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  1. #461
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    FOMC Hikes Rates and Signals More to Come

    As universally expected, the FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of its policy meeting today. But the tightening cycle likely is not over yet as the FOMC noted that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate”.

    The FOMC said that “inflation has eased somewhat’” which Chair Powell reiterated in his post-meeting press conference. But he also noted that the committee “has more work to do” in terms of monetary tightening to bring inflation back to the FOMC’s target of 2% on a sustained basis. Powell also stated that policy will need to be restrictive for some time.

    We look for the FOMC to hike the fed funds target rate by 25 bps each at its next two policy meetings. That said, we do not have a high level of conviction regarding the exact amount of tightening that the Committee will need to deliver. The FOMC is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle, and future rate hikes will depend on incoming data in coming weeks and months.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  2. #462
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    USD/CNH, China’s Economy Expanding

    The National Bureau of Statistics China released PMI data this week which shows both the manufacturing and services sector are expanding.

    Appetite for risk has enjoyed a great to start to the year, mostly thanks to China reopening and abandoning their covid-zero policy. It was a key reason as to why the International Monetary Fund chose to not downgrade global growth forecasts for the first time in a year, and tentatively call for a ‘turning point’ in the global economy. And that is so far being backed up by data coming for China.

    This week we have seen four headline PMI survey released covering manufacturing and services, three of which have beat expectations and expanded. If PMI’s are above 50 is denotes expansion and I favorable for growth prospects in the future. Admittedly manufacturing is the laggard as the NBS print only expanded by 50.1, yet both service PMI’s accelerated higher.

    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  3. #463
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    RBA Expected to Hike by 25bps

    The RBA are expected to rise interest rates by 25 bp to 3.35% tomorrow, which would take rates to their highest level since September 2012. If so, it would be their fourth consecutive 25bp hike and ninth back-to-back hike this cycle – which is their most aggressive in history. Even so, their rates remain well below RBNZ’s 4.25% and Fed’s 4.75%, both of those central bank started hiking considerably sooner than the RBA, and continue to battle high levels of inflation.


    Unemployment is 3.5% compared with the RBA’s 3.4% forecast in November, but this is not likely a large enough deviation for it to matter, and employment numbers are robust overall. Wage prices are on target at 3.1% q/q, but inflation is a fly in the ointment for the RBA.


    According to a Reuters poll, 30 out of 31 economists expect a 25bp hike to 3.35% tomorrow, up from 23 out of 27 in January. 19 out of 30 see the cash rate peaking at 3.6%, but there is a greater chance of it eventually rising above 4% than the consensus currently estimates. US inflation peaked in July yet the Fed are still hiking, and inflation in Australia has not yet peaked. And whilst China’s reopening has brought with it cheers of a soft landing, it is also inflationary which could see CPI reaming higher and stickier than anticipated later this year. And whilst the employment situation remains robust and inflation remains high, it’s a green light for the RBA to continue hiking.


    The Aussie took quite a battering on Thursday and Friday following the Fed’s meeting and strong NFP report, and fell -3.7% from its YTD high by Friday’s close. There’s been a mild attempt move lower today, but we’ve seen the meat of the downside move for now. And with the RBA tipped to hike tomorrow, this leaves the potential for AUD/USD to post a countertrend move ahead of the meeting – with its fate to then be decided by the level of RBA tightening.




    Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

  4. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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