Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CAD Analysis: Canadian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Inflation News


On September 7, we wrote that the level of 1.365 could serve as resistance, from which the price will form a bearish reversal.

As the USD/CAD chart shows, the rate dropped from this resistance to the psychological level of 1.3500, which served as support.

Wherein:

→ The bullish trend (shown by the blue channel) is broken. Facing resistance at 1.365, the bulls failed to reach the upper boundary of the channel, which was a sign of weakening uptrend. One could also observe bearish divergences on a number of indicators.

→ The price at the beginning of the week is in a downward trend, which is shown by the red channel.



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[FXOpen Trader]

Euro vs Turkish Lira: A Tale of Turbulence and Opportunity


As the summer holiday season drew to a close approximately two weeks ago, tourists from across the globe bid farewell to Turkey, a nation known for its captivating landscapes, rich history, and hospitality.

For decades, Turkey has been a favoured destination for travellers from Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and Eurasia. Its vibrant tourist industry, catering to package tours and all-inclusive hotels, has consistently offered families and working individuals a few weeks of relaxation at an affordable price. However, beneath this veneer of holiday bliss, Turkey's economy has grappled with a persistent challenge – the devaluation of the Turkish Lira.

The Lira's Downward Spiral

Over the past six years, the Turkish Lira has been on a rocky path, depreciating significantly against major global currencies.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Us Dollar Weakens ahead of the Fed Meeting


EUR/USD

The euro rose against the US dollar on Friday, boosted by hopes that the ECB is ending its cycle of rate hikes and data suggesting China's faltering economy may be regaining some momentum. The ECB raised its key interest rate to a record 4% on Thursday and warned it would remain at that level until inflation above target is resolved. Data on Friday showed Chinese retail sales and industrial production figures for August beat economists' expectations, even as the housing market slump deepened. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0675, off a low of $1.0632, its weakest since March 20. Immediate resistance can be seen at $1.0710, a break higher could trigger a rise towards $1.0760. On the upside, immediate support is seen at 1.0637, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0592.

Based on last week's lows, a new downward channel has formed. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to rise.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 under Pressure ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting


The decision on the base interest rate will be published tomorrow at 21:00 GMT+3, and Powell will hold a press conference at 21:30. Although most experts, as reported by the media, expect that the current rate will remain, market participants will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's assessment of the current situation, which includes new data on inflation and the labour market. It is possible that there will be another rate increase before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 chart shows the market under pressure in mid-September, although the overall picture appears balanced.

The balance of supply and demand is indicated by the fact that the movement B→C is approximately 50% of the movement A→B. And the C→D movement is approximately 50% of the B→C movement. That is, fluctuations die out as buyers and sellers converge.

The price is still within the ascending channel (shown in blue), but it is possible that during tomorrow's news announcement from the Federal Reserve there will be an attempt by the bears to break through it.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Cryptocurrency Prices Rise on SEC Rumours


Various media outlets report the opinion that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed in a personal conversation. He allegedly intends to approve applications for the creation of ETFs related to the cryptocurrency spot markets. Such applications were submitted by BlackRock, Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie and other respectable funds. But for now, the SEC's decision on the applications has been delayed.

At the same time, it is reported that by giving the go-ahead to applications, Gary Gensler can thereby gain loyalty from the funds, and after the end of his period as head of the SEC, go to work for one of them.

Against the backdrop of the information mentioned, the crypto markets perked up — the prices of bitcoin, Ether and other assets rose by approximately 3% in a few hours. However, it is unlikely that such rumors can become a driver for creating a sustainable trend.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Yen and European Currencies Retreat from Previously Reached Lows


Last week, European currencies renewed their recent lows, while the yen and commodity currencies managed to remain in their old ranges. However, this week, everything can change dramatically since the fundamental data of the coming trading sessions is as saturated as possible. Data on the consumer price index in the Eurozone will be released today, and tomorrow, a similar index will be published in the UK. Also, central banks in the US and UK will announce their interest rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday.

USD/JPY

The dollar/yen currency pair is stuck between 146 and 148. After a sharp rise in early September, the price switched to sideways movement and, apparently, is accumulating strength for growth. If greenback buyers manage to gain a foothold above 147.80, the start of a new upward impulse towards last year's highs at 150.00-151.00 may occur. However, if we see a sharp pullback from the current levels or there is a false breakout at 148.00-150.00, a full-scale downward correction may happen.

The pair's pricing will depend almost entirely on tomorrow's Fed verdict (21:00 GMT+3). If a pause in the hawkish policy of the American regulator is announced, USD/JPY could instantly be at 144.00-145.00. If officials declare the need to further increase the rate, a test at 150 may occur.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Faces Hurdles While USD/JPY Eyes Breakout


EUR/USD started a fresh decline below 1.0715. USD/JPY is rising and might climb further if it clears the 148.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0715 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0715 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 147.20 and 147.50 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 147.70 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0760 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0715 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0680 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0632 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0764 swing high to the 1.0632 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.0715 and a key bearish trend line. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0764 swing high to the 1.0632 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.0760. The main resistance is now near 1.0780. An upside break above 1.0780 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0840.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0680. The next key support is at 1.0655. If there is a downside break below 1.0655, the pair could drop toward 1.0630. The next support is near 1.0600, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Falls amid News from the Fed


Yesterday was an important evening that had an impact on many financial markets. The Federal Reserve (as expected) kept the rate at the same level. According to Powell:

→ The full effect of tightening the monetary policy has yet to be felt.
→ [They] will continue to act cautiously, basing further decisions on incoming statistical data.
→ Inflation is much higher than the target.

Will the Fed tighten monetary policy further? Opinions are divided. JP Morgan analysts believe that the rate hike cycle is over. On the contrary, Vanguard analysts believe that rates will have to be raised again (and even more than once).

Perhaps the Fed's repeated rhetoric no longer looks like a sign of confidence? One way or another, the US stock market fell sharply, making the recession scenario more pressing.

On September 19, we wrote that the market was under bearish pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting. The graph shows that they managed to realize their advantage.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Will Stagflation Persist in the UK? EUR/GBP Volatility May Be an Indicator


In recent years, the United Kingdom has found itself mired in a sea of economic uncertainty, prompting widespread speculation about the dreaded 'R-word'—recession.

While the nation has navigated a prolonged cost-of-living crisis marked by noticeable spikes in everyday expenses, mortgage payments, and other essential outlays, it has managed to avert an official recession thus far. However, lurking in the shadows is a different concern: stagflation.

Defining Stagflation

Stagflation, a term often used to describe an economic quagmire characterised by high inflation, low economic growth, and soaring unemployment, has begun to creep into discussions surrounding the UK's economic health. The conflicting signals emanating from the British economic landscape are creating a puzzle that demands careful examination.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Central Bank Week Shakes Up Gold Market


Yesterday, the main event of the week took place — the Federal Reserve meeting, which had a noticeable impact on the market of assets denominated in US dollars. But besides the Fed meeting, there are a number of other events this week related to central banks:

→ today at 10:30, a meeting of the Swiss National Bank took place. The interest rate remained at 1.75%, although there was a significant possibility of its increase to 2%.
→ today at 14:00 GMT+3, a decision on the Bank of England interest rate is expected;
→ news from the Central Bank of Japan is planned for tomorrow morning — there may be surprises.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.