Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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US Currency Continues to Grow Ahead of GDP Data Release


Good data on core durable goods orders in the US for August and a general decrease in risk appetite in the market are helping to strengthen the US dollar. The American currency set new highs in such pairs as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF. Commodity currencies, along with precious metals, continue to decline.

USD/CHF

The latest meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) disappointed buyers of the Swiss franc. Contrary to analysts' forecasts, officials refused to raise the rate by 0.25%. The change in the vector of the SNB monetary policy contributed to a sharp strengthening of USD/CHF. In just a few days, the price rose by 300 points and strengthened above the alligator lines on the weekly timeframe. If the current situation does not change and the US dollar continues to strengthen, the pair may continue to rise towards the nearest important resistance range of 0.9400-0.9450. We can consider a cancellation of the upward scenario only after the pair moves below the psychological level of 0.9000.

Today's news on US GDP for the Q2 will be important for the pair's pricing. The publication of the indicator is scheduled for 15:30 GMT+3. Also, at the same time, weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released.



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US Government Shutdown: Assessing Economic Impact and Recession Risks


The recurring spectre of a government shutdown has once again loomed over the United States, prompting concerns about its potential economic consequences. The shutdown may occur this weekend unless lawmakers agree on spending levels and whether to give more aid to Ukraine. Economists and analysts are closely examining the situation, weighing the likelihood of a recession, and evaluating the resilience of the American economy in the face of this uncertainty.

The Longer the Shutdown, the Greater the Damage

A recurring theme has emerged from past government shutdowns: their duration directly correlates with the extent of economic damage.

A brief shutdown is unlikely to significantly impede economic growth or push the nation into a recession, as both Wall Street and the Biden administration economists contend. Historical evidence from previous government funding stoppages supports this assertion, revealing limited economic disruption during short-lived closures.

However, the narrative shifts when contemplating a protracted shutdown scenario. A sustained government shutdown has the potential to erode economic growth, potentially impacting President Biden's re-election prospects. This challenge would compound other economic headwinds anticipated in the final months of the year, including elevated interest rates, the resumption of federal student loan payments, and a possible extended United Automobile Workers strike.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.