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Thread: Forex

  1. #51
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    Trade, politics and changing rates views send Canadian dollar sliding

    The Canadian dollar slumped to nearly six-week lows on Tuesday, hit by a combination of trade troubles, resignations from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's cabinet and expectations the central bank could be on the cusp of changing its policy direction.

    Global forex markets were overshadowed by the continued decline in volatility, lending a boost to higher-yielding currencies such as the U.S. dollar and emerging markets.

    Focus has turned to meetings at the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, with both institutions facing the need to address stuttering economic growth and a slowdown in world trade.


    The Canadian currency fell 0.3 percent to C$1.3350, extending Monday's losses on expectations that the central bank was approaching a policy turning-point.


    The BoC is expected to hold rates this week at 1.75 percent but many reckon it is edging towards a cut later in 2019. A month ago it was seen raising rates twice in 2019.


    Charles St Arnaud, senior investment strategist at Lombard Odier, said the impact of rate rises on consumer spending had been underestimated. Question marks over oil exports and the trade slowdown were also concerns.


    "The Bank of Canada are probably at the place where they are starting to feel concerned...I can see the Canadian dollar weakening a bit more as I think underperformance of the Canadian economy is not at an end," St Arnaud said.


    Latest data showed Canadian growth slowed sharply to 0.4 percent on an annualised basis in the fourth quarter of 2018, versus the 1.2 percent forecast. There were other concerns too, not least two cabinet minister resignations over the government's handling of a corruption scandal. That is roiling Trudeau's tenure months before an October election. Ties with China are also under strain over trade and technology issues. Elsewhere, the euro held near one-week lows versus the dollar at $1.1318 on expectations the ECB's Thursday meeting would hint at delaying hiking rates until next year and soon re-launch long-term bank loans to tackle economic slowdown.


    "The ECB's new projections on Thursday might paint a more subdued picture than before," Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke said, adding the euro appeared to be "aiming for the $1.13 mark".


    The U.S. dollar stood close to a two-week high against key peers at 96.726 , supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields. It had rallied on Monday to 96.816, its strongest since Feb. 19.


    Investors are seeking out higher-yielding currencies as price volatility in the world's most-traded currencies has plummeted following a dovish shift by major central banks. Implied one-month vol on the euro is close to the lowest since 2014 while Deutsche Bank's Currency Volatility Index is near record lows of 6.66 hit in January, 2018.

  2. #52
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    Pound slips as Brexit jitters return; German data dump eyed

    Forex today saw a major selling in the Pound at the start of the new week in Monday’s Asian training, as Brexit jitters returned to the markets amid increased odds of the UK PM May’s Brexit deal rejection by the UK lawmakers ahead of Tuesday’s meaningful vote. The Cable broke below the 1.3000 level and reached three-week lows near 1.2970 region. The EUR/USD pair also traded on the back foot, tracking the losses in the sterling while dwindling Eurozone growth concerns also dragged the common currency lower.
    Meanwhile, the Yen traded a shade firmer amid softer risk tones, keeping USD/JPY near 111 handle. The Antipodeans, on the other hand, returned to the red zone amid China deflation scare and broad USD comeback while the downside remained cushioned amid higher oil prices and gold-price recovery.
    Mixed trading was witnessed on the Asian equities, as the Chinese stocks attempted a tepid bounce after Friday’s heavy sell-off, in response to the disappointing Chinese trade report.

  3. #53
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    Forex trading – what are the best currencies to trade?


    In the world of currency trading, an essential fact is frequently overlooked, which is that foreign exchange rates are reference numbers, not expressions of immutable values. Put more simply, one currency is priced against one or more other currencies, and those prices change all the time.

    Because of this, currency trading is what is known as a zero-sum game, in which a rise for one currency must mean a fall for another. Yet even seasoned observers of the foreign exchanges – traders, commentators, even economists – talk in terms of “dollar strength”, “euro weakness”, or the other way around.
    There areoccasions when traders should explore the reasons why, for example, sterling is falling against the yen, but they ought never to forget that, in such a case, sterling “weakness” is another way of talking about yen “strength”.


    The middle currency

    Following on from this, it is impossible in almost all cases for all currencies to rise or fall at the same time. There is one exception to this, and we’ll examine it in a moment.

    A cross-rate is a direct quote of the value of one denomination against another. By contrast, the world’s lesser currencies, such as those of many developing countries, do not have cross rates. They are quoted in US dollars only.

    So, currency pairs are created by cross-rates, giving rise to the question of which pair is right for the novice currency trader. Which is the best currency pair to trade?
    There is no “correct” answer to the question of the best forex pair to trade, and the decision as to which pair to trade will depend largely on the temperament of the trader in question.
    It began the period at €0.8167 and is currently about €0.8810, a movement of just over six euro-cents. During the year it saw a low of €0.8033 on 26 March 2018 and a high of €0.8915 on 12 November, a trading range of nearly nine euro-cents, or about 11% of the rate at which the period began.


    An “exorbitant privilege”

    Whether you find that range somewhat daunting or rather dull is, again, a matter of temperament. But there are matters of fact that can inform the trader’s thinking on this particular currency pair.

    Another is that the sheer size of the US and euro-zone economies steadies the exchange rate and makes less likely that they will experience big swings against each other.
    A third is that this economic heft means both currencies are likely to enjoy a bedrock of demand simply because consumers round the world will want to buy the goods and services priced in these currencies.
    And a fourth is that the dollar enjoys an advantage over the euro in that it is the world’s premier reserve currency, almost an auxillary global denomination. This greatly bolsters demand which, in turn, leads to what former French President Giscard d’Estaing once called the “exorbitant privilege” of America being able to run huge trade deficits.


    Similarities - and differences

    Someone seeking a rather less predictable forex pair to trade may trade a more obscure currency pair, such as sterling and the Turkish Lira. During the last 12 months, the rate has oscillated from 5.51 lira on 20 March last year, a 12-monthly low, to a high of 8.87 on 13 August, a trough to peak range of more than 60%.
    To mention just three differences, there are 65 million people living in the UK against 81.3 million in Turkey, Britain is ranked 39thin the world for economic output per head, while Turkey stands at 77th, and Britain’s is one of the most stable democracies in the world while Turkey’s leaders are accused of authoritarianism and the country suffered a coup attempt in 2016.


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