Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Eye Key Upside Break


GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave above the 1.1250 resistance. GBP/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 167.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound started a recovery wave above the 1.1250 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1395 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY declined heavily before it found support near the 165.00 zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 167.00 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.1150 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.1200 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.1250 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the 1.1564 swing high to 1.1146 low.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1355 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the 1.1564 swing high to 1.1146 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1380 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1395 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.1450.

An upside break above 1.1450 might start a fresh increase towards 1.1550. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.1600 or even 1.1640.

An immediate support is near the 1.1300. The next major support is near the 1.1270 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. If there is a break below the 1.1270 support, the pair could test the 1.1200 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1150.

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House prices in the UK take a nosedive hinting at depth of recession


Whilst it certainly is true that house prices in the UK do not bear a direct relation to the capital markets or world of multi-asset electronic trading, it is most certainly a point of interest that when house prices move up or down, it is an indicator of the confidence in, and security of the domestic economy.

Britain is a home-owning nation. The phrase 'An Englishman's home is his castle' has been very appropriate for many generations and more than just a home, many residents in the United Kingdom see their home as a solid investment which should appreciate steadily over time.

Therefore, when house prices actually decrease, especially by some significant amount, such a decrease can be used as a measure of the weakening condition of the overall economy, which in turn may affect currency and stock markets.

The decreasing value of the British Pound against Western major currencies during the course of mid-2022 until very recently has been a case in point.

Just a few days after the shortest tenure for any Prime Minister in British history was held by Liz Truss for just 44 days, replacement Prime Minister Rishi Sunak took office and the new Chancellor of the Exchequer reversed Ms. Truss and former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's budget, with some commentators having even ventured their opinion that had it not been reversed, severe fiscal damage may have been done to the British economy.

Now, as the economy continues to flounder, house prices are at their lowest point since February 2021, this time caused by the increasing cost of borrowing money from banks in the form of mortgages, and the removal of a series of mortgage products from the market by no less than 10 British banks.

Those with mortgages are set for in some cases substantial increases in monthly payments as the interest rates continue to rise, with an expectation of 5 to 6% being reached by January 2023.

Average house prices slid 0.4 per cent between September and October, the most they have fallen since February 2021 and following a 0.1 per cent decline in September according to data from Halifax, one of the UK's largest mortgage lenders.

In February 2021, house prices were at a low point after a brutal period of lockdowns during which many people found their place of employment closed by the government, and payment holidays were commonplace as were fears of unaffordability of monthly commitments.

During the middle of 2021, the British government canceled stamp duty (property purchase tax) for buyers of properties under a certain value, which boosted the market and prices of lower valued properties increased tremendously, largely bolstered by 'buy-to=let' landlords picking up properties with no purchase tax.

That has long since ended, and now with the economy in a sustained state of recession, house prices are once again an indicator of the overall health of the fiscal position in the United Kingdom.

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US Tech stocks under scrutiny as layoffs make presence felt


During the course of last year, the previously very steady 'big tech' stocks became very volatile.

Big tech - a term often used to describe large-cap, publicly listed technology giants with their origins in Silicon Valley such as Meta, Alphabet (Google), Twitter, Tesla, Netflix and Amazon - is an area of the US stock market indices which has over recent years attracted steady, conservative investment due to overall lack of sudden movements.

The past 12 months have turned that on its head, and there have been times at which the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices, along with the overall performance of the two major New York-based stock exchanges, NYSE and NASDAQ having been affected noticeably by larger moves than had previously been the case.

One of the reasons for the sudden volatility had been the need for US tech firms to have to pay their suppliers and employees in different countries more, due to inflation and the depreciation of certain currencies against the US Dollar, however there had been a few more reasons and some of them are down to internal corporate policy. For example, Elon Musk's recent attempts to purchase Twitter have been surrounded by speculation that he may fire a substantial proportion of the existing workforce.

Overall, however, the staff redundancies in the big tech sector have not been limited to high profile speculation about Elon Musk's plans at Twitter. They have been far more widespread than this, as depicted by last week's employment figures released by the US Government.

Whilst some 261,000 new jobs were filled in the United States in October, blowing away analyst expectations of 200,000, the tech sector has been slowing down recruitment, and in some cases laying off existing staff.

Amazon, Apple and Facebook (Meta) have all announced hiring freezes, and in some cases are making redundancies.

Californian ride-sharing app developer Lyft is about to lay off 13% of its staff, and among the bigshots, Facebook is looking at reducing its workforce at subsidiaries WhatsApp and Instagram.

On a Year on Year basis, Amazon stock is down over 40% and Apple stock is down 25%, partly caused by production delays of its new iPhone 14 which is produced in China and has been subject to factory closures due to the Chinese government's draconian lockdowns which are still in force.

If the sensationalist news is to be believed, Twitter would look to lay off half of its entire payroll under Elon Musk's leadership.

Interestingly, despite the clear downturn in tech company revenues and their intention to reduce headcount compared to the 'low tech' American industries actually hiring more than expected in October, the S&P500 is actually up to 3,800 today compared to yesterday's low point of less than 3,700 which represented a five-day low.

The NASDAQ composite index is up a little too, at 10,560 over yesterday's 10,294 but today's increases still do not take it back to the high points at the beginning of last week.

It appears as though these possible layoffs are currently lingering in the background and until they have actually taken place, corporate performance is still being taken at face value.

What this does show, however, is that tech stocks are still quite steady and not so easily affected by news and are more affected by actions from within the firms themselves.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 08th NOV 2022


BTCUSD: Shooting Star Pattern Below $21470

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 21470 on 05th Nov, the price started to correct lower against the US dollar and is now trading below the $20000 handle in the European trading session.

We can see that the price is declining due to heavy selling pressure seen across the global crypto markets, and the price of bitcoin is expected to break below the $19000 handle this week.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

We can see the formation of bearish engulfing lines in the 1-hour time frame.

The price of bitcoin is below the pivot point and camarilla S3 support level, indicating the bearish trends present in the market.

We can clearly see a shooting star pattern below the $21470 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 20666 and an intraday low of 19413 in the Asian trading session today.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 27 indicating a VERY WEAK demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of selling pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly exponential moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 19000 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility with a strong bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $21470
• The STOCHRSI range is indicating an oversold level
• The price is now trading below its pivot level of $19818
• Most of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL market signal

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $21470


We can now see that the price of bitcoin failed to clear the $22000 handle and is now moving towards the $19000 level.

The MACD has crossed down its moving average in the daily time frame indicating a bearish trend.

The parabolic SAR indicator is giving a bearish reversal signal in the daily time frame.

We can see the formation of a bearish price crossover pattern with adaptive moving average AMA20 and AMA50 in the daily time frame.

We have also seen a black evening star in the weekly time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $19475 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4 week low, and the price needs to remain above these levels for any potential bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 19646 and Fibonacci resistance level of 19700 after which the path towards 19000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 4.68% by 970$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 66.898 billion. We can see an increase of 51.65% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which is due to the heavy selling pressure seen in the global markets.

The Week Ahead

The price of Bitcoin is moving in a strongly bearish zone below the $20000 level. Further downsides are projected at $19000 and $18500 as the immediate targets.

Now we are aiming for $19385which is an 18-day moving average.

The daily RSI is printing at 45 which indicates a neutral demand for bitcoin and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD has already crossed below $19855 which is a 50% retracement from a 4-week high/low.

The weekly outlook is projected at $19000 with a consolidation zone of $19250.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence MACD (12, 26): is at -303.10 indicating a SELL

The commodity channel index CCI (14): is at -107.49 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change ROC: is at -4.53 indicating a SELL

The bull/bear power (13): is at -775.38 indicating a SELL

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Tesla stock takes very mild downturn as Musk sells $4 billion worth of stock


Tesla has proven itself to be an extremely unusual force to be reckoned with not only by way of the disruptive influence it has had on the traditional motor industry which is suddenly rallying to transition from internal combustion to electric power, but also on the world of large corporate industry.

As recently as 10 years ago, most motorists worldwide would have continued their long-held belief that electric cars are awful contraptions and that there is nothing like a powerful internal combustion engine to reinforce the fun and experience of car ownership and the driving experience, and motoring groups and media mocked the gormless 'milk float' stature of the attempts to go electric that had gone before.

Suddenly from outside the car industry came Tesla, with no heritage and no 120 years of automotive pedigree and took the world by storm.

Now, Tesla has ten times the market capitalization of Ford Motor Company and is considered to be among America's 'big tech' band of commercial giants such as Amazon and Google.

Yesterday, CEO Elon Musk sold $4 billion worth of Tesla stock. That is a lot of money. It is also a big move by a CEO who is well known for his self-starting, 'my way or the highway' approach to running businesses and influencing entire market sectors and industries.

Surely if Elon Musk cashes out to such a degree, the direction of the company may be diluted and it would take a downturn?

Not really. Yes, the stock has decreased in value slightly but not by very much at all.

Today, Tesla stock is down 2% to 1.91, however when looking over the 5 day period, it is down an unbelievable 34%, so perhaps Elon Musk is cashing out at a time during which the firm's stock is crashing in value over a longer period of time.

Perhaps Tesla has made its point, and now with the rental car fleets, taxi companies and lease market totally flooded with the Model 3, it is no longer considered a novelty, especially considering that the traditional car manufacturers are making arguably much better electric cars. Porsche is selling more fully electric Taycans than all of its other models, and today Volvo launches its fully electric SUV the EX90. BMW and Mercedes Benz have gone fully electric across the range, and the Audi e-Tron is universally popular.

Elon Musk is a savvy investor as much as he is a savvy innovator.

Perhaps he is pulling some capital to safety at a time during which Tesla stock is declining and he has long since made his point.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 10th NOV, 2022


ETHUSD: Hammer Pattern Above $1072

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum, and after touching a high of 1654 on 05th Nov, the price started to decline against the US dollar touching a low of 1079 on 10th Nov, 2022.

Today we can see some upwards correction in the price of Ethereum which has touched $1200 handle in the European trading session.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a hammer pattern above the $1072 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1203 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1230 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1246 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 47 indicating a neutral market and a shift towards the correction and consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the price is back over the pivot point indicating a bullish scenario in the daily time frame.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an overbought market, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a BUY market signal.

Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1350 to $1400 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1072 mark
• Short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1100 level
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1072


ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1150 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday low of 1127 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1217 in the European trading session today.

We can see a bullish trend reversal signal with moving average MA50 in the 15-minute time frame.

Some of the technical indicators still continue to give bearish signals including the rate of price change.

The price of Ethereum is marching towards a nullish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD could continue to move higher back towards the $1400 level.

The daily RSI is printing at 36 indicating a very weak demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1077 which is a 1-month low, and 1184 which is a pivot point.

ETH has increased by 1.79% with a price change of 20.91$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 36.854 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 13.76% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of ETH continues to remain in a bullish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD is expected to move higher towards the $1300 and $1400 levels this week.

On the upside, we are now looking at the immediate targets of 1303 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4-week low, and 1372 which is a 50% retracement from 4-week high/low.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support levels of $1188 which is the last support point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1450 with a consolidation zone of $1350.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index ADX (14): is at 37.20 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 3.057 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 37.90 indicating a BUY

High/lows (14): is at 25.17 indicating a BUY

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye Additional Gains


AUD/USD is moving higher and showing positive signs above 0.6550. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim more upsides above 0.6050.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.6450 and 0.6500 levels against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6455 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 0.5950 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5880 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 0.6380 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace above the 0.6450 level to move into a positive zone.

There was a clear move above the 0.6500 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6455 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart


The pair even climbed above the 0.6550 level and traded as high as 0.6631. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 0.6610 level. On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6375 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6386 swing low to 0.6631 high.

The next support could be the 0.6550 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6550 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6500 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6386 swing low to 0.6631 high.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6640 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.6660 level. A close above the 0.6660 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6750.

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Watch FXOpen's November 7 - 11 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• FTX crash overshadows inflation news
• Bearish reversal in the oil market?
• EUR/USD aiming at more upsides
• Big tech stocks in focus

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.



FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Climbs Higher, EUR/GBP Eyes Upside Break


GBP/USD started a recovery wave and climbed above the 1.1750 resistance. EUR/GBP is trading above the 0.8700 support and might eye a fresh increase.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh increase after it broke the 1.1550 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a decent increase and remained well bid above the 0.8700 support.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8765 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound found support near the 1.1350 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a recovery wave and was able to clear the 1.1550 resistance zone.

There was a decent increase above the 1.1650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.1750 level. A high was formed near 1.1852 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1780 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD, below which it could test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1334 swing low to 1.1852 high.

The next major support is near the 1.1650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.1600 support zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1334 swing low to 1.1852 high.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1820 level. The next main resistance is near the 1.1850 zone. A clear upside break above the 1.1820 and 1.1850 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance sits near the 1.2000 level.

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US may avoid recession whereas Europe may plunge deeper


Just before the weekend began, reports from the United States showed that there is finally some light at the end of what has been a very long tunnel as inflation began to decrease.

On Friday, figures were released showing that consumer price increases eased to 7.7% in October which, although still high compared to the levels most consumers in North America have been used to over recent years, is a definite step in the right direction after inflation headed over the double figures mark a few months ago.

In Europe, however, things are not showing any signs of change. In the United Kingdom it remains just under 10%, and in the Eurozone its 10.7%.

Whereas the majority of the Eurozone and Britain were locked down periodically for over a year and a half, some parts of the United States remained free of any such draconian rules and had managed to maintain productivity. Some of those areas were the states of Florida and Texas, which are both highly urbanized states with large industrial capacity.

This is certainly one factor, as by comparison the Eurozone and United Kingdom had their entire economies postponed for a sustained period of time and are now in fiscal dire straits with that as a major contributing factor.

This morning, analysts at Morgan Stanley reinforced this dynamic, stating that Britain and the euro zone economies are likely to tip into recession next year, whereas by contrast the United States may avoid a recession thanks to a resilient job market.

Morgan Stanley's analysis of this situation also focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the investment bank considers that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the interest rates at a high level during 2023 as although inflation has decreased in October, 7.7% is still high enough to warrant maintaining high interest rates.

According to a report by Reuters today, Morgan Stanley predicts a sharp split between developed economies in 2023 which are "in or near recession" while emerging economies "recover modestly" but said an overall global pickup would likely remain elusive. China's economy was predicted to grow 5% in 2023, outpacing the average 3.7% growth expected for emerging markets, while the average growth in the Group of 10 developed countries was forecast at just 0.3%.

The value of the British Pound against the US Dollar has performed accordingly, as the Pound dropped in value this morning on the opening of the London trading session, after a substantial rise in value over the weekend, marking a steady move away from several weeks of plummeting Pound values.

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