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Thread: US Dollar

  1. #21
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    Dollar down on U.S. recession fears

    The dollar came under renewed pressure on Wednesday as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve caused concern about a possible U.S. recession.
    The greenback has enjoyed months of unrivaled performance against its peers but that could be undermined by growing concern about slowing U.S. growth.
    Those worries have pushed two-year yields above those of longer-dated, 5-year notes for the first time in more than a decade.
    The so-called “inversion” of the yield curve sounds an alarm to many investors about a looming U.S. economic slowdown.
    “In the initial phase of the inversion of the yield curve markets are worried and react more aggressively to weak data than to strong data,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.
    “I think the dollar can be in correction-mode in a yield-curve inversion environment.”
    Against a basket of six rivals, the dollar edged down 0.1 percent to 96.832. The currency has fallen 0.4 percent this week but is only half a percent off a 17-month peak of 97.693 touched on Nov. 12.
    The recent weakness in the dollar comes against the backdrop of a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade conflict agreed over the weekend which has bolstered investor confidence in riskier currencies versus the safe-haven greenback.
    The dollar has been under pressure since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last Wednesday that U.S. interest rates were nearing neutral levels, which markets interpreted as signalling a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.
    The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1358, buoyed by a report that European Central Bank policymakers are exploring ways to withdraw stimulus in 2019.
    Without a resolution on the European Union’s dispute with Italy over its proposed budget, or euro-specific positive developments, euro/dollar is likely trade in a range of $1.12 to $1.16, said analysts at Commerzbank.



    The Australian dollar slumped more than 0.7 percent against the greenback as disappointing economic data further dimmed the chance of a rise in rates. The Aussie moved sharply off a four-month top of $0.7394 hit early in the week.
    The Aussie, often viewed as a barometer of Chinese growth, had risen early in the session after China’s Commerce Ministry said that a Chinese trade and economics delegation had held a successful meeting with the United States.
    Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.2 percent to 112.97 yen, clawing back some of the previous session’s losses, when it booked its biggest one-day drop since July 20.


    On Tuesday, the greenback shed nearly 0.8 percent against the yen, which acts as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and financial turmoil as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation.
    U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for a national day of mourning for former U.S. President George H.W. Bush, who died on Friday.

  2. #22
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    U.S. Dollar Falls After Inflation Data

    The U.S. dollar was lower on Wednesday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019.
    The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09 as of 10:11 AM ET (15:11 GMT).
    The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week.
    Meanwhile, the pound was higher, as investors bet that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will survive a vote of no confidence. May's party reached the threshold needed to trigger the vote and is scheduled to take place on Wednesday evening between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM London time (1:00 PM ET to 3:00 PM ET).
    GBP/USD jumped 1.2% to 1.2620.
    The dollar was slightly lower against the safe-heaven Japanese yen, with USD/JPYfalling 0.07% to 113.29. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion.
    The euro was higher due to the lower U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD rising 0.4% to 1.1359.
    Elsewhere, NZD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.6853 while AUD/USD was up 0.2% to 0.7219. The Canadian dollar increased with USD/CAD down 0.3% to 1.3351.

  3. #23
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    Dollar remains strong in forex markets as new week opens

    The US dollar managed to hit the ground running during the first few hours of this week’s forex trading.
    The dollar index, which assesses the greenback’s performance in relation to various other key global currencies, hovered in the 97.44 region as global trading opened on Monday. This was near the 97.71 level it reached as last week closed – a move which marked a 19-month high.
    The dollar’s success came in large part due to problematic economic data from other major powerhouses, such as Germany and China.
    As a result of the economic uncertainty caused by this and other developments, traders are believed to now be looking at the dollar as a “safe haven” currency investment destination once again.
    Elsewhere, the British pound suffered as the Brexit debate continued amid further uncertainty over what Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to do next. It is believed that parliament will now hold its key vote on the withdrawal in 2019, suggesting that instability could rumble on.
    The pound was down 0.02% against the US dollar, reaching $1.2582.
    With a new week now underway, there’s a lot for forex market traders to keep an eye on.
    Today (Monday) has a number of economic calendar events. At 3pm GMT, the US National Association of Home Builders will release its housing market index covering December. This is expected to remain at its current position of 60.
    Into tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its latest meeting at 12.30am GMT. This will come at the same time as the Australian Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the government.
    At 9am GMT, German IFO expectations data for December is expected. This indicator is expected to show a slight drop from 98.7 to 98.2.
    IFO December business climate data for Germany is expected at the same time. This is due to drop from 102.0 to 101.7.
    Canadian manufacturing shipments data for October is due at 1.30pm GMT. Month on month, this is expected to rise slightly from 0.2% to 0.3%.
    All eyes will be on Asia later in the day, as Japanese export and import data for November is expected at 11.50pm GMT. Export levels are forecast to drop year on year from 8.2% to 1.8%, while imports are also expected to go down from 19.9% to 11.5%.
    On Wednesday, German producer price index information for November is expected at 7am GMT. This is expected to show a year on year drop from 3.3% to 3.2%, and a month on month drop from 0.2% to -0.1%.
    A range of key Canadian indicators are due at 1.30pm GMT. The country’s consumer price index for November is expected to show a month on month drop from 0.3% to 0.1%, while the Bank of Canada will release its own core consumer price index at the same time. Forecasts for the latter have not yet been released but were last recorded at 0.4%.

  4. #24
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    U.S. Dollar Rises But Still Under Pressure After Fed Minutes

    The greenback was slightly higher on Thursday after dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve in the previous session caused a steep decline in the dollar.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 94.94 as of 5:00 AM ET (10:00 GMT).
    Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting showed that many policymakers are in favor of rates staying steady this year, increasing expectations that there will be no hikes in 2019. The dovish tone drove the dollar down to an almost three-month low of 94.63.
    “Basically the dollar has run out of things to make it go higher," said Erik Nelson, currency strategist at Wells Fargo.
    "The Fed has told us that they're probably at or near a point where they're going to pause interest rate hikes and we forecast the boost we saw to U.S. growth last year is definitely going to fade,” he added.
    Meanwhile, investors are also looking ahead to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is speaking at 12:45 PM ET (17:45 GMT) at the Economic Club of Washington.
    The euro was down due to the higher dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.15% to 1.1523. Sterling was also strained, as Brexit woes continue to dampen investor sentiment. GBP/USD slipped 0.19% to 1.2761.
    Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell after jumping to a high of 1.3247 on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada kept rates steady. USD/CAD rose 0.18% to 1.3231.
    The Australian dollar increased, with AUD/USD rising 0.17% to 0.7182 and NZD/USDflat at 0.6785.

  5. #25
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    US: Political risk likely to become a drag on the economy

    Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the US political situation appears to be a potential drag on the health of the economy.
    Key Quotes
    “Congress is now more divided with Democrats in control of the House. The Trump political agenda has shifted to border wall funding, and this has led to a government funding shut-down. There is a risk that this issue continues to drag on for some time and distract policymakers from other policy that might otherwise do something to support economic growth; such as infrastructure spending. The shut-down, if significantly prolonged could also more directly dampen economic confidence in the USA.”
    “President Trump remains a highly divisive figure in US politics. It is possible to see partisan politics become increasingly poisonous over the next two years of Trump’s four-year term, with little substantive achieved in government. This could undermine confidence as the economy loses momentum and fiscal balance worsens.”

  6. #26
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    Dollar remains steady as forex markets reactivate for a new week

    The US dollar managed to avoid any plunges in value as the Asian session trading got underway on Monday.
    However, it’s likely that any gains made by the dollar over the course of the day will be restrained for the same reason that the currency suffered last week – namely the assumption that the Federal Reserve central bank will fail to boost interest rate levels in 2019.
    The dollar index, a tool which determines the value of the dollar in comparison to a basket of six other global currencies, managed to rise to 95.68 as the week’s trading kicked off.
    Currencies which declined in value during the first few hours of the week’s trading, meanwhile, included the Australian dollar. This dropped by 0.2% against the US dollar.
    The New Zealand dollar also suffered, albeit to a lesser extent. It dropped 0.1% compared to the US dollar.
    The euro also dropped, reporting a 0.1% dip to $1.1460 compared to the US dollar as trading began.
    With a new week in the foreign exchange trading markets now underway, a fresh look at the economic calendar indicates that there’s a lot to watch out for.
    Today (Monday) will see an expected slowdown in the Japanese yen due to the Coming-of-Age Day bank holiday in Japan.
    Euro traders could be busy, however, as industrial production s.a. figures for the month of November will be released at 10am GMT. These are likely to show a rise from 0.2% to -1% on a month on month basis.
    Looking ahead to Tuesday, the vote in the British parliament on Brexit is likely to dominate the day and could well cause problems for both the pound and the euro. The exact timing of this vote is currently unclear.
    In France, consumer price index data for December will be released at 7.45am GMT. Year on year, this is expected to reveal a rise from 1.9% to 2.2%.
    American producer price index information for December is expected at 1.30pm GMT. Excluding food and energy, this is forecast to show no change from the previous position of 2.7% on a year on year basis.
    At 3pm GMT, all eyes will be back on Europe as the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi speaks.
    At 6pm GMT, there’ll be further international central banker action as Esther L. George, who is the president and CEO of the US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will speak.
    On Wednesday, the main event in Europe is likely to be the harmonised index of consumer prices for December in Germany. This is due out at 7am and is likely to remain at its previous position of 1.7%.
    Core consumer price index information for December is expected out of Britain at 9.30am GMT. Year on year, this is expected to remain the same at 1.8%.
    On Thursday, meanwhile, Europe-wide consumer price index data for December is expected at 10am GMT. Year on year, a continuation of the previous position is forecast here too, with this figure due to remain steady at 1.6%.

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