Daily Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th March 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2018.


FX News Today


European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields traded mostly steady to lower as stock markets headed south. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.043%, the Chinese 10-year underperformed and yields are up 0.9 bp, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 2.839%. A fresh shakeup in the Trump administration rekindled trade war concerns and worries about geopolitical risks and weighed on stock markets, which headed broadly south in Asia, after already retreating on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.45%, the Nikkei was down -0.87% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.32% and -0.225 respectively and the ASX 200 lost -0.66%. U.S. stock futures are also heading south and oil prices are little changed at USD 60.69 per barrel. In Europe today, German Feb HICP inflation confirmed at 1.2% y/y as expected, with prices up 0.4% m/m. The breakdown confirmed that the dip from 1.4% y/y in January was mainly due to lower energy and food price inflation. This ties in with the steady core inflation reading in the preliminary Eurozone HICP rate and backs views that despite these monthly variations inflation is continuing to trend higher, especially with wage deals looking quite strong in Germany.


FX Update:: USDJPY has remained heavy, settling around 106.50 after a short-lived lift to an intraday high at 106.74 ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier. Broader dollar softness is at play, with market narratives pointing to political uncertainty following Trump’s dual sackings of his foreign secretary, Tillerson, and an aide, John McEntee — the latter over alleged “serious financial crimes.” The yen has been trading mixed in narrow ranges versus other currencies. BoJ Governor Kuroda maintained his recent re-commitment to a dovish script, saying earlier that a withdrawal from stimulus is not being considered as the 2% inflation target remains far from being achieved. The BoJ released the minutes from the January policy meeting, though to little market impact given their rear view nature (given that the central bank releases a summary sheet a week after policy meetings, and given the timeliness of recent BoJ member testimonies and communications). In data, Japan’s core machinery orders rebound by 8.2% m/m in January after a 9.3% contraction in the month prior. The data is volatile month-to-month and tends not to carry much market-impacting potential, as proved the case today.


Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today


* ECB President Draghi Speech – Due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt.


* ECB’s Praet and Constancio Speeches – Constancio and Praet is scheduled will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place.


* US PPI and Retail Sales – PPI is forecast sinking 0.1% in February, with core seen rising 0.2%. Here though, the 12-month pace should pick up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%. While not as important as the consumer price data, it could raise eyebrows. Retail sales are seen returning a healthy 0.3% or 0.4% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year.


* Crude Oil Inventories


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th March 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2018.


FX News Today


European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.


FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.


Main Macro Events Today


* SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty.


* US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72.


* ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th March 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2018.


FX News Today


European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.


FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800




Main Macro Events Today


* EU Labour cost


* EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.


* US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously.






Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.





Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th March 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2018.


Main Macro Events This Week


It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.


United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.


Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday), the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).


Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.


Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.


The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.


UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).


Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.


Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.

FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures.

• German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.

FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y

• Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln.

• FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4.

• FOMC Press Conference

• RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd March 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2018.





FX News Today


European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.


FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.


Charts of the Day





Main Macro Events Today


* Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.


* UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.


* BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.


* US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd March 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2018.





FX News Today


European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.


FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.


Charts of the Day





Main Macro Events Today


* US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.


* CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.


* CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.




Support and Resistance levels


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 26th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th March 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

The pendulum has swung back wickedly to trade politics after President Trump announced tariffs on $50 bln in Chinese tech and telecom imports. In turn, the Chinese retaliated on $3 bln in largely agricultural items, but hinted at more to come, including mulling “all options” when asked about ongoing Treasury purchases. Perhaps once the full scope of our tangled economic relationship is laid bare, both sides will have a greater appreciation for its complexity and benefits, while addressing its evident shortcomings as well. Meanwhile, Trump also grudgingly signed off on a $1.3 tln budget deal, which boosted military spending among other things, but didn’t have everything on his wish list.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will connect the dots the week after the Fed lifted theirs, starting with updates (Monday) on the Chicago Fed national activity index for February and the March Dallas Fed index. January Case Shiller home prices may slip (Tuesday) to 204.3 from 204.5, while consumer confidence is expected to hold up near 130.00 in March from 130.8 in February and the Richmond Fed index may sink to 20 in March from 28. MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$73.6 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.8% vs 2.5% (Wednesday), along with NAR pending home sales and EIA energy inventories. Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week (Thursday), with personal income forecast to rise 0.5% in February and spending seen +0.3% core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 (Thursday), while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March. U.S. Markets will be closed for Good Friday.

Canada: The highlight is January GDP (Thursday), expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.1% gain in December. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is projected to rise 0.1% in February (m/m, nsa) after a 0.3% gain in January as the dip in gasoline prices restrains growth in the index. January average weekly earnings (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the identical 0.2% gain in December. The Bank of Canada has been of the view that some slack remains in the labour market while the economy is operating at full capacity. The CFIB’s Business Barometer survey of small and medium business sentiment for March is due Thursday. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. The next event is the release of the Business Outlook Survey on April 9, followed by the rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report on April 18. Canada’s stocks and bond markets are closed for Good Friday, March 30.

Europe: Europe will start to hunker down going into the long Easter Holiday weekend, but the calendar still holds key data releases. The German HICP (Thursday) firming back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y, while the French rate (Friday) is seen lifting to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, the Italian rate (Friday) to 0.8% y/y from 0.5%. This should leave the preliminary March Eurozone rate, due April 4, to come back to around 1.4/1.5%. This is still far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2%, but officials are more confident now that underlying inflation has turned a corner and is on the way higher.

This is partly a reflection of increasingly tight labor markets, especially in Germany, where the official jobless number (Thursday) is likely to dip by a further -15K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment. PMIs, ZEW and Ifo surveys all declined in March and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance. Still, while there is some disagreement over the degree of slack remaining in the economy, and how urgent is the need to phase out of exceptional measures, it is still pretty clear that the ECB is preparing to end net asset purchases by the end of the year. Officials don’t seem in a hurry though to commit to such a step just yet, however, and if volatility remains high, Draghi could delay a clarification of the future of QE until July, still well ahead of the end of the current QE schedule in September.The data calendar meanwhile also includes Eurozone M3 numbers, German import price inflation and consumer confidence as well as Italian confidence data and industrial orders and finally French consumer spending numbers.

UK: The calendar brings, in chronologic order, mortgage lending data (Monday), the monthly Nationwide house price indicator and the latest CBI distributive trades survey (both Wednesday), and Gfk consumer confidence, the third and final release of Q4 GDP data, Q4 current account figures, and monthly lending data from the BoE (all on Thursday). From these, the CBI retail survey expected to show a realised sales headline of 7 in March, after 8 in the month prior, the Gfk consumer confidence to remain unchanged a -10 in March, and GDP growth to remain unrealised at 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y. In-line outcomes would not likely impact sterling markets much. The markets will be closed Friday through Monday for Easter.

Japan: In Japan, growth has shown signs of slowing after the better than expected Q4 GDP pace of 1.6%. And the erosion in business sentiment could portend further slippage, especially on regional trade worries as well as the firmer JPY. Additionally, the stronger yen could thwart the BoJ’s reflation attempt. This week’s data will help clarify the outlook. February services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to dip to a 0.6% y/y pace from 0.7%. February retail sales (Thursday) are seen climbing to a 1.0% y/y clip from 0.4% for large retailers, and to 2.0% y/y from 1.5% overall. Tokyo March CPI (Friday) is pencilled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y overall, and 1.0% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. February unemployment rate (Friday) is forecast at a steady 2.4%, while the job offers/seekers ratio likely remained steady at 1.59. February preliminary industrial production (Friday) is expected to bounce to a 6.0% y/y rate from -6.6%, though a lot of the swing could be a function of Lunar New Year distortions. February housing starts (Friday) are estimated to have improved to a -6.0% y/y pace after plunging to -13.2% previously (perhaps on poor weather). February construction orders are also due Friday.

Australia: The data calendar has private sector credit (Thursday), expected to improve to a 5.0% y/y pace in February from 4.9% in January. The usually busy Reserve Bank of Australia has nothing on the docket this week. The next event is the April 3 board meeting, which no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.0 bp at 0.528% in early trade, vs a 1.5 bp gain in 10-year JGB yields. Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp, but have also lifted from the lows seen during the Asian session, as stock markets bounced back in Asia. Peripheral bonds are outperforming as risk appetite improves and European stock futures are also rallying. The GER30 future is up more than 1.8% as risk appetite strengthens amid hopes that U.S. posturing on tariffs is primarily a tool to gain trade concessions and won’t trigger and all out trade war. Still, volatility is likely to remain high and sentiment fragile which is underpinning volatility on markets. The data calendar picks up today. Released at the start of the session German import price inflation came in weaker than expected. Spanish HICP numbers will also be watched closely and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment is expected to dip again.

FX Update: The yen posted fresh lows today, losing ground for a second straight day amid a backdrop of reviving risk appetite and associated gains in global stock markets. USDJPY clocked a three-session high of 105.75 in Tokyo, about a 35 pip gain on the New York closing levels, putting in some further distance from the 16-month low seen on Friday at 104.64. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action. There was no data or other news of market-moving note today. A belief in market narratives that Trump’s protectionism push will be more bluff than buster, with initial grandiose threats giving way to watering down, exemptions and negotiation, have been underpinning stock markets this week, and seeing the yen’s safe haven premium unwind. Elsewhere, the dollar has largely consolidated near lows posted yesterday against the euro and many other currencies. EURUSD has been settled near 1.2450 after yesterday seeing a six-week high at 1.2461. Cable has seen a similar action. AUDUSD and NZDUSD managed fresh highs before backing off. USDCAD edged out a two-session low at 1.2828.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone ESI – is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance on the phasing out of QE. Bundesbank President Weidmann may be pushing for a firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, but Draghi and Praet seem less in a hurry and with markets still jittery officials could well wait until July before clarifying the future of QE beyond September.

* CB Consumer Confidence – is expected to hold up near 130.40 in March from 130.8 in February.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.