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  1. #51
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 4th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 4 – BOE Day!



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex firmed to 106.82 on Fed outlook and solid data before sliding to 106.38 at the close. Yields spiked on top of the heavy losses Tuesday (10yr 2.51%), then slipped again on strong factory orders data, with an eye on Friday’s NFP which will partly determine the magnitude of Fed tightening (10yr 2.7191%). US Stocks supported by good earnings news, and gains accelerated after solid data, shrugging off the jump in bond yields as the Fed funds futures market repriced for a 50-50 potential for a 75 bp September rate hike. European FUTS also higher. Oil dipped to $90.35 after OPEC+ disappointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest output increase in its history. Gold holds at $1770. Today – BOE expected to hike by 50 bp but stresses data dependency of further tightening moves.


    Overnight: US ISM-NMI services index rise to 56.7 from a 2-year low, US factory orders beat estimates climbed 2.0%. The rise joins big declines for the ISM, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed and Philly Fed, but gains for the Richmond Fed and Empire State, to leave an 8-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust November peaks. Surging interest rates and a flattening in real household spending as prices rise are aggravating the downtrend, though sentiment also faces support as businesses continue to restock.


    * USDIndex is holding above 106 at currently 106.30.
    * Equities – USA30 rose 1.29% (32.74K), USA500 rallied to 1.59% (4.15K) and USA100 surged 2.59%.
    * Yields 10-year lifted 2.5 bp to 2.73% and rates are also higher in Japan and Australia. The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.863% though after another contraction in German manufacturing orders flagged recession risks for the region.
    * Oil – dips to at $90.35. OPEC+ dissapointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest ouput increase in its history.
    * Gold – supprted by pullback in yields at $1770.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD dip to looks weak at 1.0163 and Cable is at 1.2147. USDJPY has lifted to 134.20 as recent haven flows into the yen recede. AUD and NZD regained some ground as global risk sentiment improved a little and a record Australian trade surplus underlined the natural inflows supporting the currency.


    Today – The BoE expected to hike by 50 bp but with a stress on the data dependency of further tightening moves. Front loading the tightening cycle also may also make sense in light of the leadership contest, with Liz Truss, the favorite to succeed Johnson mulling a shake up of the BoE. Investors are also waiting for details on the BoE’s plans for gilt sales. Governor Bailey previously indicated that the balance sheet will shrink at a pace of GBP 50-100 bln in the first year – including redemptions.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.99%) reverted week’s losses and currently at 84.47. MAs aligned higher, MACD lines rising, RSI 76. H1 ATR 0.202, Daily ATR 0.993.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #52
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 8th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 8 – USD holds post NFP bid.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex held onto NFP inspired bid trades at 106.40, from 106.80. NFP big beat across the board; headline more than double expectations at 528K, June revised 26K higher, Unemployment fell (3.5%) and Earnings rose (5.2%) = pressure back on Fed for 75bp hike in Sept. Recession – what Recession? US Stocks slipped led by tech. TSLA –6.6% (3-1 stock split 25/8), TWTR +3.56%, META –2.00%, LYFT +16.8% ($1bn profit expected 2024), AMZN -1.2% (to buy iRobot $1.7bn) Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.02%, Nikkei +0.29%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields rallied (10yr 2.8287%) Oil under $90, Gold under $1770 and BTC moved up to $23.5k.


    Berkshire Hathaway posted $43.8 bn loss on stock market declines. MUSK wants TWTR deal to go ahead if they can prove the % of real accounts, wants public debate with TWTR CEO. FED’s Bowman expects “more 75bp hikes”. CFTC Net Longs in USD reduced last week. Chinese exports hit record 5- mth high Trade balance back over $101 bn. Biden gets his $430bn Climate, Healthcare & Tax Bill through the Senate, China continues exercises around Taiwan for 5th day.


    Week Ahead: Highlight will be US CPI on Wednesday which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.


    * USDIndex rallied to 106.80 post NFP holds at 106.45 now. YEN underperformed in Asian session.
    * Equities – USA500 closed lower -6.75 pts (+-0.16%) (4145), US500FUTS at 4150 now. 4175 key resistance remains. S&P500 gained +0.4% for the week, NASDAQ +2.2%.
    * Yields 10-year yield rallied into close. The 2/10yr. yield curve is now 40bp inverted. 30yr back over 3.00%.
    * Oil – declined to $86.96 Friday back to $89.60 now and remains under $90.00.
    * Gold – topped at $1794 (50 day MA) in early Friday trades before tanking to under $1770. Trades at $1775 now, 20-day MA $1757.
    * Bitcoin dipped to $22.7K Friday, before strong weekend rally, trades at $23.7k now.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD down to 1.0177, USDJPY rallied 1.57% on Friday – trades at 135.50 now. Cable tested to important 1.2000 zone on Friday – recovered to 1.2080 now.


    Overnight – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.


    Today – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%). Bounced from 92.50 support on Friday to test key resistance and 7-day high today at 94.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive and signal line rising, RSI 69.44 rising & testing OB, H1 ATR 0.192, Daily ATR 1.218.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #53
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 9th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 9 – USD & Stocks Dip.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex slipped to test 106.00, before recovering to 106.20. US Stocks opened positively but closed flat for the day. NVDA –6.3%, Novavax -5.01%, AMC +8.03%, GM +4.16%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng flat, Nikkei -0.88%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields fell into close (10yr 2.7657%), Oil bounces close to 2% to recoup the $90 handle, Gold rallied over 1% from $1770 support and BTC moved up to test key $24K area.


    China continues exercises around Taiwan for 6th day, Russia installs more troops around captured key Ukrainian nuclear power plant, as US promises Ukraine another $1 billion in military aid.


    Week Ahead: Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.


    * USDIndex tested down to 106.00 after blockbuster NFP on Friday and holds 106.20 now. AUD & NZD underperformed in Asian session.
    * Equities – USA500 closed flat -5.13pts (-0.12%) (4140), tested & rejected 4175 resistance intraday. US500FUTS at 4144 now. 100 MA at 4100.
    * Yields 10-year yield fell into close as Treasuries eased with USD. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 44bp inverted yesterday. 10yr closed 2.765%, trades at 2.76% now.
    * Oil – rallied from 6-month lows under $87.00 again to test last weeks support at $90.70, holds at $90.00.
    * Gold – rallied from $1770, support to $1788 highs now. 20-day MA $1757.
    * Bitcoin surged to $24.2K Monday, before trading at $23.7k now.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD back over 1.02000, USDJPY rejected 135.50 Monday back to 135.00 now. Cable tested up to 1.2130 back to 1.2080 support now.


    Overnight - Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.


    Today – EIA STEO, Supply from UK, Germany & US.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.36%). Bounced from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but signal line rising, RSI 53.62 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.0134.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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