The Monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8% in the year to February, compared with the Westpac forecast of 7.4% year-on-year and the market forecast of 7.2% year-on-year. This represents a significant downside risk to our March forecast CPI forecast of 1.5% per quarter.
Specifically, the index rose only 0.2% in February versus our forecast of 0.8%; we believe the market median would have been about 0.6% given the 7.2% annual forecast. Compared with the average monthly increase of 0.9%mth in the last three months of 2022, the first two prints of 2023 represent a significant slowdown in inflation: -0.4% in January and 0.2% in February.
The monthly CPI indicator can fluctuate widely from month to month, as it is not a true monthly index, but rather the publication of data from the quarterly CPI, as they become available. This volatility is due to the timing of the various price surveys. This could be the reason why ABS reports the annual growth rate and not the monthly change.
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Thread: Daily Technical Analysis
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03-29-2023, 01:40 PM #491
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator
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Yesterday, 01:56 PM #492
German and Spanish Inflation Prints in Focus
The main focus today will be on the German and Spanish flash inflation data, which will provide the first sense of what to expect from the euro area HICP figures tomorrow. Generally, we forecast gradually easing headline inflation, but see core inflation pressures still remaining at elevated levels. Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicators will also be released for March today.
The 60 second overview
Market sentiment: Asian equities are in red, while stock market futures are mixed in Europe and the US. In the absence of any news triggers, markets are tuning in for the Spanish and German inflation prints due this morning.
US banks: The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is facing almost USD 23bn in costs from the failures of Signature and Silicon Valley Banks. Now, according to Bloomberg, the FDIC is contemplating to propose a so-called special assessment to speed up the process of refilling the fund, and the plan entails an outsize contribution by the largest lenders.
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