Daily Technical Analysis

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Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2527.
GBP/USD - Charts Suggest the 2019 Low Is Vulnerable.
D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south.
Broke D1 Ib towards the down side.
Broke the Quarter Support and Month Support.
Series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.24759 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24252. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.25822, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.26378.

EUR JPY

EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.779.
EUR/JPY: Scope for Retesting 120.82.
D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south.
Broke D1 Ib towards the down side.
It's in range but projects towards the down side.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.596 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.414. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.943, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.108.

Major Economic Events of the Day

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and AUD/USD and GBP/NZD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1208.
EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1190/1.1230 range.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11943 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11810. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12198, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12320.

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6926.
AUD/USD - Edges Lower After Weak Consumer Confidence
Bears Seem Confident Ahead Of Fed

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69059 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68858. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69604, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69948.

GBP NZD

GBP traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.8856.
Overnight NZD was struck by a massive selling order. It was almost 34 pips in Asian session.
UK Manufacturing Production today
We can see that the expected 2.1 is way lot better than previous –3.9
if we have a positive tone from GBP then the Technical and fundamental bounce from the lows will be supported.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.88115 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.87673. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.88989, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.89421.

Major Economic Events of the Day

CAD: BOC Tone On Wed Likely A Bit More Optimistic Than Markets Assuming – CIBC
“While not a stunner for markets, the tone will tend to be a bit more optimistic than what markets are now assuming.”

The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell's prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill.

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Technical Overview of USD/CAD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3069.
Trades near the yearly-low (1.3037) even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and recent price action keeps the downside targets on the radar as the exchange rate fails to break out of the monthly opening range.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30436 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30179. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31169.

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.487.
USD/JPY to find support from yields may face resistance above 109.00.
Its approaching resistance level and fundamentally the weakness of USD may drive the pair lower.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.053 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.618. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.726, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.964.

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7022.

Maintain a bullish data; Staying Long is more favorable as compared to short. Daily chart has a break above close above 10 EMA. Targets may be 0.73, Daily High and Weekly High has also been breached over night. Looking for a break meaningfully above resistance earlier this week at 0.7036 and remain long AUDUSD targeting 0.7300.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69868 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69515. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70409, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70597.

USD JPY

USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 107.885.

3 - Bearish Days for the Dollar, Expectations are the Rate cut by end of July.
Bearish sentiment leads the currency against the basket of CHF and JPY.
Selling rallies may be a positive approach in trading the safe-heaven. The basket trades below Quarterly and Yearly Pivots.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 107.589 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.292. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.394, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.902.

Major Events of the Day

NZD: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2)
Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

CNY: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic event would have an impact on the Forex market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7008.

Higher After Post-Aus Jobs Short-Covering
AUD/NZD rallied from a 4-month low at 1.0404 to 1.0435.
AUD/USD rally was short-covering as it doesn't change RBA expectations.
Resistance at 0.7045 while 10-day MA at 0.6991 is support.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69948 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69811. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70233, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70381.

EUR JPY

EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.15.

JPY breaking its lows on daily candle as well as weekly candle.
The losers against the JPY are USD and EUR for now.
Pretty decent Harmonic patterns found on H4 charts that are in confluence with the Fundamental expects.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.038 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.926. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.592.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1121.

Staying Tactically Bearish For 1.1050; A 50bp Fed Cut Would Be A Game Changer.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12150 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11543. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14118, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14725.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2343.

To New 2019 Low As EU Affirms No Reopening Of Brexit Deal.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.25558 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24902. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27682, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28338.

COT Report for Different Currencies this week

COT Report for Swisse
Swissie Net Commercials volume is above the 0 mark and in a positive side showing Net Long positions in strength.
Its a wise decision to remain Long on swissie.

COT Report for Canadian Dollar
Here In Canadian Dollar Net Commercials we see that from the 11th June- 18th June.
The Canadian Dollar has weighted towards a Net Commercial Short Position.
Means that Shorting Canadian Will be a wise decision, Alternatively Going Long on the retracements can also be entertained.

COT Report for US Dollar
US Dollar Net Commercial Positions Weighs towards the Net Short side.
It can be clearly seen that from the Year start , the commercials have been interested in shorting the US Dollar.

COT Report for GBP
After facing turbulance from 19 March to almost a month ,GBP Net commercials weigh towards the Long Net Positions.
GBP may show some reaction to the COT Report this week.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1107.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) today shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1121 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1130 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1135.

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6799.

AUD/USD down 0.5% in sympathy with a weakening Yuan as China fights back.
USD/CNY blasts through pivotal 7.00 as US-China trade tensions escalate.
Leads to risk aversion in Asia as risk/EM assets sold across board.
Havens JPY, XAU +0.5%, US-10 year yield hits 1.7890, lowest since Nov 9, 2016.
Risk barometer AUD/JPY -1% to a new 2019 low; RBA to sound more dovish Tues?

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6776 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6768. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6794.

NZD USD

NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6540

A number of downward slopping trend lines indicate weakness of NZD/USD.
10-week old support-line grabs bears’ attention.
In addition to a two-day long descending trend-line, the NZD/USD pair’s sustained trading below a resistance-line stretched since late-July also portrays its weakness as the quote seesaws near 0.6510 during early Monday.

The Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, today a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6521 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6513. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6533, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6537.

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6756.

• AUD/USD remains upbeat as the RBA renounce from the policy change.
• The central bank stepped back from suggesting further rate cuts.
• Trade/political news will be followed for fresh impulse.

According to the report of The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), there will be no change in the monetary policy, offers a 1.0% interest rate. The central bank avoid from supporting further rate cuts while leaving the door open based on future growth conditions. Earlier during the day, upbeat trade balance data for June also pleased Aussie buyers.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.678 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.677. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6797 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6803.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2143.

• GBP/USD stays on defensive 100 hour exponential moving average.
• 4-day old support-line seems immediate rest ahead of 1.2080.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2101 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2189, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2233.

USD JPY

USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 105.9500.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.
Previous reading for Gross Domestic Product was 0.6%.
Expected GDP is 0.1%.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 106.43 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.36.

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Technical Overview of NZD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CNY Currency Pair

NZD USD

NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6446.

• Lower than expected USD/CNY fix and comments from RBNZ calming markets.
• RBNZ asst Governor Hawkes by is confident inflation will rise after 50 BP cut.
• Hawkes by said unconventional tools an option only if inflation tanks.
• NZD/USD resistance at former support at 0.6480/90 where sellers are tipped.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative. According To consensus GDP rate is expected to be lower than previous rate.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6455 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6452. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6461 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6463.

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1199.
Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and expects a dip back towards 1.10 in EUR/USD on 1-3M on yet another Fed disappointment in September.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1211 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1209. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1214, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1216.

USD CNY

USD traded lower against CNY and closed at 7.0602.

USD/CNY fix at 7.0039, which was below market estimates.

The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services. The result is a comprehensive summary of the results extracted from the urban consumer price index and rural consumer price index. The purchase power of the CNY is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A substantial consumer price index increase would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, potentially prompting The People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 7.0359 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 7.0116. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 7.0749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 7.0896.

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6802.

• RBA quarterly SOMP just released is in line with dovish market assumptions
• RBA notes the downside risks posed by US-China trade war escalation
• AUD/USD off early high (0.6822), but still holding above 0.6800

The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6713 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6666. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6818.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2133.

The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2113 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2082. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2182, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2221.

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3227.

The employment Change released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3279 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3251. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.334, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3373.