Daily Technical Analysis

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Technical Overview of EUR/CHF,
NZD/USD and GBP/CHF Currency Pairs

EUR CHF

The EUR traded higher against the CHF and closed at 1.1392.

1- Mother bar @ Middle Quarter Resistance 2
2-The top is the 786 Level retracement
3- The D1 Trend line has also broken. Indicating a Bearish Movement

Scenario 1: If there is a bearish breakout of Mother bar followed by a test with low volume then we may see an AB= CD pattern, With D point in confluence with the Middle Quarter Resistance 1.

Scenario 2: If there is a bullish breakout above the yearly Pivot with a low volume retest then we may see a new Impulse leg which then extend or make a Double Top.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.13750, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13577. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14244, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14565.

Previous Day range was 49.4 and Current Day Range is 23.9.

NZD USD

The NZD traded higher against the USD and closed at 0.662.

1- H4 Mother bar @MSup1Q1
2-The 61% Level retracement

Scenario 1: If there is a bearish breakout of Mother bar followed by a test with low volume then we may see an AB= CD pattern, With D point in confluence with the Msup1Y1 & Msup1Q1


Scenario 2: If there is a bullish breakout above the yearly Pivot with a low volume retest then we may see a new Impulse leg which then extend or make a Double Top.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.65978, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.65754. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.66608, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.67014.

NZD USD previous Day range was 63 and Current Day Range is 27.5.

GBP CHF

The GBP traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.3278.

1- An Effort candle followed by climax candle.
2- Formed candles @ the previous month resistance
3- Followed by no demand no supply
4- Followed by vpoc with low volume

Scenario1: If the pair retraces to the no demand no supply area with low volume then we may see a downward movement.
Scenario 2: If we see a bullish breakout then we will need further conformations to go long.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.32556, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.32332. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.33018, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.33256.

GBP CHF previous day range was 46.2 and current day range is 50.1.

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Technical Overview of GBP/USD,
GBP/JPY and NZD/USD Currency Pairs

GBP USD

The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.3029.

The pair formed an Outside/Inside bar. Exactly on the monthly Pivot with a series of LH and LL
It formed a Fibonacci setup called AB=CD.

Scenario 1=A break above the Outside bar high and trend line may trigger bullish momentum.
Scenario 2- A break below the outer bar low and trend line may lead the pair downwards.

Employment Report for April increased by nearly 200,000 in March, while unemployment rate stood steady at 3.8 percent. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April rate of the services sector expansion slowed down in March, but the index remains at an elevated level of slightly more than 56 percent.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.30043, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.29800. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30667, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31048.

GBP USD Previous Day range was 62.4 and Current Day Range is 23.6.

GBP JPY

The GBP traded higher against the JPY and closed at 145.235.

The pair formed an Outside/Inside bar. Exactly on the monthly AND yearly Pivot with a series of LH and LL
It formed a Fibonacci setup called AB=CD
Scenario 1=A break above the Outside bar high and trend line may trigger bullish momentum.
Scenario 2- A break below the outer bar low and trend line may lead the pair downwards

The pair is expected to find support at 144.914, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 144.592. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 145.698, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 146.160.

GBP JPY previous Day range was 7840 and Current Day Range is 1700.

NZD USD

The NZD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6616.

1- H4 Outside bar Inside bar.
2- Pivot high candles forming a trend line.

Scenario 1=A break above the Outside bar high and trend line may trigger bullish momentum.
Scenario 2- A break below the outer bar low and trend line may lead the pair downwards
According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.66029, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.65896. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.66344, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.66526.

NZD USD previous day range was 31.5 and current day range is 18.4.

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Technical Overview of CHF/JPY and EUR/AUD Currency Pair

CHF JPY

The CHF traded higher against the JPY and closed at 108.824.

The followed the following actions.

1 - It broke he Monthly support upwards
2 - It broke the Quarterly support upwards
3 - Formed A Resistance Trend Line and broke it to the upside
4 - The Daily 9 ema is to the upside
5 - If the pair breaks the Up 127 extension then we may see an extended move
or
6 - If the pair breaks the down 127 extension then this may be a double top.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 108.467, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.111. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.076, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.329.

CHF JPY Previous Day range was 6090 and Current Day Range is 2530.

EUR AUD

The EUR traded higher against the AUD and closed at 1.6245.

The followed the following actions.

1- It broke the Quarterly Pivot upwards.
2 - Making a series of HH and HL.
3 - Formed A Support Trend Line.
4 - The Daily 9 ema is to the upside.
5 - If the pair breaks the Up 127 extension then we may see an extended move.
or
6 - If the pair breaks the down 127 extension then this may be a double top.
7 - The up 127 Extension is in confluence with Quarter and Year Resistance.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.62134, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.61818. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.62689, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.62928.

EUR AUD Previous Day range was 55.5 and Current Day Range is 89.4.

Fundamental Overview

Inflation in the euro area is not at the level of 2% the ECB wants it to be, the ECB policy maker Klaas Knot says.

Japan: GDP shows strong fundamentals are supporting demand US Pres. Trump: “Starting Monday, our great Farmers can begin doing business again with Mexico and Canada.

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Technical Overview of USD/JPY and EUR/AUD Currency Pair

USD JPY

The USD traded lower against the JPY and closed at 109.483.

1) Pair stalls between the quarter and year pivot.
2) Keep in mind that market is in RISK AVERSION.
3) Breakout of 127 extension may lead the pair to a short trend.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 109.314, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.144. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.618, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.752.

USD JPY Previous Day range was 3040 and Current Day Range is 2010.

EUR AUD

The EUR traded lower against the AUD and closed at 1.6176.

1) PIVOT support line broken.
2) Market is below the golden cross EMA.
3) 127 Extensions level may decide the move direction.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.61570, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.61376. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.61917, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.62070.
EUR AUD Previous Day range was 34.7 and Current Day Range is 47.

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Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF Currency Pair

AUD CAD

The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9174.


1-After making a down move of 406 pips, the pair begin ascending.
2 - It’s above the 60/80 ema.
3 - Its above the weekly and monthly Pivot.
4 - It formed a Double Top Pattern, A breakout above the 127 Extension may lead the pair to covet the space made by 406 Pip down Move.
5 - If we have a look at the Futures data then we may see that the slope of AUD is towards UP side and CAD is towards Down.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.93363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92984. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94012, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.94282.
AUD CAD Previous Day range was 64.9 and Current Day Range is 30.3.

AUD CHF

The AUD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.6941.

1 - The Pair formed a double top.
2 - It could not breach the Up extension off 127 hence it confirms a double top.
3 - The 60/80 ema is facing towards down.
4 - Fundamentally as we know market is in Risk Off Scenario so we can gain help from the strength of Safe Heaven CHF to support this trade.
5 - A space with many Open orders left to cover while going towards the down side remaining.
6 - Pair is below the Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly and weekly forming a Proper Sync formation of trend.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.69279, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69151. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69624, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69841.
AUD CHF Previous Day range was 34.5 and Current Day Range is 37.1.

Weekly Briefing

On Sunday, the Chinese government published a paper in which it was announced that China will not back off in the US-China trade war despite recent tariffs.
The Chinese securities and markets regulators announced that the impact of trade wars on financial markets can be controlled.
This may Strengthen The CNY because a few days earlier the officials said that those who short the CNY will face many Losses.

The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority stated on Sunday steady slowdown of world economy growth could negatively affect oil market and, as a result, the country's economy temps of growth. It signals that when there will be instability then Who WILL BUY OIL? The Supply may exceed Demand.

The J.P. Morgan analytics department stated on Saturday that escalating trade tensions with China and other countries could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates two more times in 2019- High interest Rate = Strength of the Economy

A fundamental surge has occurred. Due to another Trump tariff announcement the USD dropped like a brick. As a result of that commodity prices have jumped. Gold touched the 1,300.00 level on Friday.

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Technical Overview of USD/JPY and NZD/CAD Currency Pair


USD JPY

The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 108.055.

The pair formed an AB= CD pattern.
It’s below Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly pivot.
NO Price Action Signal.
It broke the Pivot support trend line.
But
Fundamentally as we know that Safe Heaven is in demand and USD has announced a rate cut so we can assume to sell on the rallies.
As we can see the VPOC level 108.22 is a good Value area to go short.
This may be a purely fundamental trade if shorts take over the market.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 107.809, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.564. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.690.
USD JPY Previous Day range was 5630 and Current Day Range is 3320.

NZD CAD

The NZD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 0.8864.

The main trend heads towards North.
Pivot support trendline formed.
Price successfully trading above the current and previous weekly pivot level.
Price breached towards north the - 3 week Pivots.
A Buy on the dips will be preferable.
For now
NZD is the strongest and USD and CAD are Weakest.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.87977. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89111.
NZD CAD Previous Day range was 56.7 and Current Day Range is 30.6.

Morning Briefing

The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut "may be warranted soon," given the rising economic risk posed by global trade tensions as well as weak U.S. inflation.
Hedge funds stepped up their negative bets on sterling.
While sterling edged further off five-month lows on Monday, rising 0.15% to $1.2645, short positions are slowly building up in the background, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors on the outlook for the British economy.
Short positions are at their highest level since March 17.
The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday to a new record low of 1.25%. We expect a follow-up cut in August, with the risk of additional stimulus by early 2020.
ING discusses EUR/USD: We are still expecting a downside breakout below the crucial horizontal support around 1.1115 in the coming weeks. This will trigger a serious Sell signal
EUR/USD Bulls May Retreat If ECB Tilts Dovish On Thursday.
Squawk: Prefer to sell USD/JPY on rallies, while maintains a long NZD/CAD as its trade of this week targeting a move towards 0.8950.

Overview of Gold

From a theoretical point of view, it is expected, that a reversal south could occur in the nearest future.
In this case, the rate has to surpass the 1,309.31 level.
If the given support level holds, it is likely, that gold could trade sideways between it and the upper channel line.
It is unlikely, that the price for gold could jump higher than 1,333.68 due to the resistance of the Q1 R1.
Gold is above the yearly and Quarterly Pivots.
Better to wait for the Metal to form a Double Top and Fill the space it made.
Technically if we look at the Futures Data then we see that the data is making a formation of Double Top. If we break the neck line then we may have a down movement.
On the other hand we can see downwards slope in the USD Futures a crossover may strengthen USD.
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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair
EUR /USD

• EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1193

The market is well placed to retest resistance at 1.1197- 1.1240 – namely the 55-week ma, the 2019-2020 down channel and the recent high. This guards the 200-week ma at 1.1360 which continues to represent a critical breakpoint medium term.”

“Dips lower are well supported by the 55 and 20-day ma at 1.1095/1.1065 and the 3-month uptrend at 1.1045.”

“Failure at the uptrend would target the 1.0981 29th November low.”


According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1167 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1156 The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1205 and a rise through could take it to the next the resistance level of 1.1216.

GBP / USD

· GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3167

“We look for dips lower to remain well supported by the 55-day ma at 1.2987. The low on the 23rd December was 1.2908 and while above here we will assume an upside bias to retest the December high at 1.3515.”

“The December high at 1.3515 guards the September 2017 high and 38.2% retracement (of the move down from 2014) at 1.3658/68. This guards the more important 1.3918 2007 -2020 downtrend.”

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2841 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2604. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3461, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3607.

Important Economic Events of the Day

· EUR Retail Sales m/m.

· EUR Retail Sales y/y.

· GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction.

· USD Trade Balance.

More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

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Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/USD Currency Pair

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3017.

GBP/USD looks to extend the bounce towards 1.3050 ahead of the UK CPI report, as broad-based US dollar weakness and bullish technical set up underpin the sentiment around the
spot.

• Flat - closed up 0.2%, as expectations of a Jan BoE cut cooled
• Inflation data on today and retail sales Friday will be key for sterling
• Despite bounce daily charts are negative, though at low end of recent ranges
• Momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower and 21 day Bolli bands slip
• 1.2900, December low then 1.2887 lower 21 day Bolli band are major support

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2973 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2954. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3033, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3052.

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1127.

• EUR/USD barely moved in Asia trading in a 1.1126/31 range
• Most of the action in regionals as USD moved up on Mnuchin comments\
• Resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1140 with option selling ahead of 1.1150
• Large option maturities 1.1100/50 defining recent range
• Break above 1.1150 targets 61.8 fibo of 1.1240/1.1085 at 1.1181
• EZ IP later today, but US-China trade deal likely to be main event

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1111 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1101. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1141 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1151.

Economic events of the Day

• USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
• USD EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change
• USD FOMC Member Harker Speech

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/JPY and Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at: 1.1094

• Touch softer - closed up 0.05% after recording a fresh 1.1076 Jan low
• UK to set out goals for EU trade talks - PM Johnson's spokesman
• Charts show momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower - negative setup
• 1.1080/85, 61.8% of the Nov-Dec bounce and Jan double bottom held on close
• Sustained 1.1075 break a bearish signal, next stop 1.1042 76.4% Nov-Dec rise
• 1.1113, 38.2% of the January dip and 5 DMA is initial resistance
• 1.1100 350M, 1.1125 230M, and 1.1140-50 1.5BLN strikes cap

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1082 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1076. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1102 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1108

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 110.18.

USD/JPY extends losses while taking rounds to 110.00 during early Tuesday. The pair shrugged off the BOJ’s widely anticipated monetary policy decision as risk aversion seems to be in the play.

• USD/JPY extends the recent losses despite BOJ holding its monetary policy intact while keeping forward guidance on interest rates intact.
• News of corona virus outbreak recently triggered risk-off; trade-positive news from the Chinese Commerce Ministry failed to please buyers.
• Geopolitical plays in the Middle East, trade headlines will welcome the US traders returning from the extended weekend.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 110.13 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.21 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.24

Economic Events of the Day

• JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• JPY BoJ Press Conference
• GBP Claimant Count Change
• EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!