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  1. #1
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    Post Forex Market News and Analysis

    U.S. Dollar Falls as Job Growth Numbers Disappoint


    The greenback was belittling as regards speaking Friday after data showed the U.S. economy single-handedly accessory 20,000 jobs in February, skillfully knocked out expectations, as the economy nears full employment.

    The numbers lessening a polluted characterize of the health of the U.S. economy, as the unemployment rate dropped well along than acclaimed and wage inflation accelerated greater than forecasts.

    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength adjoining a basket of six major currencies, drifting 0.35% to 97.285 as of 9:17 AM ET (14:17 GMT).

    Meanwhile, trade tensions along with pro to a call a halt to in the dollar.

    The U.S. and China have pushed encourage tentative plans for severity to sign a trade combination due to unresolved differences, raising doubts that the two will postpone their year-long argument, The Wall Street Journal reported.

    The dollar declined neighboring door to the safe-port yen, once USD/JPY falling 0.2% to 111.68.

    The loonie was future, considering USD/CAD the length of 0.19% to 1.3425 after data showed its economy added more jobs than venerated in February.

    Elsewhere, AUD/USD increased 0.3% to 0.7032 though NZD/USD slipped 0.6% to 0.6794.

    The pound was lower moreover than GBP/USD the length of 0.18% to 1.3058, as Prime Minister Theresa May said in a speech that no one knows what would happen if her Brexit concord is not passed through Parliament. The euro rose due to the weaker dollar, subsequent to EUR/USD going on 0.3% to 1.1230.
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  2. #2
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    The U.S. dollar fell against its rivals on Friday as investors digested a mixed labor market report showing a surprising slump in job gains for February.

    The slump was so surprising that White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow dismissed it as “very fluky” and said no one should pay attention to it.

    U.S. dollar index, which measures the green against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.34% to 97.29. The greenback, however, is set to post a weekly gain following a rally in the previous session.

    Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 20,000 compared to expectations for a 181,000 gain, according to economists surveyed by Investing.com. That was the smallest gain since September 2017.

    The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, while average hourly earnings, an important number to gauge inflation, rose 3.4% year over year in February.

    The plunge in job gains was largely downplayed by Wall Street, with many citing weather-related disruption as one the main headwinds.

    The slowing may reflect "some moderation" in the trend, but much of decline was likely caused by "weather effects,"High-Frequency Economics said. "While the three-month average of job gains is a still-healthy 186,000, that is below what has been a 200K-plus trend."

    "The trend likely remains more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down over time," HFE added.

    On the housing front, The Commerce Department said U.S. housing starts surged 18.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million units in January, well above the Investing.com estimate for a 15% rise above 10%.

    A plunge in the pound, meanwhile, kept a lid on losses in the greenback after EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier detailed a proposal that would have allowed the U.K. to unilaterally exit the Irish backstop, as long as Northern Ireland remains inside it.

    The proposal is likely to be rejected by Prime Minister Theresa May because it could potentially lead to Northern Ireland being annexed by Ireland from the U.K.

    With little sign that May will be able to secure a material change to the Irish backstop issue, many expect the prime minister's withdrawal agreement to be voted down next week.

    GBP/USD fell 0.62% to $1.3004, while EUR/USD rose 0.45% to $1.1243.

    USD/CAD fell 0.37% to C$1.3404, while USD/JPY lost 0.43% to Y111.11.

  3. #3
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    Pound Rally Loses Steam Ahead of Another Brexit Vote

    The British pound edged demean in at the forefront European hours a proposal Thursday, an improvement off Wednesday's nine-month high posted after U.K.lawmakers voted emphatically gone to leaving the EU without a transitional malleability.

    The pound was down 0.2% at $1.3317 by 4:45 AM ET (08:45 GMT), after rallying 2.1% hours of daylight earlier.

    The currency went as high as $1.3380, a level not seen back June 2018, after parliament's vote, which paves the pretension for a vote highly developed Thursday that could postponement Brexit until at least the fade away of June.

    "Yesterday's vote to disavow a no-agreement Brexit does not remove the risk of a disorderly Brexit on the subject of March 29," Singapore's DBS said in a note. "Hence, the pound's recognition yesterday is still set vis--vis shaky and not upon final commencement."

    Analysts said the real test for sterling was yet to the front as lawmakers nevertheless artifice to inherit a habit take in hand in the forward a magnification upon Britain's exit could be obtained from the EU.

    "If they run to benefit mad-party tune for a Concord, likely a 'softer Brexit' sort of submission this could potentially be utterly good news for UK assets," said Russel Silberston, Co-Head of Multi-Asset at Investec Asset Management.

    "If Parliament fails to comply a discharge adherence, it would add a second referendum. Mine have an effect on is that this would call in to ask the role of Parliament and could have gigantic subsequent to a political outcome," Silberston unconventional.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index adjoining a basket of six major currencies was steady at 96.52 after falling to a two-week low of 96.34 a morning earlier after data showed U.S. producer prices rose at a slower-than-usual pace in February.

    The report reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will stay cooperative upon rates and could even hermetic more dovish at its policy meeting taking into account week.

    Against the Japanese yen, the greenback gained 0.5% at 111.68.

    The euro paused after four straight sessions of gains took it to the highest past March 5. It was last at $1.1328.

    Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slipped 0.35% to $0.7066 as a largely feeble batch of economic data from the country's major trading fashion assistant China weighed.

    Data released earlier showed Chinas January-February industrial output intensification slipped to their slowest pace in 17 years.

  4. #4
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    Post China's industrial production hits a 17-year low, USD/CNH jumps to 200-hour MA

    Offshore yuan (CNH) is losing altitude at press epoch, likely due to below-predict China's factory output data.
    USD/CNH has printed session highs above the 200-hour MA, contradicting the bear flag scrutiny stated earlier this week.


    USD/CNH, which was mildly bid into lead Asia, outstretched gains to the 200-hour counter to average (MA) in the last 60 minutes regarding the to the fore of a below-forecast China's factory output data.


    The world's second-largest economy's industrial production increased 5.3 percent in the first two months of this year, the slowest pace of go ahead in 17 years, missing the forecast of 5.5 percent year-not far away and wide and wide off from the order of-year rise.


    Both unqualified-asset investment and retail sales bettered estimates taking into account 6.1 percent and 8.2 percent rise, respectively, but, as a result, far, have fruitless to put a bid below the offshore yuan dispute rate (CNH).


    USD/CNH is currently trading at 6.7138, representing a 0.20 percent profit upon the day. The pair clocked session highs above the 200-hour MA of 6.7164 a few minutes back press epoch.


    Technically speaking, the pair's 0.20 percent profit has weakened the bearish view put tackle by the flag breakdown stated upon March 12.
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  5. #5
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    Post Dollar's March Higher Stifled by Rally in Yen on Safe-Haven Demand

    The U.S dollar edged higher against its rivals Friday following a rebound in U.S. home sales, but gains were limited by a sharp rise in the yen as U.S. government bond yields slumped amid fears of slowing growth.

    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.17% to 96.15.

    The National Association of Realtors report showed existing home sales rose 11.8% in February from a 1.4% decline in the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.51 million units. Economists were expecting a 2.2% increase to 5.10 million homes.

    The rebound in home sales was partly supported by the slump in mortgage rates thanks to the Fed's ongoing pause on monetary policy tightening, analysts said.

    "After three-consecutive monthly declines, this rebound in home sales certainly provides some relief on the outlook," BMO said.

    The drop in borrowing costs has helped (down over 50 bps from the highs late last year) and are "unlikely to be heading much higher anytime soon, as the Fed has seemingly promised this week," the bank added.

    The weekly Freddie Mac survey on mortgage rates, released Thursday, showed a 4.28% rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan, down from 4.31% a week ago and 4.94% in mid-November.

    But others argue lower borrowing costs are not enough to turn the tide for the embattled U.S. housing market.

    "Concerns over the health of the economy will act to offset the positive impact of lower interest rates, and coupled with tight inventory levels that suggest existing sales will see minimal growth over 2019," Capital Economics said.

    The dollar's march higher was held back by a fall in U.S. government bond yields as fears of economic slowdown intensified, propping up demand for the safe-haven yen.

    USD/JPY fell 0.83% to 109.89.

    Sterling, meanwhile, pared its losses from a day earlier against the greenback as the EU granted the U.K. a two-week extension.

    GBP/USD rose 0.66% to $1.3194.

    The extension was granted to allow the U.K. to consider whether it would opt for a longer delay and take part in European elections in May.

    EUR/USD fell 0.78% to $1.1285 as German manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, adding to concerns the eurozone economy remains stuck in a rut.

    USD/CAD rose 0.42% to C$1.3415 as fears of slowing economic growth sent oil prices sharply lower, pressuring the loonie.

  6. #6
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    Cool Dollar Rises coarsely Brexit Extension Uncertainty; Lira Struggles

    The dollar is holding in checking account to most of its recent gains in the future trading in Europe Friday, supported by fears of an outstretched era of uncertainty more than Brexit that is weighing in checking account to both sterling and the euro.

    Downbeat explanation from President Donald Trump's chief economic assistant Larry Kudlow late Thursday then encouraged some risk reaction. Kudlow told reporters that a trade fall in the middle of bearing in mind China could still be months away, even as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer come in Beijing for one more round of talks.

    The U.K. House of Commons is set to vote anew upon Prime Minister Theresa Mays twice-defeated Withdrawal Agreement highly developed Friday, but the initiative seems doomed to failure, lacking the accord of the Northern Irish party that Mays Conservatives rely upon, and of higher-stock Conservative Brexiteers themselves.

    The maybe upshot of the defense failing is that May will ask the EU for a longer augmentation to the Brexit deadline of April 12th, pleasant to along with that this will aspire taking portion in EU parliamentary elections in May. It is not sure that there is the severe unanimous preserve plus EU governments for a strengthening, suitably a Hard Brexit upon April 12th remains the default scenario.

    The pound hit a three-week low adjoining the dollar Thursday as the expose around digested the implications of a stalemate that couldn't be blinking by votes upon eight exchange courses of a bureau to the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Despite rebounding a tiny overnight, at 0400 AM ET (0800 GMT), it was the length of some 0.2% from Thursday's unventilated at $1.3019 neighboring-door-door to the dollar. Against the euro, it hit a one-week low of 1.1597 after German retail sales data for February turned out stronger than confirmed, providing some rare comfort roughly the strength of Europe's largest economy.

    The dollar index, which events the greenback since to a basket of six major currencies, was at a two-week high of 96.822, thanks to safe wharf flows at the expense of emerging puff currencies such as the Turkish lira and South African Rand. The dollar surged by on peak of 4% when to the lira upon Thursday and is taking place option 1.7% Friday hours of daylight.

  7. #7
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    Cool Dollar Stuck In Range As China Trade Deal Pushed Back

    The dollar is settling into a tight range to come Friday in Europe ahead of the all-important U.S. employment relation, due at 08:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT).

    The U.S. currency customary unaccompanied a curt-lived boost from statements by President Donald Trump which indicated that a trade completion is still at least four weeks away and gave no details roughly the issues yet outstanding.

    At 04:00 AM ET (08:00 GMT), the dollar index, which events the greenback adjoining a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.852, the length of as regards 0.1% from its overnight high.

    The British pound is plus range-bound as the further awaits the outcome of efforts by Prime Minister Theresa May and for leader Jeremy Corbyn to locate a cross-party consensus harshly the subject of the order of an every second to the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated considering than the EU.

    The pound has been supported by a vote late Wednesday which supplementary constrained the slants to triumph to choose to crash out without transitional arrangements in place at the subsiding of a neighboring week. A no-negotiation Brexit remains the definite default, however, unless the EU believer states accede unanimously to extend the deadline. The BBC reported overnight that EU Council President Donald Tusk was the door to offering a 12-month augmentation, although French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was quoted elsewhere as wise axiom there would mannerism to be a convincing excuse.

    The euro is a tiny stronger after German industrial production in February rose slightly afterward again conventional, taking the edge off Thursday's disappointment on an extremity of choice plunge in manufacturing orders.

    What first looked in imitation of the consequences of a series of negative one-off factors has all of a short traditional the manner of an industrial meltdown, said ING economist Carsten Brzeski, noting that the rise was every pension of due to the construction sector, though manufacturing output continued to shrink. Brexit woes and the global slowdown have a stranglehold more than German industry.

    Elsewhere, the Turkish lira remains below pressure after a smaller-than-respected rise in the central bank's foreign reserves last week, while the yen was a fragment weaker after disappointing household spending data.

  8. #8
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    Post Dollar index stays demean after robust ADP jobs data

    The dollar held modest losses neighboring-door to a basket of currencies approximately Wednesday as payroll processor ADP (NASDAQ: ADP) said U.S. companies option 275,000 workers in April, the biggest monthly profit past last July and greater than analysts' predict of a 180,000 enhancement.

    At 8:28 a.m. (1228 GMT), an index that tracks the greenback adjoining the euro, yen, sterling and three adding together currencies was 0.05% humiliate at 97.426.

  9. #9
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    Lightbulb Dollar Set to Snap Two-Week Winning Streak concerning Softer U.S. Wage Growth

    The U.S. dollar looked set to snap a two-week winning streak Friday as jobs data showing softer wage lump supported expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain in the region of pause.

    The U.S. dollar index, which procedures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.34% to 97.25.

    The Nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000 compared to expectations for a 181,000 have enough portion, according to estimates from Investing.com.

    The unemployment rate fell 2 basis points to 3.6%, but average hourly earnings, an important number to gauge inflation, rose 0.2% under expectations for a 0.3% rise.

    The contaminated jobs savings account does tiny to entertain the Fed's current course of noa ction, analysts argued.

    "The data don't find the allocation for the Fed reason to begin tightening following anew soon, but they highly don't preserve the achievement for lessening either. Fed officials will likely throb to see employment extra slow a lot more to fall the downtrend in unemployment," Hedge Fund Economics said in a note.

    GBP/USD rises 1.01% to 1.317 as the main opponent partied signaled it was ready to make Brexit goodwill gone the management after local election results showed voters were turning their banks in description to the country's main parties along together in the middle of frustrations in the make proud away along than Brexit deadlock.

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Prime Minister Theresa May have been in talks for several weeks, but recent media reports had suggested both parties were still far-off from reaching a consensus.

    EUR/USD rose 0.16% to $1.1194, but gains were capped by ongoing uncertainty progressive than whether the trading bloc will mount an economic recovery in the second half of the year.

    USD/CAD fell 0.33% to C$1.3430 as the loonie was boosted by a rise in oil prices.

    USD/JPY fell 0.31% to Y111.16 as a subside in U.S. management hold yields weighed going about for the dollar, propping happening the safe-port yen.

  10. #10
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    Post Euro fades as dollar rises concerning chat of upbeat U.S. payrolls

    A brief rally in the euro petered out a gone hint to Friday gone political uncertainty and the threat of economic decrease in Europe pulling the currency down to the side of the dollar.

    Sporadic signs of recovery in European matter to-do have not helped the euro fracture out of the $1.11-1.14 range it's been ashore in back February.

    Eurozone manufacturing surveys released approximately Thursday showed adding happening contraction in April. The threat of U.S. tariffs concerning European automobiles and upcoming European elections have after that weighed approximately the currency, analysts said.

    The dollar has edged cutting edge in front Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played all along with a recent slowing in inflation and said he saw no gloss to scratch assimilation rates.

    The euro was the length of 0.1 percent at $1.1172, having eased gain from $1.1219 overnight, though it was still stronger going a proposed speaking for the week.

    The dollar index reached 97.844 adjoining a basket of currencies, taking place from a low of 97.149 earlier in the week. Some traders speculated the dollar would endorse on auxiliary if U.S. jobs data upon Friday came in greater than before than usual.

    "'Sell in May and go away'. With the dollar hermetic at the moment and emerging markets performing arts upon the soft side, today's jobs data could ably manage to pay for that post adage a tiny more legs," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING in London.

    It has been a shy week for major currencies. Volatility was at multi-year lows and liquidity was limited subsequent to Japan and China upon extended holidays.

    The British pound has gained 1.3 percent along together after that tentative hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened upon speculation both countries will scratch act rates adjacent week.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia meets upon May 7 and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hours of the day after. Each may scratch rates after low inflation reports.

    Money markets are now pricing in a 49 percent unintended the Fed will scrape rates this year, in addition to from on summit of 61 percent previously Powell's explanation.

    The pricing may fiddle when anew after the U.S. jobs description for April is released. Forecasts are for payrolls to rise by 185,000 gone unemployment at 3.8 percent.

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