Date : 11th January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”.


    * ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous.
    On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views.


    * The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets.


    * US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy.


    * European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight.


    * US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets.


    * WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment.


    * US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex
    [/B]
    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #173
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    Date : 15th January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session amid further confirmation from Chinese officials that they will implement measures to boost the flagging economy.


    * Equities recovered as China pledges to support growth.
    Brexit: The most important day so far, with Parliament set to reject the government’s deal.


    * GBPUSD whipsawed by Brexit vote news; first backed, then undermined.


    * Yen has outperformed as global stocks tumble on big China trade data miss.


    * EURUSD ebbed to 5-day low at 1.1437, before rebounding to 1.1485.


    * Oil prices stabilised and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.23 per barrel.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * US PPI and Core – Expectations – December headline PPI is forecast dipping 0.1%, while the core rises 0.1%.


    * ECB President Draghi Speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.


    * Parliament Brexit Vote- Expectations –There seems be neither an agreement on PM May’s deal, nor on any of the feasible alternatives. And reportedly, EU officials who are not keen on a hard Brexit scenario are open to a 3-month extension to the Brexit schedule. See our Brexit Vote summary.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #174
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    Date : 16th January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * Brexit: A crushing defeat of May’s Brexit deal yesterday, brings new uncertainty about the political future in Europe. The odds for delay and/or new referendum are higher.


    * GBP bounced: Cable has advanced to the 1.2889 level, up from just under 1.2700 ahead of the vote.


    * China injected $51.6 bln via reverse repo operations – The biggest daily net cash injection from China’s central bank on record.


    * Japanese markets underperformed and Nikkei was down -0.55%.


    * Yen weaker amid risk-back-on sentiment


    * Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at $52.26 per barrel.


    * German Dec HICP inflation confirmed at 1.7% y/y, leaving 2018 HICP at 1.9%


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * BoE’s Governor Carney speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.




    * UK Retail Price Index and Inflation – Expectations –The headline CPI is expected to come in unchanged at 1.8% y/y and December Retail Price Index, which we expect to rise by 0.5% after falling in November.




    * UK PPI and Core – Expectations –December headline PPI is forecast dipping 2.1% y/y, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.2%.


    * PM May’s Leadership Challenge – Conservative Party lawmakers will hold voting to express confidence in the PM May Government.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #175
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    Date : 17th January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29.


    * EU officials have signalled some willingness for further talks and to an extension of the Brexit deadline.


    * Stock markets have moved down from session highs, as caution still prevails amid the multitude of risks: Earnings season ( even if its good so far) , concerns over US-Sino tensions, slowing world growth, while Brexit developments remain the key focus in Europe.


    * Fed’s Beige Book: expansion still moderate, but all districts reported tight labor.


    * USDJPY scaled to 1-wk high at 109.19; EURUSD has been narrowly orbiting 1.14.


    * WTI future pulled back from a session high of $52.36 and is trading at USD 51.95 per barrel, with record high crude production in the US keeping a lid on prices.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * Eurozone’s Final CPI and Core – Expectations – Overall Eurozone HICP should be stable at 1.6% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary report and down from 1.9% y/y in November.


    * US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index is seen rebounding to 10.0 in January, after December’s 3.5 point slide to a 2-year low of 9.4.


    * US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated inching up 1k to 217k in the week ended January


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #176
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    Date : 18th January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29.


    * Treasury yields jumped and global stock markets rallied on fresh hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks.


    * WSJ reported that the US is weighing lifting tariffs to hasten a trade deal and calm markets.


    * Topix and Nikkei are up 0.93% and 1.29% respectively. GER30 and UK100 futures also moved higher in tandem with US futures.


    * US Equities also surged on Morgan Stanley earnings miss.


    * USDJPY popped to better than 2-week highs of 109.40. USDCAD fell sharply to 1.3246 from over 1.3300.


    * Swiss Franc down vs most currencies, following dovish remarks by SNB’s Jordan – “too early for a change” as he mentioned.


    * Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * UK Retail Sales – Expectations – December retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7% (median -0.5%) after rising 1.4% in November.


    * US Industrial Production & Prelim UoM – Expectations – Industrial Production is seen rising another 0.3% in December after a solid 0.6% gain in November. Preliminary January Michigan sentiment should decline to 96.0 after the surprise increase to 98.3 in December.


    * Canadian CPI and core – Expectations – A 0.3% m/m drop in CPI during December is anticipated, after the 0.4% plunge in November, with weaker gasoline prices again projected to fuel the decline. The core CPI measures all ran at 1.9% y/y in November, while inflation should either hold at those rates or tick lower.


    * Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives his views on policy and the economy. Philly Fed’s Harker (nonvoter) speaks at a symposium on prosperity.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #177
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    Date : 21st January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * Asian stock markets managed to post modest gains, despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 6.4% y/y, which left the full year rate at 6.6%.


    * Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.26% respectively, and the Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up 0.5%.


    * Hope that trade tensions will eventually be resolved in talks continues to underpin sentiment, with some room for further gains after markets priced in quite extreme risks at the end of last year.


    * Reports from Friday indicate that China is planning to ramp up purchases of US goods although a Bloomberg report suggests that both sides are making little progress on the key issue of intellectual property protection.


    * All of these dampened the move higher in Asia and saw US futures heading south.


    * The front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.99 per barrel after reaching a session high of USD 54.17.


    * There is a US Bank Holiday today, with emphasis turned to Sterling.


    Charts of the Day





    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #178
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    Date : 22nd January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * A gloomy IMF outlook: Forecasts for major economies revived recession fears globally and saw risk aversion picking up again.


    * The IMF warned that the Sino-US trade war, a “no-deal” Brexit and a weakening European economy could lead to a sharp global slowdown.


    * Topix and Nikkei lost -0.63% and -0.47% respectively.
    President Trump calling on China to stop “playing around” and do a “real” trade deal -Added to the negative backdrop for markets.


    * The Earnings season is also in full swing and reports from UBS this morning disappointed and only added to lingering risk aversion.


    * USDJPY edged out 2-session low under 109.40; Yen firmer amid risk-off vibe.


    * EURUSD ebbed to 18-day lows below 1.1350, driven by firming in the Dollar.


    * WTI Oil prices back under $54.0 after hitting 7-week high yesterday at $54.39.


    * Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y – Expectations – Average weekly earnings are expected to remain perky in the three months to November, expected at +3.3% y/y in both the with- and ex-bonus figures.
    UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.


    B]*[/B] German ZEW Economic Sentiment– Expectations – Seen falling back to -18.3 from -17.5.


    B]*[/B] Canadian Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales – Expectations – Manufacturing shipment values are expected to drop 1.0% m/m in November after the 0.1% dip in October. Wholesale shipment values are seen falling 0.5% m/m in November after jumping 1.0% in October.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #179
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    Date : 23rd January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%.


    * Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session.


    * The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively.


    * The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool.


    * Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”.


    * Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown.


    * Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%.


    * World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.


    * Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #180
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    Date : 24th January 2019.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2019.






    FX News Today


    * 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.216% in opening trade. Treasury yields also fell back from overnight highs and are now down -0.2 bp at 2.739%, while JGB yields remain up 0.8 bp at 0.001%.


    * Stock markets mostly managed to move higher in Asia overnight (excluding the Nikkei which closed with a loss of 0.09%) and DAX futures are also up, while US futures are narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is swinging between gains and losses.


    * Brexit developments remain in focus, but while in the UK officials continue to struggle to find a consensus on the way forward, the focus in the Eurozone turns to the ECB meeting today.


    * Rates are widely expected to remain on hold and the guidance little changed, but Draghi is likely to sound much more cautious on the growth and inflation outlook, which should underpin stock markets.


    * Norges Bank is also expected to hold rates steady and the data calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings, which are expected to show further weakness in the preliminary release for January.


    * US earnings reports have helped to underpin risk appetite in recent days, while the ongoing government shutdown is preventing timely data releases and leaving investors focused on trade talk developments, company news and in Europe, Brexit jitters.


    Charts of the Day





    Main Macro Events Today


    * EU Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – The Services PMI is expected to come out at 51.5 in January, compared to 51.2 in December. This is expected to have a positive impact on the Composite PMI, which is expected to rise to 51.4 compared to 51.1 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in December.


    * World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.


    * ECB Interest Rate Decision – ECB is not expected to proceed with any changes in the interest rate yet as it is has just started evaluating the effects from the end of QE in December. However, communication could provide important information regarding the future path of policy.


    * US Jobless Claims – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 220k compared to 213k last week, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly to 1.735M, compared to 1.737M last week.


    * US Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – Reductions in PMIs are expected in all sectors, in conjunction with the overall perception of a slowdown in the US, and the ongoing government shutdown.


    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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