Daily Technical Analysis

[xtreamforex.com]

The USD/JPY currency pair continues its descent, now slipping below the 150.50 mark, amidst a broader context of market wariness and the anticipation of forthcoming U.S. housing sector data. This downward movement is part of a trend that’s been observed for two consecutive days, with the exchange rate hovering near 150.30 during the European trading session on Friday. Several factors are contributing to this cautious sentiment in the market, not the least of which is the growing skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Recent economic data from the United States has been less than stellar, dampening expectations of further interest rate hikes.


The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) current approach is also playing a role in the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to a gradualist policy approach, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the achievement of the 2% inflation target. This dovish posture by the BoJ provides a backdrop of support for the USD/JPY pair, even as it faces downward pressure.


The labor market in the U.S. has shown signs of strain, with Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 10th climbing unexpectedly to 231,000, overshooting the forecast of 220,000, and signaling the highest level in the past three months. Moreover, the Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 3rd also saw an uptick, reaching a peak not seen since the beginning of 2022, with 1.865 million claims as compared to the 1.833 million from the previous count.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

USD/CAD Stalls Above 1.3700; Focus on FOMC Minutes, Canadian CPI


The USD/CAD currency pair has shown a retreat for the second day running during the Asian trading session on Monday. This downtrend is primarily attributed to a softer US Dollar and a dip in the US Treasury bond yields, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment or reaction to broader economic events. As of the latest reports, the pair is trading near the 1.3705 mark, representing a modest decrease of 0.07% from the previous close.


Market focus has been largely on the Federal Reserve’s stance regarding monetary policy. Last week, Fed officials echoed a consistent message regarding their outlook. The Boston Fed President, Susan Collins, assured that measures to control inflation are underway, emphasizing a cautious approach towards future interest rate adjustments to avoid undue disruption in the labor market. Concurrently, Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed optimism that inflationary targets are attainable, contingent upon a relaxation of housing market prices. The market consensus is increasingly leaning towards the end of the interest rate hikes, with expectations setting in for a potential loosening of monetary policy as early as May 2024.


The Bank of Canada has also shifted its tone, signaling the likely conclusion of an era characterized by historically low interest rates. This change prompts a warning for households and businesses to brace for increased borrowing costs, a stark turnaround from the trends observed in recent years. Such fiscal tightening typically influences currency valuations due to the interplay between interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have shown robust gains on Tuesday, maintaining their strong performance near a two-week high during the early European session. The persistent weakening of the US Dollar (USD) is a key driver, fueled by growing expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This shift in sentiment is providing strong support for the precious metal.


The recent disappointing US macroeconomic data has further diminished any remaining hopes of imminent interest rate hikes. Instead, it has generated speculation about the possibility of rate cuts in 2024. As a result, US Treasury bond yields have continued to decline, reinforcing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.


Despite these supportive factors, gold’s positive momentum faces some headwinds from the generally upbeat sentiment in the equity markets. Optimism has been growing regarding additional stimulus measures in China to bolster the post-pandemic economic recovery. This positive sentiment has somewhat dampened the demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair maintained its position above the 1.0900 mark, halting its previous day’s decline from a peak near 1.0965 – the highest since August 11. Currently hovering around 1.0915-1.0920, the pair shows a slight increase of under 0.10% for the day, influenced largely by fluctuations in the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), a measure against a group of currencies, couldn’t fully leverage its recent modest recovery from a near three-month trough, thereby supporting the EUR/USD’s strength. The Federal Reserve’s recent minutes suggested a continued preference for elevated interest rates, boosting US Treasury bond yields and a temporary uptick in USD value on Tuesday.


Despite this, market sentiment leans towards the Fed maintaining stable rates, anticipating a potential rate reduction at the April 30-May 1 meeting. This outlook has led to a decrease in the yield of the 10-year US government bond, limiting gains for the USD. Concurrently, hawkish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde have bolstered the Euro, providing additional momentum to the EUR/USD pair. Lagarde’s caution against premature optimism on inflation has tempered expectations of an imminent ECB rate cut. Investors remain cautious, looking for sustained buying signals before betting on the pair’s continued rise beyond key averages like the 100- and 200-day SMAs.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

The Euro/Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate has shown upward momentum, maintaining its climb above the 0.8700 mark for the second consecutive day amid early trading in the European markets on Thursday. The pair was spotted exchanging hands around the 0.8718 level, marking a modest increase of 0.17% on the day. This activity comes as traders and investors set their sights on the upcoming release of the Eurozone HCOB PMI data and UK Global S&P PMI data, both of which are poised to be publicized on Thursday. These indicators are highly anticipated as they hold the potential to incite significant fluctuations in the trading dynamics of the currency pair.


The recent trend in the Eurozone’s inflation trajectory has taken a downward turn, exceeding the forecasts of many analysts, which has consequently led to a shift in market sentiment. There’s a growing expectation among investors that the European Central Bank (ECB) may introduce a rate cut in the foreseeable future. Despite these market sentiments, ECB President Christine Lagarde, in a statement on Tuesday, conveyed a more measured approach. She emphasized that the central bank is in no rush to take action, suggesting there is adequate time to monitor the inflation trends closely following an unprecedented series of rate increments. She also underscored that the ECB has not yet fully triumphed over inflation, and discussions regarding rate reductions are somewhat premature at this juncture.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

Asian Stocks Decline Due to Chinese Market Impact, Dollar Experiences Weakness


Asian markets experienced a downturn on Friday, influenced by Chinese shares and with little direction from Wall Street, closed for a holiday. Meanwhile, the dollar remained subdued as expectations grow that U.S. interest rates have reached their peak. Japan’s core consumer inflation and factory activity data had a minimal impact on the yen.


The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.4%, although it’s still on track for a weekly rise of 0.9% and a significant 7.1% increase in November. This uptick is largely due to growing investor confidence that U.S. interest rates have reached their maximum, with focus shifting to the timing and extent of future rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei, returning from a holiday, jumped 1.0%, nearing a 33-year peak achieved earlier in the week.


Chinese blue chips dropped 0.3%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plummeted 1.3%, erasing previous gains. Hong Kong-listed Chinese developers also fell 0.7%, despite a recent 6.4% surge following new support measures from Beijing.


Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, noted that markets might undergo a period of consolidation after a rapid rebound, possibly affecting the traditional year-end rally. With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving and minor uplifts in European shares and the euro from better-than-expected euro zone PMIs, global market dynamics remained mixed.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

In the latest market developments, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has retreated from its recent peaks in the mid-0.6000 range against the US Dollar (USD), as traders position themselves ahead of the forthcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement. The currency pair, which had been enjoying a two-day ascent, witnessed a downturn during Monday’s Asian trading hours, with the NZD trading near 0.6063, reflecting a 0.38% decrease for the day.


Market sentiment has been largely influenced by the anticipation that the RBNZ will maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50% during its November policy meeting. This comes against a backdrop of inflation rates that, while having achieved a degree of stabilization, have not retreated sufficiently to warrant a policy shift.


Recent economic indicators have provided a mixed bag of results. New Zealand’s Retail Sales figures for the third quarter showed no growth quarter-over-quarter, which nevertheless surpassed the market forecasts that had anticipated a 0.8% decline. In a more encouraging sign, Retail Sales excluding auto sales saw a rebound, increasing by 1.0% for the quarter, exceeding the market consensus that had predicted a further contraction.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

The Japanese Yen has maintained its strength against the US Dollar, marking the third consecutive day of gains on Tuesday, influenced by expectations of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rising inflation figures in Japan indicate economic progress towards consistent inflation increases, which might lead the BoJ to reconsider its expansive monetary stance.


The Yen, seen as a safe-haven asset, has benefited from global recession fears, pushing the USD/JPY exchange rate down to the 148.00 level in the Asian markets. Concurrently, the US Dollar has seen a decline, hitting a nearly three-month low, amid a growing belief that the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate hikes and potentially ease monetary policy by mid-2024.


Investors are anticipating the release of the BoJ’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for further direction, ahead of several key US economic indicators, including the Consumer Confidence Index and speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. Attention is particularly focused on the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures for the third quarter and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

The Euro against the US Dollar, commonly referred to as the EUR/USD pair, has been experiencing a notable uptrend, marking its fifth day of gains during Wednesday’s early European trading session. The weakening of the US Dollar is providing a supportive backdrop for this major currency pair. As it stands, the EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1001 mark, showing a modest increase of 0.12% for the day.


Diving deeper into the technical analysis, the EUR/USD’s bullish sentiment seems to hold strong. The currency pair is trading comfortably above both the 50-hour and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart, suggesting a firm uptrend. A particularly interesting development is the potential crossover of the 50-hour EMA above the 100-hour EMA. Should this crossover materialize, it would be a strong confirmation of a Bull Cross signal. This technical event is often interpreted as an indicator that the currency pair’s momentum is skewed towards the upside, suggesting that investors and traders may find the least resistance in following an upward trajectory for the EUR/USD.


Looking at resistance levels, the pair faces immediate resistance at the upper edge of the Bollinger Band, as well as the peak reached on October 8 at the 1.1065 level. Should the bullish momentum continue, the next significant resistance could be encountered at the July 27 high of 1.1150. A successful breach of this resistance could potentially incite a rally towards the psychologically important level of 1.1200.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex.com]

Traders as they provide insights into the health of the North American economies and could significantly influence the direction of the USD/CAD pair in the near term. With the global econoThe USD/CAD currency pair has shown a reversal from its recent climb in the previous trading session, with movements detected around the 1.3580 mark during Thursday’s Asian session. The Canadian Dollar is experiencing a boost, benefiting from a dip in the US Dollar alongside strengthening Crude oil prices.


There is a noticeable downward trend in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is expected to continue its descent after a temporary upswing on Wednesday, positioning around 102.80 currently. The strength observed in the USD/CAD pair can be partly attributed to unexpectedly robust US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, with an annualized rise of 5.2% in the third quarter, surpassing both the earlier estimate of 4.9% and the market’s expectation of 5%.


Crude oil, specifically Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been on an uptrend for three consecutive days, currently trading near $77.90 per barrel. The momentum in crude oil prices is building up as the market anticipates the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies. A key focus of the meeting is the potential proposal by major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend oil supply curtailments into 2024.


Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex