In the early hours of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair found itself in a stable position, hovering just above the mid-1.3500s range. This marks a phase of consolidation for the pair, following its recent descent to a one-and-a-half-week low that was recorded just the day before.
One of the key factors influencing the exchange rate dynamics in this context is the robust performance of crude oil prices. These prices have been on an upward trajectory, currently residing close to a 10-month high. The driving force behind this surge is the mounting concerns over tightening global supplies of oil. OPEC’s decision to implement deeper supply cuts, coupled with a surge in global demand, has set the stage for further tightening of oil markets throughout the year. In light of this, the Canadian dollar, often regarded as a petrocurrency due to its close correlation with oil prices, is experiencing a boost, while the US dollar is grappling with a muted performance. This divergence between the two currencies has effectively established a level of resistance for the USD/CAD pair.
As traders navigate these market dynamics, a notable event on the horizon is the impending release of the US consumer inflation figures, scheduled for later in the North American trading session. These figures are highly anticipated as they are expected to offer crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective plans regarding interest rate hikes. The outcome of this release is poised to significantly influence the directional course of the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, the prevailing sentiment among investors is one of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining a hawkish stance and prolonging higher interest rates. This sentiment is partly rooted in the recent string of positive macroeconomic data emanating from the United States, coupled with inflation that has shown a slower-than-expected pace of increase. These factors collectively lend support to the notion of further monetary policy tightening in the near future.
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