Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Watch FXOpen's March 13 -17 Weekly Market Wrap Video

*In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• There will be more bank failures
• Inflation data was not surprising. What will happen next?
• Turkish Lira crisis lingers with sustained record low against USD
• Oil updates the minimums of the year

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.




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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Regains Strength While EUR/GBP Faces Many Hurdles


GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is struggling and facing resistance near the 0.8780 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 barrier against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP found support near 0.8715 and is currently recovering higher.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8780 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound steady increase after it settled above the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 1.2080 resistance zone.

During the increase, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance zone and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


A high is formed near 1.2205 and the pair is now consolidating gains. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2160 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to 1.2205 high.

The next major support is near the 1.2120 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to 1.2205 high.

Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2050 support zone. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.2200 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. A clear move above the 1.2220 level could spark a decent increase.

The next major resistance sits near the 1.2320 level. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 1.2400 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

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Swiss tsunami rips through global markets: FTSE 100 wipeout noticeable


Last week’s revelations that Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland which is also a global market-maker at Tier 1 interbank level, has got into financial dire straits has had more than an effect on the local banking sector.

As is to be expected, the demise of such as key financial institution has had a major impact on many other markets internationally, one of which is the FTSE 100 index in London.

By Thursday last week, just days after the possibility of a total demise of Credit Suisse had become a real concern, £76 billion was wiped off the value of the index which contains London’s top 100 stock in blue-chip companies.

Over the past five days, the FTSE 100 index has lost 5.8% in value, and is now at its lowest point in over a month, down some 9.8% over the past 30 days.

This morning, as the markets open in London for the first time this week, it was clear that the collapse of Credit Suisse has taken its toll across a whole range of asset classes and company stocks.

One of the reasons for a further tumble in value this morning is that a possible deal between UBS, another Swiss banking giant, and Credit Suisse has not been successful, meaning that even for $1, Credit Suisse was unsaleable.

Bank stocks across the world have depreciated due to the collapse of yet another Tier 1 bank, which has gone the same way as many banks over the past 15 years despite all of the regulatory overhauls and possible lessons learned from the 2008/2009 financial crisis in which a whole host of large commercial banks in Europe and North America collapsed, with some disappearing forever after hundreds of years in business, and some being nationalised at the expense of the taxpayer.

Confidence, therefore is low and added to that are fall-out factors such as the total write-off of US$17 billion worth of Credit Suisse bonds as part of the proposed UBS deal sparked concern about similar debt and sent banking shares down further.

Lloyds Banking Group PLC, HSBC, Standard Chartered and NatWest shares dropped in value by 3.3%. 2.8%, 7.2% and 3.3% respectively and the FTSE 100 is now languishing at 7.335.

It certainly appears that the 8,000 points that analysts were looking at a few weeks ago is now an unfulfilled and distant memory.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

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British Pound reaches one-month high against US Dollar despite banking crisis


There has been so much focus on the shock waves that have been sent through the global markets this week as a result of what has now become viewed as a ‘banking crisis’ that only a downward direction in value for stocks and currencies has been considered.

Credit Suisse, the second largest Swiss bank, and one of the world’s largest Tier 1 interbank Forex dealers has collapsed after a few years of serious financial problems and ill-judged decisions such as the 2021 revelation that the bank had helped Bill Hwang, a trader whose activities got him banned in Hong Kong, move his activities to New York and rebrand his high risk hedge fund as Archegos before beginning down the same path that got him banned in New York, costing Credit Suisse $5.5 billion.

There have been other such disasters too, and some loss-making years over the course of the past decade but it is clear that now we are witnessing the end of Credit Suisse in its current form, and even UBS pulled out of a deal to buy it for $1.

The havoc that this has wreaked, including a lack of trust in banks once again – memories are not so short as to forget the credit crunch and banking collapses of the late 2000s, where many banks were either bankrupt after hundreds of years in business, or bailed out by the taxpayers and nationalised – is now noticeable on European stock exchanges as bank stocks have dived, and in currency prices.

However, it is important to note that it is not just the European side of the Atlantic that has been subjected to high value, high profile banking collapses over the past week.

Silicon Valley Bank in the United States collapsed last week, causing a ripple effect which meant that regional banks, of which there are a lot in the United States, lost a lot of value. One particular bank, First Republic, had lost 61% of its stock value by March 13.

Therefore, if malaise is on both sides of the pond, what can traders and investors do, other than pick up the pieces and try to continue their business.

As a result, the British market is resuming its pace, with the British Pound this morning trading at the high 1.22 range against the US Dollar, representing the highest point in over a month.

This is an interesting situation given that the FTSE 100 index lost over £76 billion in value due to the Credit Suisse debacle causing fear among investors and impacting bank stocks, many of which are listed on the London Stock Exchange and included in the FTSE 100 index.

It appears that the overall sentiment is to pick up the pieces and carry on, with an understanding that the banking trepidation is no better on the North American side of the Altantic, and as a result, it’s a good day for the British Pound.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 21st MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Morning Star Pattern Above $23935

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $23935 on 15th March, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar, touching a high of $28439 on 20th Mar.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a morning star pattern above the $23935 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 28180 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday low of 27378 in the European trading session today.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 year.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The RSI indicator is back over 50 in the 2-hourly time frame indicating bullish trends.

The relative strength index is at 63.77 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 28000 and 28500.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $23935.
• The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold market.
• The price is now trading above its pivot level of $27744
• The short-term range is strongly bullish.

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $23935


The price of Bitcoin is now moving in a strongly bullish momentum above the $27000 handle. After some retraction we can see fresh upsides in the ranges of $28000 to $28500.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA 100 in the 2-hourly time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the support of the triangle in the 1-hour time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

We have also detected the formation of a three white soldiers pattern in the 30-minute time frame indicating a bullish outlook.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $24152 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average, and at $25825 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 70%.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 27861 and Fibonacci resistance level of 28072 after which the path towards 28500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 0.88% by 246.91$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 38.608 billion. We can see a decrease of 18.76% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

We can see that bitcoin continues its bullish momentum and the prices continue to remain above the $27000 handle. We are now looking for fresh upsides in the range of $28000 and $29000.

The demand for bitcoin continues and we can say that now crypto winter has ended with the resumption of the long-term bullish trend in the BTCUSD.

The daily RSI is printing at 70.68 which indicates a strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $23935 towards the $28667 Levels.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $28496 which is a 1-month high and at $28796 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $29000 with a consolidation zone of $28500.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.