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Thread: US Dollar

  1. #21
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    Dollar down on U.S. recession fears

    The dollar came under renewed pressure on Wednesday as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve caused concern about a possible U.S. recession.
    The greenback has enjoyed months of unrivaled performance against its peers but that could be undermined by growing concern about slowing U.S. growth.
    Those worries have pushed two-year yields above those of longer-dated, 5-year notes for the first time in more than a decade.
    The so-called “inversion” of the yield curve sounds an alarm to many investors about a looming U.S. economic slowdown.
    “In the initial phase of the inversion of the yield curve markets are worried and react more aggressively to weak data than to strong data,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.
    “I think the dollar can be in correction-mode in a yield-curve inversion environment.”
    Against a basket of six rivals, the dollar edged down 0.1 percent to 96.832. The currency has fallen 0.4 percent this week but is only half a percent off a 17-month peak of 97.693 touched on Nov. 12.
    The recent weakness in the dollar comes against the backdrop of a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade conflict agreed over the weekend which has bolstered investor confidence in riskier currencies versus the safe-haven greenback.
    The dollar has been under pressure since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last Wednesday that U.S. interest rates were nearing neutral levels, which markets interpreted as signalling a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.
    The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1358, buoyed by a report that European Central Bank policymakers are exploring ways to withdraw stimulus in 2019.
    Without a resolution on the European Union’s dispute with Italy over its proposed budget, or euro-specific positive developments, euro/dollar is likely trade in a range of $1.12 to $1.16, said analysts at Commerzbank.



    The Australian dollar slumped more than 0.7 percent against the greenback as disappointing economic data further dimmed the chance of a rise in rates. The Aussie moved sharply off a four-month top of $0.7394 hit early in the week.
    The Aussie, often viewed as a barometer of Chinese growth, had risen early in the session after China’s Commerce Ministry said that a Chinese trade and economics delegation had held a successful meeting with the United States.
    Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.2 percent to 112.97 yen, clawing back some of the previous session’s losses, when it booked its biggest one-day drop since July 20.


    On Tuesday, the greenback shed nearly 0.8 percent against the yen, which acts as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and financial turmoil as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation.
    U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for a national day of mourning for former U.S. President George H.W. Bush, who died on Friday.

  2. #22
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    U.S. Dollar Falls After Inflation Data

    The U.S. dollar was lower on Wednesday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019.
    The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09 as of 10:11 AM ET (15:11 GMT).
    The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week.
    Meanwhile, the pound was higher, as investors bet that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will survive a vote of no confidence. May's party reached the threshold needed to trigger the vote and is scheduled to take place on Wednesday evening between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM London time (1:00 PM ET to 3:00 PM ET).
    GBP/USD jumped 1.2% to 1.2620.
    The dollar was slightly lower against the safe-heaven Japanese yen, with USD/JPYfalling 0.07% to 113.29. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion.
    The euro was higher due to the lower U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD rising 0.4% to 1.1359.
    Elsewhere, NZD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.6853 while AUD/USD was up 0.2% to 0.7219. The Canadian dollar increased with USD/CAD down 0.3% to 1.3351.

  3. #23
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    Dollar remains strong in forex markets as new week opens

    The US dollar managed to hit the ground running during the first few hours of this week’s forex trading.
    The dollar index, which assesses the greenback’s performance in relation to various other key global currencies, hovered in the 97.44 region as global trading opened on Monday. This was near the 97.71 level it reached as last week closed – a move which marked a 19-month high.
    The dollar’s success came in large part due to problematic economic data from other major powerhouses, such as Germany and China.
    As a result of the economic uncertainty caused by this and other developments, traders are believed to now be looking at the dollar as a “safe haven” currency investment destination once again.
    Elsewhere, the British pound suffered as the Brexit debate continued amid further uncertainty over what Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to do next. It is believed that parliament will now hold its key vote on the withdrawal in 2019, suggesting that instability could rumble on.
    The pound was down 0.02% against the US dollar, reaching $1.2582.
    With a new week now underway, there’s a lot for forex market traders to keep an eye on.
    Today (Monday) has a number of economic calendar events. At 3pm GMT, the US National Association of Home Builders will release its housing market index covering December. This is expected to remain at its current position of 60.
    Into tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its latest meeting at 12.30am GMT. This will come at the same time as the Australian Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the government.
    At 9am GMT, German IFO expectations data for December is expected. This indicator is expected to show a slight drop from 98.7 to 98.2.
    IFO December business climate data for Germany is expected at the same time. This is due to drop from 102.0 to 101.7.
    Canadian manufacturing shipments data for October is due at 1.30pm GMT. Month on month, this is expected to rise slightly from 0.2% to 0.3%.
    All eyes will be on Asia later in the day, as Japanese export and import data for November is expected at 11.50pm GMT. Export levels are forecast to drop year on year from 8.2% to 1.8%, while imports are also expected to go down from 19.9% to 11.5%.
    On Wednesday, German producer price index information for November is expected at 7am GMT. This is expected to show a year on year drop from 3.3% to 3.2%, and a month on month drop from 0.2% to -0.1%.
    A range of key Canadian indicators are due at 1.30pm GMT. The country’s consumer price index for November is expected to show a month on month drop from 0.3% to 0.1%, while the Bank of Canada will release its own core consumer price index at the same time. Forecasts for the latter have not yet been released but were last recorded at 0.4%.

  4. #24
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    U.S. Dollar Rises But Still Under Pressure After Fed Minutes

    The greenback was slightly higher on Thursday after dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve in the previous session caused a steep decline in the dollar.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 94.94 as of 5:00 AM ET (10:00 GMT).
    Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting showed that many policymakers are in favor of rates staying steady this year, increasing expectations that there will be no hikes in 2019. The dovish tone drove the dollar down to an almost three-month low of 94.63.
    “Basically the dollar has run out of things to make it go higher," said Erik Nelson, currency strategist at Wells Fargo.
    "The Fed has told us that they're probably at or near a point where they're going to pause interest rate hikes and we forecast the boost we saw to U.S. growth last year is definitely going to fade,” he added.
    Meanwhile, investors are also looking ahead to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is speaking at 12:45 PM ET (17:45 GMT) at the Economic Club of Washington.
    The euro was down due to the higher dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.15% to 1.1523. Sterling was also strained, as Brexit woes continue to dampen investor sentiment. GBP/USD slipped 0.19% to 1.2761.
    Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell after jumping to a high of 1.3247 on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada kept rates steady. USD/CAD rose 0.18% to 1.3231.
    The Australian dollar increased, with AUD/USD rising 0.17% to 0.7182 and NZD/USDflat at 0.6785.

  5. #25
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    US: Political risk likely to become a drag on the economy

    Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the US political situation appears to be a potential drag on the health of the economy.
    Key Quotes
    “Congress is now more divided with Democrats in control of the House. The Trump political agenda has shifted to border wall funding, and this has led to a government funding shut-down. There is a risk that this issue continues to drag on for some time and distract policymakers from other policy that might otherwise do something to support economic growth; such as infrastructure spending. The shut-down, if significantly prolonged could also more directly dampen economic confidence in the USA.”
    “President Trump remains a highly divisive figure in US politics. It is possible to see partisan politics become increasingly poisonous over the next two years of Trump’s four-year term, with little substantive achieved in government. This could undermine confidence as the economy loses momentum and fiscal balance worsens.”

  6. #26
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    Dollar remains steady as forex markets reactivate for a new week

    The US dollar managed to avoid any plunges in value as the Asian session trading got underway on Monday.
    However, it’s likely that any gains made by the dollar over the course of the day will be restrained for the same reason that the currency suffered last week – namely the assumption that the Federal Reserve central bank will fail to boost interest rate levels in 2019.
    The dollar index, a tool which determines the value of the dollar in comparison to a basket of six other global currencies, managed to rise to 95.68 as the week’s trading kicked off.
    Currencies which declined in value during the first few hours of the week’s trading, meanwhile, included the Australian dollar. This dropped by 0.2% against the US dollar.
    The New Zealand dollar also suffered, albeit to a lesser extent. It dropped 0.1% compared to the US dollar.
    The euro also dropped, reporting a 0.1% dip to $1.1460 compared to the US dollar as trading began.
    With a new week in the foreign exchange trading markets now underway, a fresh look at the economic calendar indicates that there’s a lot to watch out for.
    Today (Monday) will see an expected slowdown in the Japanese yen due to the Coming-of-Age Day bank holiday in Japan.
    Euro traders could be busy, however, as industrial production s.a. figures for the month of November will be released at 10am GMT. These are likely to show a rise from 0.2% to -1% on a month on month basis.
    Looking ahead to Tuesday, the vote in the British parliament on Brexit is likely to dominate the day and could well cause problems for both the pound and the euro. The exact timing of this vote is currently unclear.
    In France, consumer price index data for December will be released at 7.45am GMT. Year on year, this is expected to reveal a rise from 1.9% to 2.2%.
    American producer price index information for December is expected at 1.30pm GMT. Excluding food and energy, this is forecast to show no change from the previous position of 2.7% on a year on year basis.
    At 3pm GMT, all eyes will be back on Europe as the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi speaks.
    At 6pm GMT, there’ll be further international central banker action as Esther L. George, who is the president and CEO of the US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will speak.
    On Wednesday, the main event in Europe is likely to be the harmonised index of consumer prices for December in Germany. This is due out at 7am and is likely to remain at its previous position of 1.7%.
    Core consumer price index information for December is expected out of Britain at 9.30am GMT. Year on year, this is expected to remain the same at 1.8%.
    On Thursday, meanwhile, Europe-wide consumer price index data for December is expected at 10am GMT. Year on year, a continuation of the previous position is forecast here too, with this figure due to remain steady at 1.6%.

  7. #27
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    Dollar steady near 2-week high on recovery in risk appetite


    The dollar hovered near a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, supported by a sustained recovery in investor risk appetite which nudged U.S. bond yields higher.
    The dollar index, which measures its strength against a group of six major currencies, was steady at 96.315 after climbing to 96.394 percent on Friday, its strongest since Jan. 4.


    Hopes for a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, a more dovish-sounding Federal Reserve and optimism that Britain could avoid a “No-Deal” Brexit are some of the factors that have fanned the return in investor risk appetite, which went into a deep freeze in December amid a slide in global equity markets.
    Along with a decline in Treasury yields earlier in the month which had accompanied the retreat in equities, the dollar index had slipped to a three-month low near 95.00 on Jan. 10.
    “The dollar index is clearly on a recovery track. The currency was stuck in a downtrend at the start of January but is now being bought back against its peers such as the yen, euro, pound and the Aussie,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.
    “Whether the current ‘risk on’ supporting the dollar can continue will likely depend on how U.S. corporate earnings turn out. The United States and China falling out again over trade issues and volatile U.S. politics still remain the main potential risk factors.”
    The dollar was down 0.15 percent at 109.62 yen, taking a pause after climbing to a three-week high of 109.895 on Friday. The greenback had gained more than 1 percent against its Japanese peer last week.

    The euro was a shade higher at $1.1373 but in close reach of a two-week low of $1.1353 brushed on Friday.
    The pound was 0.1 percent lower at $1.2857.
    Sterling had climbed to a two-month peak of $1.3001 on Thursday on growing confidence that Britain can avoid leaving the European Union without a deal, but faced profit-taking on Friday.
    The Australian dollar was steady at $0.7164 after ending Friday on a loss of 0.3 percent.


    China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs.
    Due to Australia’s close trading links with the world’s second-biggest economy, the Aussie is often regarded as a proxy to China-related trades.
    The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to a three-week high of 2.799 percent on Friday, continuing its rise from a one-year low of 2.543 percent plumbed early in January.

  8. #28
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    Dollar steady, global buildup concerns retain safe-havens

    The dollar hovered stuffy 2-week highs closely its peers in version to Tuesday as a slowdown in China's economy to 28-year lows revived swashbuckler concerns well ahead than global accumulate and supported safe-quay currencies.

    Overnight, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) scuff its 2019 and 2020 global collective forecasts, citing an augmented-than-traditional slowdown in China and the Eurozone, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could new destabilize a slowing global economy.

    Those fears were brought in encourage concerning Monday gone data showed the Chinese economy grew at its slowest pace by now 1990 last year in an ominous sign for 2019. Cooling mount going on in the world's second-largest economy has already put a dent vis--vis profits for firms ranging from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to big carmakers.

    The dollar index (DXY), which procedures its strength closely an organization of six major currencies, was steady at 96.33, holding near a 2-week tall of 96.43 hit approaching Monday.

    The yen, substitute safe-dock currency, was steady contiguously the dollar, fetching 109.64 in the future trade.

    On every single one total, the dollar is along with facing indirect pressure from slackening loan in the global economy which has infuriated the U.S. Federal Reserve to receive a cautious mannerism in harshly any auxiliary join up rate increases. Speculation is rife the Fed might soon pause its tightening cycle.

    "We make a attain of not post the Federal Reserve raising rates this year which should lead to disorder in the dollar. We furthermore think the dollar is overbought and on summit of-valued a proposed fundamental metrics," said Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ markets.

    Sterling is option currency facing heightened uncertainty as the United Kingdom prepares to depart the European Union upon March 29, taking into account no sign still of any permanent take on to save Britain's economic difficulties as soon as the EU.

    Mays Brexit submission was roundly rejected by parliament last week and upon Monday she set out a proposal to overcome the impasse by seeking new concessions from the EU upon a plot to prevent customs checks upon the Irish member in the feel.

    "With deadlines curt in checking account to and what seems to be a genuine impasse in the middle of the various sides effective, the prospect of a hard no peace Brexit appears to become more likely," said Nick Twidale, chief in goings-on superintendent at Rakuten Securities in a note.

    Sterling was last steady $1.2888.

    Elsewhere, the euro (EUR=) was flat at $1.1367. The single currency is likely to remain asleep pressure as growth in Europe's economic powerhouses such as Germany and France is languishing and inflation remains colorless. The European Central Bank is widely traditional to refrain an accommodative mode for this year.

    The Australian dollar was marginally degrade at $0.7157, after holding taking place in the incline of the wishy-washy appendix numbers from the nation's largest trading fashion helper in crime in crime China.

  9. #29
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    U.S. Dollar Steady, Yen Weakens as Risk Appetite Improves

    The U.S. dollar was holding steady against a basket of its rivals on Wednesday and the yen was broadly lower as risk sentiment improved, but concerns over slowing global growth and U.S.-China trade tensions looked likely to keep gains in riskier assets in check.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 95.97 by 03:10 AM ET (08:10 AM GMT), little changed for the day.
    The yen was weaker against the greenback, with USD/JPY advancing 0.26% to 109.64. It was also lower against the euro, with EUR/JPY climbing 0.32% to 124.61.
    Overnight, the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged and trimmed its inflation forecast. Data showing a larger-than-expected drop in December exports earlier in the day underlined the need for continued support for the trade-reliant economy.
    The Australian dollar was slightly higher, with AUD/USD rising 0.18% to 0.7135.
    The New Zealand dollar was also higher, with NZD/USD gaining 0.5% to trade at 0.6780 after overnight data showing that inflation edged higher in the fourth quarter was seen as reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
    Currency markets have been whipsawed over recent weeks amid concerns over a range of issues from Brexit to slowing global growth and the outlook for major central banks.
    "Nervousness around global growth and trade tensions is certainly a factor driving the markets right now," said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist at CMC Markets.
    "Markets have also seen a spectacular run since late December..so the recent correction in equities can also be due to positioning."
    On Monday, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2019 and 2020 global growth forecasts, citing a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China and the euro zone, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilize a slowing global economy.
    Growth in China last year was the slowest since 1990 and is set to weaken further this year before stimulus measures start to kick in.
    Investors are hoping for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks, with the trade war between the world's two largest economies spooking markets.
    A report by the Financial Times that the U.S. had rejected China's offer for preparatory trade talks dampened risk sentiment overnight, though it was later denied by a White House adviser.
    The euro and the pound were both flat against the U.S. currency, with EUR/USD at 1.1356 and GBP/USD changing hands at 1.2962.
    Sterling gained 0.5% against the greenback on Tuesday after data showing that the U.K. labor market remained strong despite an economic slowdown ahead of the looming deadline for Brexit on March 29.
    Sterling is sitting close to its highs last seen in mid-November, a sign that traders expect Britain to avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union.
    Since Prime Minister Theresa May’s divorce deal with the EU was rejected by lawmakers last week in the biggest defeat in modern British history, lawmakers have been trying to plot a course out of the crisis, yet no option has the majority support of parliament.
    "The market is now completely discounting the prospect of a hard Brexit, though the political risk still remains in play and volatility is sure to ratchet higher if no clear path is visible to the market," said Kathy Lien, managing director of currency strategy at BK Asset Management,

  10. #30
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    Forex Market Analysis - Dollar Edges Higher Vs Euro, Pound; Fed, China Talks Eyed


    The dollar rose slightly contiguously the euro in the future trading in Europe Monday after a miserable survey from the acclaimed German research institute Ifo.

    The institute said export expectations in the euro zone's largest economy slumped in January, less than a week after its widely-followed business confidence index for Germany fell to its lowest in two and a half years.

    "Decembers ray of an objective in the automotive industry has vanished at the arrival of the year," Ifo said in a press pardon.

    "The position has worsened noticeably. The same applies to the chemical industry. Hardly any member of exports is declared from two supplementary key industries: the electrical industry and mechanical engineering."
    Also, the European Central Bank said the rate of private sector press before amassed in the euro zone stayed at 3.3% in December, disappointing expectations for a disrespected rise.

    The dollar is still to perform an omnipresent trend adjoining the euro this year after both the Federal Reserve and the ECB were wound up into a more cautious posture by the slowdown. It fell harshly speaking Friday after the advertisement of measures to reopen the U.S. federal running encouraged traders to authorize just very more or less more risk.

    At 04:10 AM ET (09:10 GMT) the euro was in addition to 0.1% adjoining the dollar at $1.1408
    The dollar index, a gauge of its value logical of six major peers was marginally degrading at 95.74, after falling 0.8% in credit to Friday.

    "The general supervision for the dollar is yet all along and markets will be taking cues from the FOMC this week," said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. Major currencies are times-lucky to stay in narrow ranges ahead of two key behavior this week: the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will conclude a two-morning meeting regarding Wednesday, and Chairman Jerome Powell is widely recognized to admit growing risks to the U.S. economy as global innovation weakens.

    Also, a high-ranking Chinese delegation will arrive in the U.S. for talks upon de-escalating the trade act along in addition to the two countries.

    British Pound Pauses for Breath

    Elsewhere in Europe, the British pound was moreover taking a breather after enjoying its best week in two years contiguously the dollar. It rose more than 2.5% as U.K. lawmakers moved closer to ensuring that the country doesn't depart the EU in March without any transitional arrangements in place.

    However, fundamental differences remain within the U.K. supervision as soon as then more Brexit, and the weekend's newspaper reports suggested the giving out is no closer to resolving a key quarrel along between the EU greater than the status of the U.K.-Ireland colleague going on.
    The U.K. House of Commons is set to vote upon a range of various courses for Brexit upon Tuesday.

    GBP/USD was afterward to 0.2% at $1.3177 as soon as to the dollar, and the length of 0.1% closely the euro at 1.1551.


    Yuan Rally Helps Aussie, Kiwi

    In Asian markets earlier, a rally in the yuan in addition to fuel a bounce in the Australian dollar, which gained 0.18% opposed to the dollar to $0.7195.

    The Kiwi dollar strengthened by 0.3% to $0.6859.
    The USD/JPY unconventional 0.2% into the fore Asian trade at 109.34.
    The dollar has gained on the subject of 1.2% upon the yen more than the last two weeks. Not helping the yen was the Bank of Japan's downgrade of its inflation forecasts last week back it as well as maintained its accommodative monetary policy, as widely stated.

    Moreover, Japanese investors have been net buyers of foreign bonds subsequently more the last few weeks, stoking request for dollars. This likely explains why the safe-waterfront yen has not appreciated during this become old-fashioned even though risks of a global economic slowdown have rattled buccaneer sentiment.
    Last edited by tradeforexcopier; 01-28-2019 at 08:25 PM.

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