Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Economic Calendar: US Labour Market and ISM Manufacturing PMI Data, RBA and OPEC+ Meetings


The start of October brings plenty of macro data for traders to analyse as high inflation and low growth continue to weigh heavily on central bankers' and politicians' minds.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (17:00 GMT+3) from the States gets the ball rolling on Monday. It has been below 50 (signalling a contraction) for almost a year now, but the last couple of months have been better than expected. 47.7 is the analysts' estimate for this month, so anything above this could be bullish for the US dollar.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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META Analysis: Price Target Raised to $390


Last week, the Meta Connect event took place, where the following were presented:
→ new Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses with a camera and microphones, including for broadcasting on social networks. The price of the gadget is USD 299;
→ Meta Quest 3 virtual reality helmet priced at USD 499;
→ AI characters for social networks, as well as Meta AI chatbot.

Overall, the products were received favourably. And now analysts are making predictions about how this will affect the stock price. Thus, Truist Securities analyst Youssef Squali raised his target price to USD 390 per META share, expecting that:
→ revenue will increase by 21% year on year;
→ the company will receive many benefits through the implementation of AI (for example, Emu — an image generation model; Studio AI — a platform for developers that allows one to create new and customized AI).

Add to this that the increase in revenue should be facilitated by the company’s intention to offer a subscription fee of USD 14 per month for using Instagram and Facebook, which will allow one to disable advertising.

The daily chart of META stock, meanwhile, shows a mixed picture.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Analysis: The Rate Updates Its Multi-month Low


Never in its history has the euro fallen for 11 weeks in a row against the dollar, but it happened. The minimum has been set for 2023.

The reason seems to be that in an environment where central banks are raising rates to combat inflation, the US economy appears to be favored. Yesterday's batch of news confirmed this:
→ US ISM Manufacturing PMI index turned out to be higher than expected (actual = 49.0; forecast = 47.8; previous value = 47.6).
→ In his speech at a roundtable in Pennsylvania, the Fed chairman said: “Lots of good things happen,” commenting on the strong labor market. Today, by the way, at 17:00 GMT+3 JOLTS data on the number of vacancies will be released, which can confirm the stability of the economy.

The attractiveness of USD is also affected by rising US government bond yields, as investors need dollars to buy them.

How long can the fall of the euro continue, which is already “settled” below the level of 1.05?

If the fundamental balance of power between the economies of Europe and the United States remains unchanged, the rate may reach the lower boundary of the bearish channel (shown in red).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Top 5 Stocks to Watch in October:

Bank on the Backfoot, No Thirst for Coca-Cola, Tech Giant Takes Dip and Electric Vehicle Volatility


October is here, and as the markets enter a new month, we take a closer look at five stocks that could be of significant interest to investors.

1) Bank of America

Bank of America stock has taken a dive over the past weeks and entered October on a low point. Down from the high of $29 on September 14 to the mid $26 range at the close of business on the first trading day of October, it is now at its lowest point in six months. Yesterday, Bank of America stated that capitulation is a likely event when discussing the possibility of big drawdowns in October, and the sentiment of investors is reflected in these reduced share values. The company's CEO has said this week that he believes there will not be a recession, therefore giving rise to some investor confidence across the US markets.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The American Currency Resumes Growth


The beginning of October turned out to be favourable for continued growth in the US dollar. From the data published yesterday, it follows that in September, the US manufacturing business activity index (PMI) rose to 49.0 against the forecast of 47.7. The ISM manufacturing employment index for the same period also turned out to be positive: 51.2 versus 48.3. Add to this the hawkish statements of the FOMC members who have spoken in recent days, and we can observe another upward impulse on the greenback.

NZD/USD

For commodity currencies, the current week is extremely rich in important fundamentals. This morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia met, tomorrow, the RBNZ will announce its verdict on the rate, and on Friday, the US employment report will be released.

According to analysts' forecasts, the New Zealand regulator will leave the rate unchanged, which may put additional pressure on the NZD/USD pair. On the weekly timeframe, we are seeing a rebound from the important level of 0.6000. If the current situation does not change, we can expect a renewal of the March low of this year at 0.5860. We can consider cancelling the downward scenario only after a confident consolidation above 0.6050.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Tumbles While USD/JPY Seems Unstoppable


EUR/USD remained in a bearish zone and declined below 1.0530. USD/JPY is again rising and might climb toward the 150.00 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0530 support zone.
• There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0475 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 148.00 and 148.75 levels.
• There was a rejection noticed near a bearish trend line at 150.15 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0650 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0530 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0500 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0448 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near a short-term bearish trend line at 1.0475.

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low at 1.0485.

A clear move above the 1.0485 level could send the pair toward the 1.0530 resistance. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low. An upside break above 1.0530 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0615.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0450. The next key support is at 1.0420. If there is a downside break below 1.0420, the pair could drop toward 1.0380. The next support is near 1.0335, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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E-mini S&P 500 Falls to Lowest Since Early Summer


Job openings rose to 9.6 million in August, the highest level since April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. That's nearly 700,000 more than in July and well above the Dow Jones forecast of 8.8 million.

A strong labor market may indicate a growing economy, but why did E-mini S&P 500 futures fall to their lowest level since early summer? It's about the Fed's high rates.

A strong labor market makes the case for keeping rates high for longer to slow inflation to the 2% target. And high rates mean a decrease in the profitability of companies' businesses; accordingly, we see the development of bearish sentiment in the stock market. We wrote about this scenario in an analytical review on September 19, before the last FOMC meeting took place.

In addition, high Federal Reserve rates make bonds more attractive and portfolio managers, it can be assumed, are transferring capital from the stock market to bonds, as well as to cash (the dollar index hit a new high of the year yesterday).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Fed Policymakers Ponder Prolonged High Rates Amidst Inflation Dilemma


The US Federal Reserve's persistent strategy of increasing interest rates to combat inflation and subsequently maintaining them at elevated levels has sparked a contentious debate in Western financial markets. While US Federal Reserve officials emphasise the necessity of a restrictive monetary policy to rein in inflation and bring it down to the Fed's 2% target, there remains an underlying dispute regarding the potential for another rate hike later this year.

It's crucial to note that inflation in the United States has been relatively well-contained for over a year, a far cry from the double-digit inflation still plaguing certain regions in Europe. Nevertheless, central bankers' approach to monetary policy remains notably conservative.

One of the paramount concerns facing the US economy is its staggering national debt, which surpasses that of most Western economies. Surprisingly, despite this financial burden, the US dollar continues to exhibit strength, notably gaining significant ground against the British pound in recent weeks.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Yen and Commodity Currencies Hit Annual Lows


Yesterday, one could observe a continuation of the upward momentum in the dollar. Good data on the number of open vacancies in the US labour market from JOLTS allowed the USD/JPY pair to update its annual maximum at 150.00. The USD/CAD currency pair has strengthened above 1.3700, and the AUD/USD pair is approaching last year’s extremes at 0.6200-0.6100.

USD/JPY

The American currency continues to hold its leading position in the first five-day trading period of October. But, since many pairs have reached important levels, corrective pullbacks from the main movements can be expected in the near future. Thus, the USD/JPY pair fell sharply yesterday after testing the psychological level of 150.00 and lost more than 250 points in just an hour. US dollar buyers very quickly returned the price above 149.00, but apparently, the range of 150.20-150.00 could become a serious obstacle to further growth of USD/JPY. A corrective downward pullback for the pair may be limited by recent extremes at 147.30-148.50.

Today at 15:15 GMT+3, we are waiting for preliminary data on employment in the US for September from ADR. A little later, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for the same period will be released.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

WTI Oil Analysis: Price Falls 10% in Less Than a Week


In our article “Oil Analysis: Finally, A Bearish Reversal?” on September 21, we drew attention to emerging signs that the initiative was shifting to the bears. This was noticeable in the changes in the dynamics of impulses and corrections, as well as in the analysis of the interaction between trading volumes and prices.

Since then, the bulls were able to update the high of the year on September 28, but the price did not stay there for long, falling sharply in the following days. Three bearish candles formed on the chart, which confirmed the problems of the bulls, and the double top pattern (A-B) also became relevant.

Another principle of technical analysis that emphasized the dominance of supply over demand is that each upward move was approximately 2 times weaker than the downward move. This can be seen in the consistent structure characteristic of a bearish trend:

→ the C→D move is approximately 50% of the B→C bearish momentum;

→ the rebound from the median line of the ascending channel E→F is approximately 50% of the bearish impulse D→E;

→ the bounce from the (now former) support line 87.50 G→H is approximately 50% of the bearish momentum F→G.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.