Daily Technical Analysis

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Gold’s Pricing Dynamics Amidst External Influences


Gold’s pricing trajectory has experienced a downturn, reflecting a negative sentiment for two consecutive days, particularly as it lingers beneath the notable $2,000 benchmark. As we transition into the European trading session, numerous factors contribute to this phenomenon.


At the forefront of these influences is the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) strategies. Market analysts largely believe that the Fed will remain unyielding in its hawkish approach, all in a bid to realign inflation to its designated 2% target. Such expectations have invigorated the US Treasury bond yields. Consequently, a rejuvenated demand for the US Dollar (USD) has emerged. The resultant effect of this surging USD demand is a palpable pressure on gold, primarily because gold doesn’t offer yield, distinguishing it from bonds and equities.


Geopolitical developments further accentuate these price dynamics. Israel’s recent tactics, reflecting restraint in its actions within Gaza, have assuaged overarching concerns about a potential exacerbation of tensions in the Middle East. This de-escalation sentiment, in turn, challenges gold’s traditional stature as a ‘safe-haven’ asset, leading to a softened demand for the precious metal. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that the prevailing tension between Israel and Hamas hasn’t entirely dissipated. This lingering volatility, coupled with the prevailing ambiguity surrounding China’s economic revival, infuses some buoyancy into the gold price.


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Gold Price Stable; Awaits US NFP for Direction


The gold market has witnessed a consistent pattern over the past few days, with the price of gold, represented as XAU/USD, maintaining its position in a recognizable range. For the second consecutive day on Friday, there has been an observable inclination of buyers towards the precious metal. However, the enthusiasm behind this trend lacks a firm bullish underpinning. A predominant optimistic sentiment prevailing in the equity markets has been instrumental in keeping the gold’s value below the significant $2,000 benchmark during the initial hours of the European trading session.


Investors currently display a conservative approach, hesitant to commit to substantial stakes. Their caution is primarily driven by the anticipation of the forthcoming US monthly jobs report. This report is highly significant as it is expected to shed light on the Federal Reserve’s future decisions regarding rate hikes. A decisive directional push for the XAU/USD could emerge post this revelation.


Meanwhile, there’s growing speculation in the financial circles that the Federal Reserve is approaching the culmination of its stringent monetary policy. There’s talk of potential rate cuts beginning as soon as June 2024. Such a move could lead to a diminishing appeal of the US Treasury bonds, consequently pressing down their yields. This scenario poses a challenge for the US Dollar (USD), albeit offering an indirect prop to the gold prices, which don’t yield returns.


The global scenario also plays its part. The prevailing unrest in the Middle Eastern regions combined with apprehensions about the slowing pace of the Chinese economy adds a supportive undertone to the XAU/USD. However, investors tread carefully, given the lack of sustained buying momentum, advocating a cautious stance for bullish traders.


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Gold Price Lingers at Monthly Low Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Insights


As the markets navigate through uncertain tides, the price of gold persists at a near-monthly nadir, weighed down by continued selling pressure. As of Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) wrestles with tepid demand, barely holding above its monthly low as it enters the European trading session. The strengthening U.S. Dollar (USD), which is rebounding from its September 20 low—its weakest point reached just the day before—casts a shadow over the traditional stalwart of commodities. Compounding this is the absence of new developments in geopolitical tensions, which traditionally might bolster gold’s appeal as a refuge asset.


Market sentiment remains fragile amidst geopolitical anxieties, particularly due to uncertainties in the Middle East. The lackluster performance of global equity markets mirrors this nervousness, providing a somewhat supportive backdrop for gold prices. However, a notable decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields—prompted by increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the tail end of its rate-hiking cycle—offers a glimmer of hope for gold, an asset that typically does not offer yields. This complex dynamic calls for a strategic approach from investors, particularly those with bearish inclinations towards the precious metal.


Looking forward, the anticipation is palpable among traders who are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve for hints on the future trajectory of interest rates. All eyes are on the upcoming pronouncements from pivotal figures within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including the much-anticipated commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for mid-week. These communications are expected to significantly influence the short-term fluctuations of the USD and, by extension, the strategic positioning for gold.


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Decline in China’s Forex Reserves to $3.1 Trillion Amidst a Stronger US Dollar

China’s foreign exchange reserves have decreased to $3.1012 trillion at the conclusion of October, representing a $13.8 billion reduction from September’s figures, as reported by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on a recent Tuesday. This downtrend marks the third month in a row where a reduction in reserves has been noted. However, the rate of decline has seen a deceleration compared to the figures from September.


The main driving force behind this dip in reserves is attributed to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which has subsequently led to a depreciation in global asset prices. Despite this, analysts and officials have noted that China’s economic resurgence is gathering pace, and the foundational aspects of China’s economic structure remain unchanged, providing a supportive backdrop for the continued stability of the foreign exchange reserves.


The uptick in the U.S. dollar index, which climbed by 0.49 percent in October, coupled with the dollar strengthening by 0.64 percent against the yuan, has been linked to various factors. These include anticipated shifts in monetary policy among key economies, macroeconomic data fluctuations, and geopolitical developments. As a result, the decrease in forex reserves has been the cumulative outcome of adjustments in currency valuations and changes in asset prices.


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The USD/CHF currency pair has managed to recover some of its recent losses and is currently hovering around the psychologically significant level of 0.9000 during the European trading session on Thursday. This rebound in the pair’s value comes as the market experiences a shift in confidence, driven by the cautious stance of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding the possibility of lowering interest rates.


During the US Central Bank statistics conference held on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from providing commentary on the current monetary policy. Investors are now eagerly awaiting Powell’s participation in a panel discussion later in the day, where he may shed light on the “Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy.” His insights and perspectives in this discussion could significantly impact market sentiment.


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USD/JPY Nears Break Above 151.50 Amid Strengthening US Dollar

The U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate has been exhibiting remarkable tenacity, consistently edging upwards for five consecutive days. As of the latest observations during the early trading hours in Europe on a Friday, the pair was quoted just shy of 151.50. This bullish trend has been largely attributed to an unexpected shift in tone from Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, whose comments exuded a more hawkish stance than anticipated. These remarks have had a significant influence, catalyzing an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields and bolstering the U.S. Dollar‘s position against the Japanese Yen.


The currency market’s reaction to Powell’s statements, made during an International Monetary Fund event, was swift. The Fed Chair’s expression of concern regarding the inadequacy of current policies to rein in inflation sent the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbing, with readings around 106.00, and the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds reaching 4.62% at the time of reporting.


Contrasting the posture adopted by other central banks, which have been actively tightening monetary policy, the Bank of Japan remains an outlier, adhering to a dovish outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda of the Bank of Japan has indicated that any transition away from the institution’s long-held ultra-loose monetary policy will be approached with caution, aiming to mitigate the risk of inducing excessive volatility within the bond market.


Yet the pressure on the Japanese Yen persists, as the anticipated policy shift continues to be deferred, partly due to stagnating wage growth. The BoJ deems adequate wage increases essential before it can commit to altering its stance on monetary policy, which has been characterized by its leniency for an extended period.


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The USD/CAD currency pair has shown resilience, maintaining its strong stance above the 1.3800 level as crude oil prices experience a downturn. The pairing saw a rebound from the losses it suffered last Friday, climbing to a value around 1.3810 in the Monday Asian trading session. This upswing for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) follows a session of gains bolstered by an initial rise in crude oil prices.


However, a reversal in this trend emerged as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices retracted, dipping below the $76.50 mark. The pullback in oil prices can be attributed to the renewed anxieties over a potential slump in demand from two of the world’s largest economies, the United States and China. These concerns have cast a pall over market sentiment, affecting the dynamics of the oil market. With China being a significant oil importer, the country’s reported annual drop in inflation in October has sparked fears that global growth could be stifled, subsequently influencing crude oil demand negatively.


On the front of the United States Dollar (USD), the currency did not find support from the unexpected hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Powell expressed concern over the current policy measures not being stringent enough to reduce inflation to the Fed’s ideal rate of 2.0%. As a result, the USD has been caught in a state of uncertainty.


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NZD/USD Downward Trend Continues, Eyes on US Economic Indicators


The New Zealand dollar, commonly referred to as the Kiwi, has seen a continuous decline, intensifying its losses to approach a value of 0.5870 against the US dollar during the Asian market hours on Tuesday. This downturn, which initiated on the 6th of November, is largely being linked to internal economic indicators, especially the Food Price Index (FPI) in New Zealand, which reported a 0.9% month-on-month decrease in October.


Food costs are a significant component in New Zealand’s calculation of inflation, accounting for about 19% of the nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The FPI is particularly critical as it reflects the change in price for a group of food items that are typically purchased by New Zealand families, thereby serving as a pulse check on inflationary pressures within the domestic economy.


The influential financial firm Goldman Sachs has projected that inflation rates in New Zealand, as measured by the CPI, will fall below 3% by the fourth quarter of 2024. This projection also carries the implication that the rate hike cycle, administered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), may have reached its conclusion. Consequently, Goldman Sachs expects that the RBNZ may embark on a rate-cutting journey starting from the same quarter in 2024.


In parallel, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is a measure of the strength of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is experiencing its own set of challenges. Despite efforts to stem further losses, it has been trading around the mark of 105.70. The US dollar is under pressure, partly due to the unpredictable nature of US bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury note yield hovering around 4.63% at the time of reporting.


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As the British Pound to Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) exchange rate hovers around a significant peak, surpassing the 188.00 threshold, market participants are keenly awaiting the upcoming UK inflation data with a sense of cautious optimism. The currency pair has demonstrated a resilient uptrend, garnering buying interest after a slight decline to the 187.65 zone during the Asian trading hours, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains on Wednesday. The current spot rates linger near the 188.15 region, flirting with levels not seen since the latter part of 2015, just before the latest UK consumer price index (CPI) numbers are due for release, prompting investors to reassess their market positions.

Forecasts predict a substantial drop in the annual UK CPI rate, from 6.7% in September to an estimated 4.8% for October. This anticipated decline is juxtaposed against the risks of an impending recession, and should the inflation figures come in lower than expected, it would likely reinforce market speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) is poised to initiate a cycle of interest rate reductions, potentially weakening the Sterling. Nonetheless, the potential downside for the GBP/JPY pair appears to be moderated by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent dovish adjustments to its monetary policy.

The BoJ’s subtle shift in its yield curve control policy, signaled earlier this month, hints at a gradual exit from the long-standing expansive monetary stance. Moreover, a rather unimpressive GDP report indicating a contraction in Japan’s economy for the first time in several quarters, provides the central bank with enough reason to postpone any significant deviations from its current extensive monetary easing strategy.

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GBP/USD Stabilizes Above 1.2400 Amid Mixed Market Signals


The GBP/USD currency pair exhibits a steady stance above the 1.2400 level, navigating through a complex landscape of market signals and economic indicators. This stability comes after the pair recoiled from a near two-month high around the 1.2500 mark, following a setback from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). In the Asian trading session on Thursday, the pair showed limited fluctuation, indicating a cautious approach by traders amidst varied influences.


The US Dollar (USD) dynamics play a pivotal role in this equation. The USD Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar’s strength against a group of major currencies, struggles to build on its modest recovery from early September lows. This struggle is primarily due to anticipations of a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed), especially following a recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This report highlighted a quicker cooling of consumer inflation than expected, bolstering predictions of a potential rate cut by the Fed in the first half of 2024. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields remain subdued, exerting pressure on the dollar.


Meanwhile, a prevailing sentiment of risk-taking in the markets further challenges the dollar, historically seen as a safe-haven asset. This atmosphere indirectly supports the GBP/USD pair, though the gains are limited. This limitation stems from the growing consensus that the Bank of England (BoE) may soon reduce interest rates. This view gained traction with the latest UK consumer inflation data, which showed a significant slowdown. The October figures indicated a flat monthly CPI and a sharp year-on-year decline to 4.6%, marking a two-year low. Additionally, the Core CPI also witnessed a decrease.


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