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  1. #351
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    AUD Second Quarter Increase | Xtreamforex

    In the second quarter of 2022 Australian inflation data has increased to 6.1%, but below the agreed expectations relaxing the fear of a surprising 75bp rate increase when the RBA has a meeting next week.

    CPI rose by 1.8% Quarter On Quarter(QoQ) and 6.1% Year On Year(YoY). This was the highest increase since the introduction of the Goods and Services tax in the beginning of 2000.

    The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 1.4% Quarter On Quarter and 4.9% Year On Year, which was above the market expectations of 1.2% QoQ and 4.7% YoY.

    Necessary inflation is now 190bp above the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target band, and the yearly trimmed means was highest since the ABS first published the series back in 2003.

    Read Full : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  2. #352
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    The FOMC raised rates by 75 bps which was widely expected

    As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the range of its target for the the federal funds rate by 75 bps, which brings the top end of the range to 2.50%. There was widespread support for another supersized rate increase-the FOMC raised rates by 75 bps at its last meeting in June. The FOMC has now hiked rates by 225 bps since March, this much increase never happened in past 40 years.

    In todays decision, the committee again pointed to that fact that inflation remains high. For sure the YoY rate of CPI inflation rose from 8/6% in May to 9.1% in June, which was higher then others, and likely most FOMC members, had expected at the time. The statement also repeated that “the committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective”. This sentence, which was used previously in the June statement, in connection with the unanimous vote to raise rates by another 75bps today, indicates that inflation remains forefront in the minds of most FOMC members.

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  3. #353
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    The US Economy || US rate hike cycle concludes in 2022

    Last week was very active for global rebirth in risk appetite despite a run of data which pointed to deteriorating US economic growth. This is because the softer tone of US data and the FOMC’s acceptance of it implies a reducing risk of the rate hikes in excess of those already increased.

    Increasing the rate hike for the second time to a mid-point of 2.375%, Chair Powell showed a greater degree of comfort over the outlook for inflation in the July press conference. In part this stems from 2.375% being within the 2.3% interest rate range th FOMC believe to be neutral for their economy. However, the greater comfort of inflation is also a consequence of building apprehension over the outlook for growth. The press conference also made clear that the FOMC wish to undertake “just the right amount of tightening” to bring about below trend growth, not to make mistake by creating the pre conditions for recession.

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  4. #354
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    Upcoming News for this Week:- FOMC, RBA, BOE

    FOMC

    The FOMC increased rates by 75bps increasing the Fed Funds rate from 1.75% to 2.50%. The statement confirmed that spending and production were soft, however job increase remain strong. The Fed put softer data aside by saying that it anticipates ongoing increase in the Fed Funds rate. It was announced by the Fed Chairman Powell that the rate decisions will be made on a meeting to meeting basis which depends on the incoming data. On one side it was announced that another unusual large market rate hike could be expected and it could also be possible to slow down the rate hikes to get more restrictive. For now the Fed is data dependent. IF the labor markets continue to be strong, the Fed will continue hiking. If there are cracks in the labor market, the Fed may pull back the pace of rate hikes.

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  5. #355
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    Upcoming Market Updates: AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, USD, JPY

    AUD: AIG Manufacturing Index, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufactures.

    NZD: Building Consents m/m, it measures change in the number of new building approvals issued.

    JPY: Final Manufacturing PMI, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

    AUD: MI Inflation Gauge m/m, it measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

    AUD: ANZ Job Advertisements m/m, it measures change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities.

    EUR: Spanish Manufacturing PMI, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  6. #356
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    Swiss National Bank, CHF

    A message from Swiss National Bank was sent to market last week which was that it may take monetary policy measures at any time between regular assessment dates if circumstances require that. Last meeting of SNB on 16th June surprised markets and hiked interest rates by 50bps from record low of -0.75% to -0.25%. There is no schedule meeting of SNB until 22nd September this year. The Central Bank cited increased inflationary pressures as the reason for the rate hike after CPI reached a high of 2.9% YoY in May which was the highest in last 14 years. In June, inflation rose to 3.4% YoY and with CPI for July to be increased today, the SNB knows it may have to act inter-meeting if inflation, continues to rise. The expectation for the July SPI is 3.5% YoY. If the data comes in hotter than expected, be on the lookout for another rate hike before next meeting.

    EUR/CHF is trading at its lowest level since Jan 2015 if we look at the weekly timeframe, when SNB dropped the peg of the Swiss Franc to the Euro. The last weekly low was 0.9776, which happened the week after the peg.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  7. #357
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    AUD/USD After RBA Meeting

    Policy rate as expected by RBA was raised by 50 bps to 1.85% last Tuesday. This is the fourth consecutive hike and steepest in almost 30 years. This helped a little to raise AUD/USD which was down by almost 1% from the beginning of this week. This release leaves the pair to trade below psychological level of 0.70. The recent tensions between China and Taiwan have added to weaker AUD, but some of the factors have been primary driver behind this latest move.

    Latest guidance from the RBA that near-term future hikes may not be standing as the one this week was likely the bug factor behind the fall of AUD/USD. RBA also admits that it is trying hard to slow down the inflation, which hit 6.1% in second quarter without any big impact on Australian economy. A cadre of Fed speakers this week haven’t given any indication that Fed is looking to ease up on raising interest rates. Currently, the RBA, like many other major central banks, doesn’t appear capable of keeping pace with the Fed in terms of policy tightening.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  8. #358
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    Employment Rate Change In Canada

    Employment change in Canada is better than expected and this will help Bank Of Canada to hike again in next meeting which will be in September.

    NFP tomorrow, markets will be focusing on the data, and Canada will release the July Employment Change data as well. It is expected that the Unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.9%. 25,000 gain for Employment change is expected vs a June reading of -43,200. Most of the job losses from June headline were due to a decrease of 39,100 part-time jobs.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  9. #359
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    RBNZ survey of Expectations, NZD

    The expectations form RBNZ ‘s latest survey shows inflation over coming years will remain high. The trend is seen higher in recent quarters looks like arrested and the expectations easing at some of the key medium-term horizons.

    Lets look at the details, expectations for inflation one year ahead is consistent at 4.9%. Expectations at this short horizon will follow actual inflation closely. And the latest survey expects the risk of high inflation of 7.3%int the year to June, that lack of movement will be welcome news for the RBNZ.

    Central Bank’s main focus is on expecting long horizon for the next couple of years. This is a better guide to how businesses will adjust between prices and wages, and signal if the inflation target is viewed as decent. Today’s news will also have been welcomed by the central bank.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  10. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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