Daily Technical Analysis

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USD/JPY climbed higher above the 132.50 resistance zone.

A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near 134.50 on the 4-hour chart.

EUR/USD slowly moved below the 1.0620 support zone.

The US GDP grew 2.7% in Q4 2022, less than the 2.9% forecast.

The US Dollar gained strength for a steady increase above the 132.50 resistance against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY even broke the 133.20 level to move into a positive zone. The pair settled above the 133.50 level, the 100 simple moving average, and the 200 simple moving average.

The upward move was such that the pair even climbed above the 135.00 level. It is now showing positive signs above 134.50. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 134.50 on the same chart.

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EUR/USD extended its decline below the 1.0600 support.

A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.0580 on the 4-hours chart.

GBP/USD could dive if it breaks the 1.1920 support.

Gold price is at risk of a move below the $1,800 support.

The Euro started another decline after it failed to recover above 1.0800 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD extended its decline below the 1.0700 support zone.

The pair settled below the 1.0650 support level, the 100 simple moving average and the 200 simple moving average.

The decline gained pace below the 1.0620 and 1.0600 support levels. A low is formed near 1.0536 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, and immediate resistance is near the 1.0575 level.

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GBP/USD retested key 1.1920 support zone.
A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.2060.
EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.0600 resistance zone.
Gold price is struggling to stay above the $1,800 support.


The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above 1.2100 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD traded below the 1.2000 support to enter a bearish zone. The pair settled below the 1.2050 support level, the 100 simple moving average and the 200 simple moving average. It retested the key 1.1920 support zone. A low was formed near 1.1922 and the pair recently started an upside correction. There was a wave above the 1.1950 and 1.2000 resistance levels.


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NZDCHF reversed from support level 0.5750

Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5830

NZDCHF recently reversed up from the key support level 0.5750. The support level 0.5750 coincided with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward ABC correction from the start of October.

NZDCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.5830.

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EUR/USD approaches the 50-day SMA as it extends the rebound from the February low 1.0533, but a slowdown in the Euro Area’s Consumer Price Index may drag on the exchange rate as it encourages the European Central Bank to winddown its hiking-cycle.

The decline from the yearly high seems to have run its course as the Relative Strength Index reverses ahead of oversold territory, and EUR/USD may continue to trade to fresh weekly highs as the bearish momentum abates.

The update to the Euro-Area CPI may generate a bearish reaction in the EUR/USD as headline reading for inflation is expected to narrow to 8.2% from 8.6% per annum in January, and evidence of easing price pressures may push the ECB to adjust the forward guidance for monetary policy as board member Philip Lane acknowledges that the improvement in the energy price situation will in the near term lower inflation.

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An exciting week for markets, with three major currency central banks announcing their monetary policy decisions and a Nonfarm payroll report. The RBA’s meeting on Tuesday is the most likely to be the live one, but don’t write off the BOJ’s ability of surprising market at Governor Kuroda’s last meeting of his 10-year reign.

And the NFP report could be the cherry on top for the week, given it blew past expectations on January with over a 500k jobs growth print, creating a strong-dollar response and for some members to doubt their own December projections. It will certainly be a report to watch.

Money markets priced in a 4% ECB terminal rate.

Fed members continued their hawkish rhetoric, with Kashkari open to a 25 or 50bp March hike the terminal rate could be higher than 5.4%, along with Waller. Australian GDP and inflation reports were softer than expected. China’s PMI data was stronger than expected, the Hang Seng enjoyed its second best day this year.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to hike their overnight cash rate by 25bp, which would see the OCR at a 10-year high of 3.6%. We noted in their February meeting that the statement has a hawkish tone, and that the wording suggested at least two more hikes are in the pipeline.

Any adjustments to the wording of this sentence could be the difference between one or two more hikes from here – because a further increase over the months ahead would suggests one more hike is to follow, with a terminal rate at 3.85%.

With the likelihood that inflation has peaked, unemployment will slowly rise and growth will continue to soften, the case for the RBA to pause is certainly building. But the fly in the ointment is inflation above 7%, which means we’re likely to see at least two more hikes. But we can at least say with confidence that the RBA are much closer to the end of their tightening cycle, than the middle or the start.

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AUD/USD trades in a narrow range after struggling to push back above the 200-Day SMA, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision may keep the exchange rate afloat as the central bank is expected to implement higher interest rates.


AUD/USD appears to be defending the January low as it holds within last week’s range, and the exchange rate may stage further attempts to trade back above the long-term moving average as the RBA continues to carry out its hiking-cycle.


The RBA is anticipated to raise the official cash rate by another 25bp in March as the central bank insists that further increases in interest rates are likely to be needed over the months ahead, and the central bank may pursue a more restrictive policy as the recent inflation data had suggested more breadth and persistence in inflation than had been expected.


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Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the pace of quarter-point interest-rate increases is not set in stone, and a faster tightening of rates may be warranted if economic data indicates it is necessary.

Powell’s follow-up testimony tomorrow will be his last scheduled public remarks on interest-rate policy before the Fed’s next meeting, March 21-22.

Strong economic data have shifted investors rate expectations, with the rate now expected to rise to around 5.5% by midyear and remain there through the end of 2023.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged during his Capitol Hill hearings that the recent 25bps pace of interest rate increases is not set in stone. Powell expressed his belief that strong and sustained economic activity this year could prompt the central bank officials to accelerate interest rate increases. He further stated that this could lead to more rate increases than initially expected to combat high inflation.

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EUR/USD takes out the February low following the failed attempts to trade back above the 50-day SMA, and developments coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the NFP report is anticipated to show another rise in employment.


EUR/USD fails to defend the opening range for March as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns of a higher trajectory for US interest rates, and the exchange rate may struggle to hold above the January low amid growing speculation for a 50bp Fed rate hike.


According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, market participants are pricing a greater than 70% probability for the Fed funds rate to increase to a fresh threshold of 5.00% to 5.25% on March 22, and it remains to be seen if Chairman Powell and Co. will project a steeper path for US interest rates as the central bank is scheduled to update the Summary of Economic Projections.


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