Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Sterling Makes Modest Gains Following Cabinet Reshuffle by PM Rishi Sunak


In a move that echoed through financial markets, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak undertook a cabinet reshuffle on Monday, elevating former Prime Minister David Cameron to the position of foreign minister while simultaneously dismissing Interior Minister Suella Braverman.

The impact on the financial landscape was subtle, with analysts emphasising that short-term fluctuations in sterling would be steered more by economic indicators and the U.S. dollar's trajectory than immediate political developments in the UK.

As of the latest update, the British Pound exhibited a 0.2% increase, reaching $1.2248, and a similar uptick against the euro, standing at 87.28 pence.

While the reshuffle prompted a 0.6% rise in the FTSE 100 and a 3 basis points drop in the benchmark 10-year UK gilt yields, experts suggest that domestic political matters, including cabinet shifts, may not exert significant influence on global investors.

Investors are turning their attention to the upcoming release of the consumer price index (CPI) for October on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters anticipate a 4.8% year-on-year increase, a decrease from September's 6.7%. This shift is attributed to the slower ascent in the costs of essentials such as energy and food in recent months.

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The Dollar Falls amid Falling Inflation in the US


Corrective sentiment prevails in the market, as traders take profits on long positions against the backdrop of a rapid decline in the US dollar after the publication of October inflation statistics. Thus, the consumer price index in October showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis, while analysts expected an increase of 0.1%, and in the previous period the value was 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator slowed from 3.7% to 3.2%, which was below expectations at 3.3%, and core inflation adjusted from 0.3% to 0.2% and from 4.1% to 4. 0%, respectively. Published data confirmed investors' assumption that the US Federal Reserve will not increase borrowing costs either this year or next. At the same time, experts note that it is still somewhat premature to talk about the possible timing of the start of the interest rate reduction cycle. The approach of inflation to the target levels of the US Federal Reserve was regarded as another signal to the end of the cycle of tightening monetary policy. Real macroeconomic statistics are more important for the market than the hawkish statements of the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who last week reiterated the potential for higher borrowing costs.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding near the local highs of early September at 1.0872. The day before, the single currency showed its strongest growth in recent months, which was the market’s reaction to a significant slowdown in inflationary pressure in the United States.

The day before, the eurozone published statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, which remained at -0.1% in quarterly terms and 0.1% in annual terms. In addition, the region's employment rate rose marginally from 0.2% to 0.3% and 1.3% to 1.4%, respectively, and the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) Business Sentiment Index rose from -1.1 points to 9.8 points with a forecast of 5.0 points.

Based on the highs of last and this week, a new ascending channel has formed. Now the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue to decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024


Since the beginning of November, the price of Brent oil has decreased by more than 5%. This is due, among other things, to easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest news:
→ Reuters: Iran does not plan to fight with Israel on the side of Hamas;
→ the UN Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the conflict.

Data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States above expectations also contributed to the price decline. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4% to 439.4 million barrels from 421.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is the highest inventory level since August.

Technically, the price of Brent oil is in a downtrend (shown by red lines). Moreover:
→ on November 14, the Brent price tested the median line, which acted as resistance;
→ during this test, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed, which confirms the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ USD 81.81 may now serve as immediate resistance while another important level of USD 84.50 appears out of reach – at least in November.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Dollar Declines as Labour Market Cools


EUR/USD


The euro stabilised against the dollar on Thursday as optimism around the peak of policy tightening and possible rate cuts driven by easing inflation in major economies faded. During the week, inflation data from the US and UK fueled hopes that their central banks are done raising rates. The focus now turned to eurozone inflation on Friday. The euro was flat at USD 1.0853, up 2.5% for the month, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies from other major trading partners, was marginally higher. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, the immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0881, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0912. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0833, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0761.

The price has broken through the lower boundary of the ascending channel and may continue to decline.

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MSFT Analysis: New All-time High


Yesterday, Microsoft's share price exceeded USD 375 for the first time ever. This happened against the backdrop of news about the company’s activities, which was favorably received by investors:

→ Microsoft introduced its own Maia 100 chip for cloud computing and AI programs that create content. The company is also testing Maia 100 for Bing and Office.
→ The company also presented Cobalt — a server processor,
→ and more: new AI tools from the Copilot series. For example, Copilot for Azure is an AI assistant for clients of a cloud computing service that works in chat mode.

Expectations that the Fed will cut rates, which intensified following Tuesday's inflation news, is another factor contributing to the bullish sentiment in Microsoft shares.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bears Aggressively Defending 37,500 Level


The cryptocurrency market continues to be dominated by expectations for SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs. A decision is expected by January 10. Although expectations alone do not seem to be enough at the moment to overcome the resistance level of 37,500, which became obvious this week.

The BTC/USD chart today shows that the bulls attacked the level 4 times.

At the same time, attempts 1-2-3 indicate a gradual weakening of the impulse.

Attempt number 4 had new fuel, as the growth rate was impressive. Moreover, the bulls even managed to overcome the level of 37,500. However, as the chart shows, not for long. The bears successfully coped with the attack and not only prevented the price from consolidating above 37,500, but also pushed it back to the lines from which the attack began.

Moreover, attempt number 4 brought an update to the maximum of the year, but the form in which it was made raises concerns. Because short-term exceeding top 1 is a bull trap.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Dips Could Be Attractive


AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6540 zone. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might attempt a fresh increase from 0.5920.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6540 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 0.6480 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is also moving lower below the 0.5980 support zone.
• There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 0.5975 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6340 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6450 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6500 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6540 zone. A high is formed near 0.6542 and the pair is now correcting gains.

There was a move below the 0.6500 level. The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6357 swing low to the 0.6542 high. There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance at 0.6480.

On the downside, initial support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6357 swing low to the 0.6542 high at 0.6450.

The next support could be 0.6420. If there is a downside break below the 0.6420 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6400 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6340. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6480.

The first major resistance might be 0.6500. An upside break above the 0.6500 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6540 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6600 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Watch FXOpen's 13 - 17 November Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/GBP’s NEW HIGH, US INFLATION, S&P500 FORECAST, BRENT CRUDE

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• EUR/GBP: Price Reaches 6-month High #EURGBP
• Important News on US Inflation Rock Financial Markets #USInflation
• Morgan Stanley Analysts Raise Forecasts for S&P 500 #SP500
• Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024 #BrentCrude

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



FXOpen YouTube


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#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

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GBP/USD Regains Strength While USD/CAD Weakens


GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2370 zone. USD/CAD is declining and trading below the 1.3730 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2500 resistance.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2430 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it broke the 1.3840 resistance.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3730 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above the 1.2185 level. The British Pound started a decent increase above the 1.2250 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair gained strength above the 1.2300 level. The bulls even pushed the pair above the 1.2370 level and the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2120. The pair cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2505 swing high to the 1.2373 low.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2430. It is now trading above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2505 swing high to the 1.2373 low.

The RSI moved above the 65 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major hurdle at 1.2500. An upside break above the 1.2500 zone could send the pair toward 1.2550. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2620.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2430. The next major support is 1.2370.

If there is a break below 1.2370, the pair could extend the decline. The next key support is near the 1.2300 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2185 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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NIKKEI Analysis: High of 33 Years


The Japanese stock market index, made up of shares of 225 companies, is showing high volatility today, attempting to break through the September high. Reuters wrote that the index had reached its highest level since 1990. The record is due to low rates from the Bank of Japan, which are helping the country's export-oriented industry (in particular, the automobile industry) and financial sector to grow.

At the same time, in various financial markets, Nikkei-related instruments may not have recorded a maximum in 33 years — the reason is liquidity and what appears to be the top of the market:
→ there was a massive liquidation of short positions;
→ major market participants recorded profits.

Therefore, the daily candlestick on European Monday morning has a long upper shadow. Note that today's high could be a false breakout of the September top, which in turn is a false breakout of the August top.

The chart shows that the price of NIKKEI is forming a tapering wedge pattern (shown with blue lines) pointing upward. A bearish breakout of this pattern could lead to the development of a downtrend.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.