HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

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Position Trading Strategy

Position trading is a long-term trading strategy used in financial markets, including Forex, where traders aim to capture significant price movements over an extended period. Unlike day trading or swing trading, which involves holding positions for shorter time frames, position trading may span weeks, months, or even years. This strategy is well-suited for traders who prefer a more hands-off approach and can tolerate wider price swings.
Key Aspects of Position Trading:

1. Time Frame: Position traders use long-term charts, such as daily, weekly, or even monthly, to analyze the market and identify potential trading opportunities. They focus on capturing the primary trends within a currency pair.
2. Fundamental Analysis: Fundamental analysis plays a significant role in position trading. Traders assess macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, interest rates, and other economic indicators to form their long-term market views. They often take into account central bank policies and global economic trends.
3. Trend Identification: Position traders aim to identify and follow major trends. They believe that fundamental factors drive long-term trends, and they seek to align their positions with these trends. Common tools for trend analysis include moving averages, trendlines, and support/resistance levels.
4. Entry and Exit Points: Position traders typically enter positions during periods of market consolidation or after significant pullbacks. They look for levels where they believe the price is undervalued and has the potential to move in the desired direction. Stop-loss and take-profit orders are set to manage risk and secure profits.
5. Risk Management: Position traders focus on preserving capital by managing risk effectively. They often use a fixed percentage of their trading capital as their risk per trade and diversify their portfolio to reduce exposure to a single currency pair.
6. Patience: Patience is a key virtue in position trading. Traders must be prepared to hold positions for extended periods and withstand market fluctuations. They don't get discouraged by short-term price movements.
7. Monitoring: While position traders do not need to monitor the markets constantly, periodic check-ins are necessary to assess whether the fundamental factors that drove their initial analysis remain valid. Adjustments to the position may be made accordingly.
8. Psychological Discipline: Emotional discipline is crucial in position trading, as it involves holding positions through market volatility and pullbacks. Traders must adhere to their trading plan and not be swayed by short-term market noise.

Position trading requires a long-term perspective and a fundamental understanding of the markets. It's suitable for traders who are not interested in frequent trading and can commit to a more patient approach. Success in position trading depends on thorough research, risk management, and the ability to ride out long-term market trends.

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[COLOR=var(--text-primary)][COLOR=var(--tw-prose-body)][COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Position Trading Strategy[/COLOR]
Position trading is a long-term trading strategy used in financial markets, including Forex, where traders aim to capture significant price movements over an extended period. Unlike day trading or swing trading, which involves holding positions for shorter time frames, position trading may span weeks, months, or even years. This strategy is well-suited for traders who prefer a more hands-off approach and can tolerate wider price swings.
[COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Key Aspects of Position Trading:[/COLOR]

1. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Time Frame[/COLOR]: Position traders use long-term charts, such as daily, weekly, or even monthly, to analyze the market and identify potential trading opportunities. They focus on capturing the primary trends within a currency pair.
   
2. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Fundamental Analysis[/COLOR]: Fundamental analysis plays a significant role in position trading. Traders assess macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, interest rates, and other economic indicators to form their long-term market views. They often take into account central bank policies and global economic trends.
   
3. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Trend Identification[/COLOR]: Position traders aim to identify and follow major trends. They believe that fundamental factors drive long-term trends, and they seek to align their positions with these trends. Common tools for trend analysis include moving averages, trendlines, and support/resistance levels.
   
4. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Entry and Exit Points[/COLOR]: Position traders typically enter positions during periods of market consolidation or after significant pullbacks. They look for levels where they believe the price is undervalued and has the potential to move in the desired direction. Stop-loss and take-profit orders are set to manage risk and secure profits.
   
5. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Risk Management[/COLOR]: Position traders focus on preserving capital by managing risk effectively. They often use a fixed percentage of their trading capital as their risk per trade and diversify their portfolio to reduce exposure to a single currency pair.
   
6. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Patience[/COLOR]: Patience is a key virtue in position trading. Traders must be prepared to hold positions for extended periods and withstand market fluctuations. They don't get discouraged by short-term price movements.
   
7. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Monitoring[/COLOR]: While position traders do not need to monitor the markets constantly, periodic check-ins are necessary to assess whether the fundamental factors that drove their initial analysis remain valid. Adjustments to the position may be made accordingly.
   
8. [COLOR=var(--tw-prose-bold)]Psychological Discipline[/COLOR]: Emotional discipline is crucial in position trading, as it involves holding positions through market volatility and pullbacks. Traders must adhere to their trading plan and not be swayed by short-term market noise.

Position trading requires a long-term perspective and a fundamental understanding of the markets. It's suitable for traders who are not interested in frequent trading and can commit to a more patient approach. Success in position trading depends on thorough research, risk management, and the ability to ride out long-term market trends.
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[HFblogNews]

Date: 8th September 2023.


Market Update – September 8 – Japanese & EU GDP miss, CNH breaks 2023 lows.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia-Pacific markets were lower on Friday as Japan released revised second quarter gross domestic product figures (+1.2% vs +1.3% expected, down from 1.5%) and Hong Kong cancelled the morning trading session due to a storm warning. Overnight the US100 fell for a 4th session, weighed by Apple after a report that China is allegedly banning government workers from using iPhones; NVDA, AMD, Qualcomm slipped as well. US30 managed to edge up 0.17% as defensive sectors outperformed (Utilities the best one). Initial Jobless claims fell to 216k last week, below estimates and hinting to a still tight job market after last week’s streak of data. Unit labor costs rose 2.2% (1.9%). A ”positive” note came from Walmart that announced it is lowering its workers entry pay. EU GDP and employment change in Q2 disappointed yesterday and EU stocks are down for the 7th day in a row. German CPI/HICP is just out, in line (CPI +6.1% y/y).


This morning a poll of 69 economists interviewed by Bloomberg showed that the majority of them (39) are seeing an ECB pause in September, with some odds (33) of a new hike by the end of the year. Finally, USDCNH is trading at 7.3528 and has broken 2023 highs the day after CNY did so, showing the Chinese authorities are giving up protecting the 7.30 barrier.





*FX – USDIndex -0.20% at 104.82 retreated back below 105, EURUSD sits in the low 1.07s, Cable lingers below 1.25 and USDJPY trades on a 147 handle (147.15).
*Stocks – EU Futures +0.3% (both GER40 and FRA40), US30 +0.14%, US100 +0.31%, AAPL – 2.92%, AMD -2.46%, Qualcomm – 7.22%.
*Commodities – USOil -0.36% at $86.43, UKOil loses $90, $89.59 now. Strikes began at Australian Chevron LNG plants.
*Gold – +0.38% at $1926.80, XAG +0.82% at $23.15, Palladium +1.15% at $1228 is trying to rebound from 2023 lows.


LATER TODAY: Canadian Unemployment Rate, Fed’s Bostic & Barr.





INTERESTING MOVER: Apple -2.92% at $177.56 is down -6.54% in 2 sessions on heavy volumes after US-China tech-related tensions arose again. It managed to recover the $176 level after opening at 175.18 and hitting a low at $173.54. The MACD is neutral and RSI slightly below 50. Price is between the MM50 ($186.50) and MM200 ($164).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 11th September 2023.


Market Update – September 11 – BOJ & PBOC Caused Turmoil.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


G20 wraps up, while in Asia central banks have shaken the markets this morning. Verbal intervention from Japan and China helped to bolster Yuan and Yen and saw the DXY dollar index correcting to 104.637, from a close of 105.09 on Friday. Treasuries fell slightly across tenors Monday as traders await US inflation due later this week. Stock markets had a mixed start to the week, while bonds corrected, as most equity indexes found buyers. This turned USDJPY around, with Yen rallies with Yields after BOJ Ueda comments on negative rates fuelled rate hike speculations. USDCNH collapsed just before hitting last year’s highs – Yuan off 16-year lows after PBoC sets strong reference rate and threatens to punish market disruption.





*FX – USDIndex correcting to 104.45, from a close of 105.09 on Friday, EURUSD turned higher to 1.0730 from 1.0683 lows last week, GBPUSD broke 20-day SMA and still holds above it at 1.2526. Against the weaker US Dollar, the Aussie and the Kiwi were among the biggest beneficiaries, each rising close to 1% to hit roughly one-week highs.
*Stocks – JPN225 correcting -0.4% and the Hang Seng losing more than 1%, the latter in catch up trade, after markets were closed on Friday due to adverse weather conditions. The CSI 300 managed to lift 0.7%, the ASX 0.5%, and futures are higher in Europe and the US.
*Commodities – USOil dips shortlived after technical rally, however it remains above the key $84 level, extending gains above 11-month resistance. Currently settled at $86.56. Gold retests $1930 once again.


TODAY: The European Commission is to release its summer interim economic forecast. The central bank’s chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Kent Invicta Chamber of Commerce.





Key Movers: USDJPY drifted (-1.18%) after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that there may be sufficient information by year-end to judge if wages will continue to rise, which is a key factor in deciding whether to pare back its super-easy policy.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 12 September 2023.


Market Update – September 12 – Greenback rebounds ahead of US Inflation.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Wall Street closed slightly higher amid strength in big tech. Tesla climbed 10% after Morgan Stanley boosted its outlook on the stock based on expectations on the impacts of the “Dojo” computer. Treasuries posted small losses amid a lack of buyers. Bloomberg suggested it was the smallest range on the 10-year in over 2 years. The 10-year was up 2.5 bps to 4.295%. It was generally contained by the 4.30% level as well as the 4.34% cycle peak from August 21, the highest since late 2007. Today, European futures are higher, US futures slightly lower, as markets wait for US inflation numbers.





This morning: UK wage growth higher than expected – a bit of a negative surprise for the BoE. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged, jobless claims nudged up 0.9K in the more up to date August report and the July reading was revised down. Mixed signals for the BoE about the overall situation in the labour market, but it seems payroll growth is slowing, which ties in with survey data from the PMI reports. Despite this, wage growth remains uncomfortably higher and the data would back at least one more rate hike from the BoE this month. BoE’s Mann warns against early end to tightening cycle.


*FX – USDIndex lost a little ground, albeit after 8 straight weeks of gains, currently at its lows at 104.63 from 104.37. EURUSD drifted to 1.0725 from 1.0768 and GBPUSD higher after the data at 1.2529. USDJPY higher at 146.85 but Yen holds yesterday’s gains.
*Stocks – The US100 rallied 1.14% on the back of a surge in big tech. The US500 was 0.67% and the US30 was 0.25% firmer. JPN225 also jumped nearly 1%, but elsewhere across Asia the move higher was muted and China bourses traded narrowly mixed, with the CSI 300 down -0.1% and the Hang Seng rising a mere 0.1%. European futures are higher.
*Disney and Charter gained. Both stocks climbed after reports of a deal to restore channels including ESPN and ABC to the cable operator’s subscribers. Warner Bros. Discovery also rose.
*Nvidia fell. The chipmaker edged lower, extending a rocky September. Advanced Micro Devices also declined. J.M. Smucker shares fell after the snack giant agreed to buy Twinkies owner Hostess.
*Commodities – USOil higher as attention shifts to outlooks from OPEC & US.
*Bitcoin rose after dropping to the lowest since June on Monday


TODAY: The Apple product event, German ZEW Economic Sentiment. OPEC and US EIA will both publish monthly market reports later.





Key Movers: BTCUSD rallied by +2.77% today.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 13th September 2023.


Market Update – September 13 – Stocks retreat as markets wait for CPI.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Wall Street succumbed to further profit taking as concerns over tech weighed. This morning, stock markets headed south across Asia, as markets wait for the key US CPI numbers due to be released today. The USDindex tumbled into the close with the index sliding to 104.573 from the day’s high of 104.918 after a Reuters report said the ECB saw inflation holding over 3% in 2024. European and US futures are in the red and yields are moving higher with Eurozone markets underperforming after the Reuters source story.





Today so far: UK GDP contracted -0.5% m/m in July, more than expected and wiping out the 0.5% gain in the previous month. The three month trend rate remained steady at 0.2%. Industrial production contracted -0.7% m/m, services fell -0.5% m/m and construction output declined -0.5% m/m. The visible trade deficit narrowed somewhat, but that will also be due to lower energy prices. Wet weather and strikes are partly to blame, but the numbers also tie in with weaker survey numbers and a wider weakness in activity, with the UK economy set to move essentially sideways over the next quarter, after what was a quicker bounce back from the pandemic than initially reported. For the BoE that means further hikes after the likely move this month seem increasingly less likely.


*FX – USDIndex at 104.742, up from a session low of 104.515. EURUSD dipped to 1.0730 from 1.0764 and GBPUSD retested its 1.2440 low. USDJPY higher at 147.30.
*Stocks – The US100 led the declines with a -1.04% drop, while the US500 fell -0.57% and the US30 slipped -0.04%. A lot of the weakness stemmed from Apple and Oracle with the former hit by more fallout from China’s restrictions on iPhones, while the latter suffered from a poor earnings report. Apple’s iPhone 15 launch did not provide much support.
*Commodities – Oil prices have remained supported ahead of the CPI report and on forecasts by OPEC and the US that output cuts will tighten the market in the months ahead. USOIL is at $88.50.
*Gold has corrected to $1908 as the USDIndex has nudged up from early lows and is starting to eye the 105 mark again, which is keeping a lid on the precious metal, although gold is still up more than 12.5% over the year.





Key Movers: AUDUSD (H1 chart) in a 3-day downchannel with key Resistance intraday at 0.6410 and 0.6420.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 14th September 2023.


Market Update – September 14 – A hotly contested day ahead!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


CPI was a little hotter than expected, but not enough to alter expectations that the FOMC will skip hiking rates at its meeting next Wednesday. And the report did not change views that the door is open for a tightening in November, but it still not any more than a 50-50 bet. Treasuries went into the CPI data priced for upside risks and Yields spiked on the 0.6% jump in headline and the 0.3% gain in the core, which resulted in respective y/y rates of 3.7% and 4.3%. However, yields quickly dropped back and closed richer on the session amid short covering. Today, Asian stocks inched higher as investors shrugged off stronger than expected US inflation figures and anticipate the ECB decision.





The ECB meeting takes place today with reports that the updated staff projections will push the 2023 inflation forecast above 3% having boosted bets of another 25 bp hike. A hawkish pause would not be a surprise, but we think there is a slightly higher chance that the ECB will move again this week, especially considering the likely upward revision to the inflation forecast and the most recent rise in energy prices.


*FX – USDIndex is at 104.60. EURUSD mixed but lower in EU session at 1.0733 from 1.0754 and USDJPY holds above 147.00 floor, eyeing 148.
*Stocks – The JPN225 surged 1.4% to 33,168.10, US500 edged up to 4534, US100 jumped to August ceiling and the US30 failed to extend above 35k, as Stocks and bonds were supported ahead of ECB and US data.
Stocks of airlines were some of the biggest losers in the US500 after a couple warned of the hit to profits they’re taking because of higher costs. United Airlines sank by 3.8% and 2.8% for Delta Air Lines. On the flipside, Amazon climbed 2.6%, Microsoft gained 1.3%, and Nvidia rose 1.4%. Moderna rallied 3.2% after it reported encouraging results from a flu vaccine trial.
*Commodities – Oil well supported as markets focused on the prospect of sustained supply tightness this year. USOIL is at $88.60, recovering from $87.60 lows.


Today: ECB rate decision & Press Conference, US Retail Sales and PPI.





Key Movers: XAGUSD (-1.18%) broke 5-day range, extending the September’s downleg, with attention turning to 22 and 21 Support level.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 16th September 2023.


Events to Look Out For Next Week.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Next week will be one marked by multiple decisions by the world’s major Central Banks, the Fed in the first place. PMI data will then give colour to the expected strength of the economy in the coming months, while we will continue to keep our eyes firmly on prices, after the impromptu rise we saw in the US, for example.


Tuesday – 19 September 2023


->Harmonized / Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Next week will be one marked by multiple decisions by the world’s major Central Banks, the Fed in the first place. PMI data will then give colour to the expected strength of the economy in the coming months, while we will continue to keep our eyes firmly on prices, after the impromptu rise we saw in the US, for example.
->Canadian CPI (CAD, GMT 12.30) – Inflation in Canada is at similar levels to the US, even lower: 3.2% and 3.3% in July on the headline and core components respectively. But the former has risen again in the latest report, and consistently from +2.8% in June: will it follow in its neighbour’s footsteps and mark a second consecutive rise? Expectations are for a +3.8% rise in the headline component.


Wednesday – 20 September 2023


->PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNH, GMT 01:15) – China’s central bank has been very active this year in trying to stimulate the economy with various instruments and has already tweaked various interest rates and margins requirements from banks several times: in August the key one-year loan prime rate was lowered from 3.55% to 3.45% where it now stands. It remains to be seen whether the bank will take a break after the latest vaguely positive data.
->UK CPI, PPI, Retail Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) –Prices in the UK continue to grow at the highest levels among advanced economies: in July y/y CPI was +6.8%, Core CPI +6.9%, Retail Prices +9%. The economy seems to be languishing in stagflation but this is not what policy makers would like to see, as they expect to see numbers close to 5% by the end of the year. Expectations are for a rise of the headline component to +7.1% and a slowdown in the core one, to +6.8%, while RPI is forecasted at +9.3% y/y.
->FED Interest Rated Decision and FOMC Press Conference (USD, from GMT 10:00) -Little drama is expected out of next week’s FOMC. The official rate is in the 5.25% – 5.50% range and the market continues to price in very little risk for a hike next week. Chances for a 25 bp rate hike in November are still on the cards amid sticky core inflation and a still tight labor market. Very important will be subsequent comments from the ever-balanced Jerome Powell, who will perhaps explain the bank’s view on prices that have been rising again over the past two months while growth and jobs seem to be holding strong.


Thursday – 21 September 2023


->SNB Interest Rated Decision and Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF, GMT 07:30) –Earlier this month, economists at Credit Suisse/UBS were saying the SNB could raise the current 1.75% level even in the event that the neighboring ECB paused, citing the usual price fight but also the interest rate differential with the eurozone. Instead, Madame Lagarde raised and even though Inflation is actually below 2%, the Swiss bank’s projections suggest caution and that a 25 bps hike could be in the cards.
->BOE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Summary (GBP, GMT 11:00) –SONIA futures data seem to take it for granted that the BOE will raise at this meeting from the current 5.25% to 5.50%: but most important will be to understand the internal divisions and alternatives on the bench for the bank that is perhaps facing the most difficult situation, with a stagnant economy and prices running hot. Economists polled by Reuters think 2 members will vote for keeping the rate unchanged, up from just 1 at the last meeting.
->US Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 12:30, 14:00) –The US labor market has shown that it is still very tight despite some slowdown that was most noticeable in the ADP data and the pickup in the unemployment rate (+3.8% in August from +3.5%), actually due to a rise in the Labor Force Participation Rate. This week, it is expected that Initial Claims will rise by just 5k to +225k. While mortgage demand has sunk to a 28-year low given the high rates, existing home sales are also suffering (+4070k in July down from +4160k in June) in contrast to new home sales, which continue to climb (+714k). Two more data points to see how strong the US locomotive is. Expectations are for 4100k Existing Home Sales.


Friday – 22 September 2023


->BOJ Interest Rated Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (JPY , GMT early morning time, not disclosed) –Yen weakness, a still negative official rate (-0.1%), recent changes to the YCC on the 10-year, Ueda statements, prices and wages that finally seem to be rising consistently toward the bank’s target bring into question whether or not the process of monetary policy normalization from an ultra loose stance has really begun. With the USDJPY in the 148 area, an event definitely not to be missed. No changes are expected for the Official Interest Rate.
->French, German, European HCOB PMIs, UK S&P/CIPS PMIs (EUR, GBP, starting GMT 07:15) – Yen weakness, a still negative official rate (-0.1%), recent changes to the YCC on the 10-year, Ueda statements, prices and wages that finally seem to be rising consistently toward the bank’s target bring into question whether or not the process of monetary policy normalization from an ultra loose stance has really begun. With the USDJPY in the 148 area, an event definitely not to be missed. No changes are expected for the Official Interest Rate.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 18th September 2023.


Market Update – September 18 – Central Banks Week kicks off.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


A week that will be marked by meetings and decisions of practically all the world’s most important central banks is off to a slow start, with US futures fractionally up (+0.08% / +0.15%) after Friday’s drubbing. It was a decisive day for the weekly trend, sending both the US500 and US100 into negative territory for the second time in a row: only the US30 managed to close the week at +0.1%. The tech sector was the hardest hit, -2.2%, led by the Oracle debacle, -10%. On the other front, Utilities outperformed, +2.8%. This was on Friday, when the Nasdaq sank -1.75% and the US500 posted -1.22%: two factors contributed to this bad performance. First, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came out at 67.7, below expectations and well below its historical average, which is close to 86. This Index accounts for 2/3 of the US economy and is therefore a valuable indicator of the overall state of affairs there. The other major event that certainly helped the declines to be heavy was the UAW strike, for the first time simultaneously at the Ford, GM and Stellantis plants: the demands are for wage increases of up to 40% and the impact of such news on the perception of future inflation can be worrying. Today is poor in data, but from tonight Central Banks Week kicks off with the minutes of the latest RBA meeting and from Wednesday night onwards all the big central banks will cascade. The FED decision will be made on Wednesday evening.


Since the 3rd week of August, Antipodeans + CNH have relatively outperformed



*FX – USDIndex -0.12% at 104.86; Antipodeans are relatively stronger with AUDUSD +0.23% and NZDUSD +0.31%, this comes also on the back of USDCNH <7.30 (7.28 now). GBPUSD sits at 1.24, EURUSD +0.13% at 1.0673.
*Stocks – US Futures fractionally higher (US500 + 0.15%, US100 +0.22%, US30 +0.12%); GER40 futures are turning negative right now (-0.03% at 15869), CAC is -0.05%. Last Friday, META and NVDA sunk >-3%, Microsoft -2.50%.
*Commodities – USOil is trading close to 10-month high at $91.60, UKOil puts $95 in sight.
*GOLD – +0.32% at $1929, XAG +0.73% at $23.20.


Today: highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index, Bundesbank Monthly Report, remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, ECB de Guindos & Panetta.





Key Movers: XAUUSD (+0.22% @ $1928.09) is in a very tight range between its 50d and 200d MAs and close to the upper bound of a descending channel.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 19th September 2023.


Market Update – September 19 – Slow markets before 5 Major Central Banks decisions.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


US Stocks barely budged yesterday, with all indices ending the session with tiny gains; volumes were muted too. On the other side of the ocean, we witnessed substantial losses among European indices, probably also weighed down by the ECB’s decision last week. The worst of all was the FRA40 after one of the largest domestic investment banks, Societe Generale, pledged to cut costs and tumbled 12.05%. It is not the first major investment bank to make similar pronouncements lately, with Goldman and Morgan Stanley planning to adjust their workforce next.


Back to America, strikes are hitting the economy with 4.1 million labor hours lost in August, the most in 23 years: perhaps another reason why the indices’ rally has come to a standstill with the Nasdaq – for instance – remaining at the level of three months ago. To be fair, yesterday the good performance of Apple and Meta helped it to gain +0.15%. Technology was the best sector for the day, along with Energy: however, it is striking to see how the latter has been the star performer in recent months – led by the oil rally – with the ETF tracking the sector (XLE) up 14.92% in three months versus a paltry +1% for the US500.





The RBA minutes this morning held few surprises and the AUD, like the USD, is little moved. Rates continue to push slowly upwards and the 2-year is close to its March high of 5.066%. The market believes that the Fed will not move tomorrow – 99% odds – but the Dot Plot predicts another hike this year: GS is convinced that this is just a ”bluff”. We shall see.


*FX – USDIndex flat at 104.86; AUDUSD -0.04% @ 0.6433, GBPUSD < 1.24 (1.2377, EURUSD -0.12% @ 1.0679. USDJPY just shy of 148 and USDCNH back at 7.30.
*Stocks – US Futures are inching lower (US500 -0.12%, US100 -0.25%, US30 -0.09%); EU futures are adding to yesterday’s losses. AAPL +1.69%, Square’s and Lonza’s CEOs to depart the companies (latter one -14%), second interesting IPO in a couple of days with Instacart valued $10B, 75% less than the previous Private VC valuation.
*Commodities – USOil +0.08% at $92.27, UKOil hit $95, now trading at $94.69, Wheat, Corn close to 2023 lows.
*GOLD – -0.13% @ $1931.


Today: Highlights include European HICP, Core HICP, US Housing Starts, Canadian CPI.





Key Movers: FRA40 -1.39% @7276 after testing the top of the channel with a perfect spinning top on high volumes, fell hard yesterday led by the slump of one of the largest French banks (SocGen -12%).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.