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  1. #241
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    USD/JPY pair may return to 113.00 amid falling yields

    USD/JPY rebounded to 113.00 during its first open in Tokyo on Thursday, struggling to defend its first of a three-day advance. The yen appears to be receiving signals from the dollar’s rebound and a surge in global market volatility reflecting recent moves. But the Fed’s next move and eagerness to put safety at risk amid mixed fears of the Omicron crisis are keeping the Japanese currency at the top of the safe haven list and raising doubts among bull markets.


    USD/JPY hit an intraday high and fell near its two-month low, during the pre-NFP trade downturn, markets are sluggish and mixed signals from the Fed add to the hesitation.
    The US is considering extending the shelf life of masks after marking the first Omicron case. The OECD is downgrading its global growth projections, with Japan’s GDP expected to rise to 1.8% in 2021 from 2.5% in previous projections.


    While reiterating concerns about inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he still believes inflation will “fall significantly” in the second half of 2022, while speaking out against a Senate committee. In contrast, New York Federal Reserve Governor John C. Williams said the New York Times said Omicron could extend the supply-demand mismatch, leaving some inflationary pressure.


    The 10-year Treasury yield is under pressure near its two-month low at around 1.42% at the time of release, while S&P 500 futures are trading up 0.30% since the Wall Street benchmarks released. But the promise of safety is supported by the latest news about corona virus options in South Africa. Following the first Oh Micron incident in the United States, the Joe Biden administration has put pressure on people to expand the rules for wearing masks on public transportation. “The administration of President Joe Biden will extend the requirement for travelers to wear masks on planes, trains, buses, and airports and train stations by mid-March to address the current risk of Omicron as reported by Reuter. Add to that risk shift and could be the latest economic forecast from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which suggests that global GDP will grow by 5.6% in 2021 (previously 5.7%) and 4.5% in 2022. According to Reuters, it is 3.2% in 2023.


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  2. #242
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    NZD/USD stays directed towards 0.6710 supports after softer China data, US NFP eyed

    NZD/USD remained bearish near the intraday low of 0.6786 since the Chinese Caixin PMI released early on Friday. At the same time, the kiwi pair reflects disappointing market sentiment and also responds to soft data ahead of key data on US non-farm payroll (NFP). China Caixin Services PMI for November fell to 52.1 from below 53.8, and the composite PMI also fell to 51.2 from 51.5 in the same month. At the same time, indicators of private activity differ from the official values ​​published earlier this week.


    Much of the bearish sentiment is adding to the broader strength of the US dollar in hopes of a faster contraction in the Federal Reserve after politicians appeared hawkish in their final speech before the silence began this Saturday. Key proponents of easing faster paybacks, which also fuel fears of inflation, include San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRS) Governors Mary Daley and Thomas Barkin Richmond.


    Fed’s hawkish outlook, as well as a weaker-than-expected result for the week’s early and ongoing US unemployment claims, a dismal job cut for November applicants, also reinforced hopes for a faster austerity policy and favorable returns from the Fed. The Wall Street indicator also posted a consolidated weekly loss the previous day, but it should be noted that S&P 500 futures and Asia Pacific stocks fell earlier on Friday.


    The reason may have to do with the hopes of US politicians to avoid a government shutdown on Saturday. Also positive for kiwi prices may be recent optimism about the search for a cure for a South African strain of coronavirus called Omicron. Meanwhile, Beijing’s remarks about the EUUS’s recent dislike of China and the first phase of trade negotiations and tariffs seem to challenge risk appetite. In a similar vein, caution has been created ahead of the US employment report.


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  3. #243
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    AUD / USD defends 0.7000, prepares for RBA omissions, PBOC RRR falls in stronger yields

    The AUD / USD rose slightly to 0.701015 during the Asian session on Monday, licking the wounds after the sharp daily decline since early May. Optimistic views on the Australian economy, expectations for a rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as Fed linked chatter dragged the Australian pair to new lows in 2021. Preparations recently police officers. Careful optimism in the market can be on the same line. Prior to the RBA meeting, Bloomberg released a poll stating that “The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to be the last meeting of the year.”


    On the other hand, ANZ said: “China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang has promised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) without specifying a date. Possible reconstruction by default.” In addition to RBA and PBOC chatter, optimistic printouts of second-tier data at home also supported the AUD / USD price. However, Australia’s TD stock inflation rate rose more than 0.2% to 0.3% in November, with ANZ job ads rising from 6.2% last month to 7.4%.


    In addition, the hope of finding a cure for a variant of South Africa’s Covid known as Omicron is less dangerous than initially feared, adding to rumors that it has fueled market sentiment and AUD / USD prices increase. After first hitting Europe and the United Kingdom, the virus strains are strengthening their grip to reach major world countries such as the United States and China. However, it should be noted that scientists around the world are optimistic about treatments. Recently, senior US doctor Anthony Fauci has confirmed that Pfizer’s drug against Omicron is effective. Meanwhile, the news that chewing gum can contain the spread of the virus and the UK’s treatment efforts are also hopeful for distributors.


    In addition, Australian Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg’s comment was positive for the AUD / USD rate. According to Reuters, policymakers may revise Australia’s 2022 GDP forecast during a mid-year budget update. It is noteworthy that prices fell sharply on Friday as the US dollar suffered a sudden drop in non-farm payroll (NFP) while trading the unemployment rate collapse. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike were also raised by comments from President St. James Bullard. “We may consider raising interest rates before the cut is complete,” policymakers said. Wall Street’s benchmark closed negative, but Friday’s US Treasury 10-year yield fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 1.35%, the lowest level since late September. In the future, risk catalysts and pre-RBA sentiment could boost AUD / USD prices on a bright calendar.


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  4. #244
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    How might Reserve Bank of Australia decision on Interest rates affect AUD/USD?

    As with the first Tuesday of every month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is ready to announce its latest monetary policy meeting and interest rate decision around 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.10% and unchanged its weekly $40 billion bond purchases. Weaker recent third-quarter inflation data from Australia and a stronger wage price index appear to help policymakers keep the status quo.


    However, due to concerns arising from the South African covid variant, AUD/USD traders should pay close attention to the RBA exchange rate table for clear guidance given the oversold trend of the Australian currency pair near its 2021 lows.


    Key notes:


    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls hope to test the 0.71


    AUD/USD pattern. RBA Reserve Bank of Australia further declines, risk-free preview: market participants await more stringent hints
    AUD/USD reached an intraday high near 0.7055 ahead of a major RBA decision early on Tuesday. The Australian currency pair appears to be cautiously preparing for RBA commentary which may be depressing amid bullish markets. It should be noted, however, that Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt has recently welcomed the introduction of a coronavirus vaccine in Australia, thus implying a more robust RBA statement.


    However, AUD/USD traders will pay little attention to the RBA’s ruling unless the central bank cites significant catalysts or hints for a decline in bond buying in February. Still, optimism about the country’s vaccination program could help the couple maintain their recent gains after monetary policy decisions.


    Technically, AUD/USD is holding from the November 2020 bottom in RSI oversold conditions. However, the correction retreat remains within the 5-week trend downtrend channel. The August 2021 bottom near 0.7105 attracts short-term buyers ahead of the event, while the convergence of 10DMA and the upper line of the specific channel near 0.7125 are tough nuts for the bulls.


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  5. #245
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    AUD/USD holds up to 0.7170 despite new sentiment challenge


    AUD/USD fell to 0.7120 after hitting a one-week high in Wednesday’s early Asian session. A new challenge to the pre-risk sentiment before is bullish, but the Australian technical breakout of a major hurdle gives buyers hope in a quiet session with no significant data/events.


    AUD/USD is rallying to its weekly high after two days of gains. Yields have fallen and US stock futures remain moderate amid mixed concerns. America, Russia and Sino-American Stories are battling a retreat from the horrors of Omicron.
    A bright calendar, market expectations for Friday’s US CPI, indicates risk factors for a new impulse.
    The US warns Russia of sanctions and aids Ukraine with military force if the Kremlin invades Kiev. A senior US State Department official said on Tuesday that the Biden administration was “focused on how to respond to the new German government if Russia invades Ukraine.” A US State Department official said on Tuesday. Reuters.


    The US boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics is a bad sign for China, as Dragon Nation warns Washington of the consequences. In addition, concerns about companies facing a real estate crisis in China, such as Evergrande and Kaisa, are waning market optimism. In contrast, easing concerns over the South African strain of coronavirus, dubbed Omicron, and hopes for further stimulus from China are encouraging AUD/USD buyers. Against this backdrop, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 1.47%, down 2 basis points to 1.47% in two days, and S&P 500 futures struggling to keep up with the monthly benchmark. Continually, the lack of critical data/events keeps the risk catalyst in the driver’s seat. However, the latter risk factor could trigger the consolidation of AUD/USD gains due to the state of the risk indicator for that pair.


    AUD/USD broke through the major barriers north of around 0.7110, which consists of the 10DMA and the upper line of the 5-week-old downtrend channel. However, the MACD signal shows a bearish bias decline and the RSI is rebounding again from its oversold zone, and the pair’s recovery is breaking out of the horizontal zone, including around 0.6990 recorded in November 2020 and December 2021. Thus, AUD/USD bullish is set to wrestle with the 0.7170 resistance that spanned the September lows and last week’s highs.


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