EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: The Dollar Is Weakening Against the Euro and Pound
Recent economic data and comments from Federal Reserve representatives have dampened expectations of a rapid interest rate cut. More optimistic than expected consumer sentiment data added to the list of reliable economic data published this week, including retail sales and unemployment benefit claims. The positive indicators eased expectations that the Fed would begin lowering the key rate as early as March and provided confidence that the US economy is not immediately threatened by a recession. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, fell by 0.08% to 103.26, although it rose by 0.8% over the week.
The EUR/USD pair is showing a modest increase, developing a corrective impulse formed last week. The euro is testing the 1.0900 level for an upward breakout amid the absence of macroeconomic publications. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0909, and a breakthrough could trigger an increase to 1.0958. On the other hand, the nearest support is at 1.0844, and a break below could lead the pair to 1.0800.
Investors will focus on the monthly report from the German Bundesbank during the day, which may influence market expectations regarding the pace of possible ECB interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, on Wednesday, January business activity statistics in the services sector will be presented in the EU and the US. Predictions suggest that the Eurozone services sector index from S&P Global will strengthen from 48.8 to 49.0, while in the US, it will decrease from 51.4 to 51.0. On Thursday, a meeting of the European regulator will take place, and officials may provide comments that will affect the movement of the single currency quotes, although no changes in the direction of the agency's monetary policy are expected: the interest rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, and the deposit rate at 4.00%.
The price broke the upper boundary of the descending channel and may continue to rise.
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