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  1. #261
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    EUR/USD swings between 1.1400 as ECB-Fed fight intensifies after US inflation


    EUR/USD is balanced around the highest level since mid-November early Thursday morning in Europe. Major currency pairs made the biggest jump in 5 weeks the previous day as the US dollar fell to multi-day lows as inflation data matched expectations, causing market challenges causing the US dollar to drop to multi-day lows. There will be less ammo when they meet on Jan. 25. That suggests, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit its highest level since 1982 while still hitting a forecast of 7.0% year-over-year, down from 6.8% in previous readings. The monthly figures stood at 0.5% vs 0.4% expected but fell below 0.8% previously.


    However, Fed policymakers have reiterated their bullish bias following the release of inflation data, thus stressing EUR/USD bulls in recent times. . The Chairman of the Federal Reserve St. Louis James Bullard was the first to declare, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “four rate hikes in 2022 appear to be on the cards and, in the face of high inflation, and one in March seems very likely.


    Then a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors and the new FOMC vice president, Lael Brainard, also mentioned: signaled a rate hike as early as March. On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) decision maker François Villeroy de Galhau states: “We are very close to the peak of inflation. It should be noted that industrial production in the euro area increased 2.3% month-on-month in November from previously revised 0.5% and 1.3% forecasts.


    With the recent escalation of pressure on Fed policymakers, bond yields consolidate previous losses, raising questions about equity futures and assets more risky. However, a large number of policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed will speak on Thursday, thus providing an active day for EUR/USD traders. In addition to monetary policy signals, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December and weekly jobless claims, along with the European Economic Bulletin, will also lead the pair’s moves Short-term.


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  2. #262
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    XAU/USD bulls point to further US dollar weakness


    Potential catalysts for the day ahead will come during the US session with New York Fed President John Williams and retail sales in the United States. The Fed will then enter a shutdown until its next interest rate decision later this month. This makes the US data the proof.


    TD Securities analysts explain that retail sales are likely to decline in December, even as higher prices have boosted nominal values. “Spending may be dampened by the disappearance of fiscal stimulus, an earlier-than-normal recovery of holiday shopping and Omicron. We are looking for a notable drop in total revenue of 1.4% month-on-month (consensus: 0.1%) and a larger decrease of 2.0% for the control group (consensus level: 0.1%) consensus: unchanged). Real and nominal spending remained strong QoQ and strong YoY dollars. XAU/USD is trading around $1,820 and down around 0.1% as the DXY index attempts to correct its late-December lows until the current financial year’s sell-off.


    US$ as measured by the DXY Index, sold off from 96.90 to a recent low of 94.66. For weeks, XAU/USD is up more than 4%. However, in what could be a more technical move, the yellow metal failed to capitalize on falling US yields and the greenback on Thursday. DXY fell 0.4% and the US 10-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to 1.718%. “The persistently weak US dollar failed to lift gold prices as investors expressed concerns about the Fed’s hawkish move to contain inflation,” said analysts at ANZ Bank.


    However, that won’t explain why the greenback and yields continue to fall. Instead, the bond market appears to be reassessing the pace of the Fed’s balance sheet liquidation following less hawkish rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Fed Chairman Philly Patrick Harker.


    On Thursday, Harker said he sees the Fed beginning to shrink its balance sheet “in late 2022 or early 2023” after the central bank raised its target interest rate enough, to about 1% from level close to zero. The comments echo those of Powell, who said the Fed could begin shrinking its balance sheet later this year during a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. “At some point, maybe later this year, we’re going to start to see the balance sheet collapse, and that’s just the path to policy normalization,” he said, adding that the US economy “no longer needs or wants” the Fed. policy is very appropriate.


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  3. #263
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    GBP/USD: UK policy is in the driver’s seat, BoE also center of attention

    GBP/USD has been fairly steady on the day so far in a quiet start to the week following a significant correction on Friday with demand for the US Dollar, which has been heavily bid at the start of the year. So far, the cable is trading near 1.3680 in a tight range between 1.3661 and 1.3676. £ could find comfort this week on the UK Gross Domestic Product which was released on Friday and beat expectations. The data suggest that Omicron’s impact on growth is likely to be modest in the end.

    In information of late, Prime Minister Boris Johnson may also scrap his plan-B Covid limit in England, the Telegraph on Friday. This ought to underpin the pound, ultimately, because of potentialities of competitive hawkish moves from the Bank of England. Data may be eyed for heading again to round pre-pandemic ranges and inflation may be monitored.

    However, UK political occasions withinside the UK ought to hamstring the pound as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going through calls – additionally from withinside the Conservative birthday birthday celebration – to resign. The PM admitted he participated at a meeting in Downing Street in May 2020, whilst strict containment guidelines had been in place (Partygate). Labour has argued that the PM may also scrap the covid limit to distract from Partygate.

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