HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 20th September 2023.


Market Update – September 20 – FED will stay on hold; Dot Plot, SEP are key.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


In a day that will be centred around the Fed’s deliberations this evening, and above all the quarterly economic projections, the new dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference, we start with China where the PBoC just now left its benchmark rates unchanged, with the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. The Central Bank touted the strength of the national economy and said it has ample policy room as analysts bet on future rate cuts. Still in Asia, the Japanese trade balance fell 66.7% in August, coming in at 930.5 billion yen compared with the 2.79 trillion yen deficit a year ago: a smaller-than-expected but still 17.8% drop in imports contributed to this improvement. Yesterday saw the USD suffer badly up to the US open, with the USDIndex at -0.4% at one point and particularly weak against currencies such as the CAD, before recovering most of its losses and closing flat: the EURUSD was back below 1.07 as was the Cable below 1.24. US yields returned to new highs across the curve, on the 2, 5 and 10 year, the latter two being the highest levels since 2007. Stocks and indices closed in the red, led by the US30.


Another extremely interesting movement was that of oil, which saw Brent crude come within a hair’s breadth of $96 and Crude above $92, at very strong resistance levels tested several times last year, before falling back profusely: at the moment, the US blend is trading at $90.35.


FED’s current Dot Plot, representing Members’ rates forecasts



Tonight is the Fed meeting and there is a 99% probability that the official rate will remain in the 5.25%-5.50% range. But September is also the meeting where the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be renewed and the new Dot Plot will be released: these will be key points to understand what will happen next. On the other hand, it is possible that Powell will do everything he can during the conference to reiterate to the markets that they should not think they know what he and the other board members will do in the coming months.


*FX – USDIndex flat at 104.82; EURUSD +0.05% @ 1.0685, GBPUSD -0.30% @ 1.2355, USDCAD +0.06% @ 1.3456, USDJPY flat @ 147.88, USDCNH 7.308.
*Stocks – US Futures are lower to flat (US500 -0.04%, US100 -0.10%, US30 +0.01%); GER40 is +0.10%, FRA40 -0.09%. EV maker TIO tumbled -12%.
*Commodities – USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, UKOil is trading at $93.44 after getting close to hitting $96 last night.
*GOLD – flat @ $1931.


Today: Highlights include UK CPI, PPI, Retail PI (JUST OUT, much better than expected), German PPI, US Mortgage applications, EIA Weekly Oil Stocks Change, FED INTEREST RATE DECISION, FOMC ECONOMIC PROJECTION & PRESS CONFERENCE.





Interesting Mover: USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, perfectly pulled back after reaching a key resistance level at the $92.20 area, drew a spinning top and is dumping overbought levels on the RSI.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 21st September 2023.


Market Update – September 21 – Stocks fade, USD up as CBs spring on.



It was Fed Day and it did not disappoint. As universally expected, the result of the FOMC was a “hawkish hold.”


But we and the markets got a little more than bargained for as Chair Powell and the FOMC revealed an even more restrictive policy stance than anticipated, and clearly signaled a higher for longer stance. The markets got the message loud and clear. Stocks and bond markets are under pressure, after the Fed decision hit risk appetite. The FOMC kept rates on hold yesterday, but signalled that another hike is in the cards later in the year.





Switzerland’s SNB surprised by keeping rates on hold. Expectations had been for another 25 bp hike, but after the recent drop in inflation, the SNB decided to keep policy settings unchanged. The statement stressed that “the significant tightening of monetary policy over recent quarters is countering remaining inflation pressure”, although it left the door open to another hike by saying that “it cannot be ruled out that further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary”. The central bank’s new forecasts put inflation at 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, before a drop to 1.9% in 2025.


*FX – USDIndex has lifted to 105.35 on the Fed outlook and also support from haven demand. It holds above the 105 mark for a fifth straight session. EURUSD extended to 1.0616 lows, while GBPUSD broke 1.2300, breaching its 6-month support level, ahead of BOE rate decision. The Yen struggled and USDJPY lifted to 148.45. It has currently pulled back down to 148.15.
*Stocks – JPN225 and ASX lost -1.4% overnight, after a lower close on Wall Street and European as well as US futures are also in the red. The US100 closed -1.53% in the red, with the US500 down -0.94% while the US30 was off -0.22%.
*Commodities – USOil under $89 per barrel, as the changed rate outlook weighed on demand expectations.
*Gold has continued to trade lower at day’s low $1924.10 as markets wait for the BOE announcement.


Today: BOE Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, US Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, ECB President Lagarde speech.


Interesting Mover: CHFJPY has lost -1.03% so far today after the SNB announcement.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 22nd September 2023.


Market Update – September 22 – A Sideways Friday?





Wall Street closed with broad losses, but sentiment stabilised somewhat overnight, with China bourses outperforming. Japanese markets didn’t benefit from the BoJ’s ongoing commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy settings and the Yen sold off as the BoJ kept monetary policy parameters unchanged. European futures are in the red, US futures slightly higher, as markets continue to digest this week’s policy announcements. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.4 bp, the 10-year JGB rate has corrected -0.2 bp, while yields nudged higher across Australia and New Zealand.





BoJ kept monetary settings unchanged – as expected. Japan’s central bank offered no clear sign of a shift in its policy stance. The negative interest rate and the settings of the yield curve control program were left unchanged. The BoJ also maintained the pledge to add further stimulus if needed. The Yen weakened on the policy statement and yen bears will continue to test the officials’ resolve to stabilise the currency.


*FX – USDIndex has remained supported above 105 but off 105.48 highs. EURUSD and GBPUSD steady above 1.0640 and 1.2265 respectively. The Yen sold off and USDJPY lifted again to 148.40. Sterling weakened against the USD to a session low of 1.2250 after data showed retail sales in Britain rose less than expected in August.
*Stocks – US100 slumped -1.82%, with the US500 down -1.64%, and the US30 off -1.08%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. JPN225 ended the day down 0.52% at 32,402.41.
*Commodities – Oil prices have started to stabilise, after being knocked back by the hawkish Fed. USOil is trading at $90.28 per barrel now, Brent at $93.75 per barrel.
*Gold rebounded to $1924.80.


Today: PMIs from Germany, Eurozone, UK and US. Canadian Retail Sales also on tap.





Interesting Mover: NZDJPY has rallied by 0.65% post BoJ announcement and Ueda’s comments.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 25th September 2023.


Market Update – September 25 – Yen breached 11-month low.





Stock markets traded mixed across Asia, with China bourses underperforming as concern over the health of the property sector resurfaced. Evergrande -20.91% -Sales not as expected, unable to issue new notes under its debt restructuring plan. European futures and US futures are lower. The “higher for longer” message continues to weigh on sentiment and while the US may be heading for a soft landing, Europe is clearly struggling. The rise in energy prices is not helping. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently up 2.8 bp, the 10-year Bund yield 1.0 bp. EU escalates China tensions with probe to ward off cheap EPS and warns China it will be more assertive on ‘fair trade’. Republicans struggle to unite around a plan to avert shutdown.


A full, lengthy shutdown of the US government is “likely” at the end of the month and could leave the Fed reluctant to raise interest rates in November.





*FX – USDIndex has lifted 105.30. EURUSD and GBPUSD are 1.0640 and 1.2245 respectively. The Yen sold off and USDJPY lifted again to 148.45.
*Stocks – JPN225 and ASX lifted 0.9% and 0.1%. Wall Street pared its modest early gains and closed in the red. The US30 was off -0.31% to 33,964, with the US500 lower by -0.23% to 4320, and the US100 down -0.09% to 13,212. All were sharply lower for the week too with respective declines of -1.9%, -2.9%, and -3.6%. In fact, it was the worst week for the S&P since the March 10 week that included the SVB collapse.
*Commodities – Oil rose this morning at $90.07 as expectations of tight supply and signs of stronger economic performance in China and the US boosted prices. Russia last week banned the export of diesel and petrol, adding to supply pressures after the country joined Saudi Arabia in extending oil production cuts to the end of this year. Hedge Funds join bullish bets on oil.
*Gold rebounded to $1927.15 but overall remains sideways.


Today: ECB President Lagarde speech.





Interesting Mover: BTCUSD is down for a 4th day in a row, retesting $26,000.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 26th September 2023.


Market Update – September 26 – Bears in control!





Asian stock markets sold off, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 extending yesterday’s slide, as concern about China’s property sector deepened. Evergrande Group’s mainland unit said it failed to repay an onshore bond, which added to uncertainty over the future of the developer. Attempts to get restructuring plans back on track are ongoing, but investors are worrying about the risk of a potential liquidation.


European and US futures are also in the red, as Treasury yields continue to rise. The hawkish, higher for longer stance from the FOMC and most major central banks has put bears in control. Fears over sustained inflationary pressures, largely thanks to the resilient economy and higher oil prices weighed. The advent of supply is adding to the rise in rates too.


Moody’s also noted that a government shutdown, which is possible at the end of the month, would be a “negative” for ratings. Wall Street also reversed opening losses with the bump in risk appetite also hurting Treasuries.





*FX – USDIndex has cleared the 106 mark as risk aversion picks up. EURUSD and GBPUSD both broke below 1.06 and 1.22 support levels respectively. The USDJPY firmed to an intraday high of 149.18.
*Stocks – JPN225 slipped 1.0% to 32,054, ASX dipped 0.5% to 7,044.90, Hang Seng shed 0.9% to 17,576.83, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,109.69. Amazon rose 1.7% and was the strongest single force pushing up the US500. US500 fell 0.4% as of London open, while US100 futures fell 0.6%.
*Commodities – Oil slipped below 88.00, with next support level at 86, due to US Dollar strength, which looks to outweigh supply tightness.
*Gold- retested 200-day SMA at 1909.


Today: BoE Governor Bailey’s meeting of the central bank’s Financial Policy Committee and US CB Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales.





Interesting Mover: VIX (+5.5%) extending to 1-month resistance at 18.20.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 27th September 2023.


Market Update – September 27 – Temporary Optimism?





Chinese indexes stabilised after a 2-day decline amid fresh optimism that official measures will be able to boost the recovery. Industrial profits improved for the first time in a year and the People’s Bank of China said it would step up policy adjustment and implement monetary policy in a “precise and forceful” manner to support the economy. Confidence in China’s recovery has been going up and down for so long now, that investor confidence could take lasting damage.





The omnipresent fear of the FOMC’s higher-for-longer policy stance (and indeed that of the ECB, BoE, and BoC) remains a major worry and was exacerbated after JPMorgan’s Dimon noted the potential for a 7% rate as a worst case scenario. Additionally, the threat of a US government shutdown this weekend and Moody’s warning of the potential negative impact on ratings rattled too and left buyers sidelined. Technicals have played a part as well with key levels in stocks, bonds, and the USD having been broken. The drop in September consumer confidence, manifested the anxieties and added to the selloff.


*USDIndex continued to rally and firmed to its 2023 and 10-month high as it benefited from a haven bid, along with the relative outperformance of the US economy and rate differentials.
*EURUSD and GBPUSD posted fresh lows at 1.0554 and 1.2134. The USDJPY is steady at 149.15.
*Stocks – Hang Seng and CSI300 rose 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. Futures are mixed across Europe and slightly higher in the US, after Wall Street dragged down to the lowest levels since early June. The US100 tumbled -1.57% to 13,063.6. News that the FTC was suing Amazon helped knock big tech sharply lower. The US500 was down -1.47% to 4273 with 90% of the index and all sectors in the red. The US30 slid -1.14% to 33,618, slumping below its 200-day moving average.
*Commodities – Oil rebounded to 90.80 as API reported a fall in inventories in Oklahoma.
*Gold – broke 1900 and currently settled to 1895.50 as haven demand favors the Dollar rather than the precious metal. China jitters have flared up & expectations that central banks are sticking with the “higher for longer” messages have added to pressure on bullion.


Today: US Durable Goods.





Interesting Mover: Gold broke 1900, with next Support levels at 1885 & 1870.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 29th September 2023.


Market Update – September 29 – Dollar off 10-months high; Yen regains ground.





Stock as well as bond market are moving higher at the end of the quarter. GER30 and UK100 are up 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, after the Hang Seng bounced 2.7%. US futures are also posting gains, and yields are coming down. The German 10-year rate has corrected -5.1 bp, the 10-year Gilt yield is down -3.9 bp and the US 10-year rate has dropped -2.4 bp.





The omnipresent fear of the FOMC’s higher-for-longer policy stance (and indeed that of the ECB, BoE, and BoC) remains a major worry and was exacerbated after JPMorgan’s Dimon noted the potential for a 7% rate as a worst case scenario. Additionally, the threat of a US government shutdown this weekend and Moody’s warning of the potential negative impact on ratings rattled too and left buyers sidelined. Technicals have played a part as well with key levels in stocks, bonds, and the USD having been broken. The drop in September consumer confidence, manifested the anxieties and added to the selloff.


*USDIndex reverted to 105.54 from 106.50 giving the Yen some breathing room amid intervention concerns. The USDJPY slide to 148.50 has put investors on high alert for the risk of intervention. But Japanese authorities could find propping up their currency both difficult to achieve and hard to justify. (Reuters)
*Stocks up on the last trading day of the Q3 amid optimism over spending during China’s Golden Week holiday and on talks of a possible meeting between US and China leaders.
*UK: Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0.2% q/q & German retail sales unexpectedly correct again coupled with weak consumer confidence readings.
*US: Tight reading on jobless claims, a mixed GDP report & US mortgage rates at the highest level since 2000, as elevated interest rates and climbing bond yields push up borrowing costs.
*Gold at $1858, braced for their biggest monthly fall since February.


Today: The key US PCE but a partial government shutdown is looming, which could affect the release of any economic data.





Interesting Mover: USDJPY (-0.40%) pulled back to 148.50, after a rally closed to the 150 level. However, key support remains at 148.00.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 2nd October 2023.


Market Update – October 2 – Shutdown postponed as Q4 kicks off.





Just a few hours before the Saturday midnight deadline, Democrats and Republicans passed a short term bill (45 days) to keep the government funded into November and avoid a shutdown which would have put the paychecks of some 3 million Americans in the public sector and the military at risk. This is certainly not an optimal and confidence-inducing solution in the long term: however, the markets are increasingly accustomed to such events, which have occurred over 20 times in the last 50 years, including 4 in the last decade. It may be this, it may be the start of the new quarter, it may be the good data from Asia, but this morning there is a slight risk on, with the US and European indices up by an average of +0.3% and oil also rising after two bad sessions that saw it pulling back from previous annual highs. The good news came from Asia, where manufacturing in China bounced back into the expansion zone for the first time since last April – as witnessed by the Caixin – and also in Japan, the Tankan Survey saw optimism grow in this side of the productive tissue. This morning we are also seeing very different calls from 2 major US investment banks, with GS seeing demand for both oil and copper booming in China while CITI is taking the opposite view and sees weakness in industrial metals – with possible falls in the range of 5-10% – and Crude falling to $70 in early 2024. However, after September proved to be a particularly negative month with falls of up to 5.8% in the case of the Nasdaq, investors want to start off on the right foot and celebrate the agreement reached in Washington at the same time as they anticipate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks later today.


UKOil – USOil spread is narrowing



*FX – USDIndex just shy of 106, +0.15% @ 105.97; AUDUSD is the laggard among majors -0.30% @ 0.6414, *USDJPY is trading at 149.65 after having hit a new 2023 high at 149.82. EURUSD flat, GBPUSD @ 1.22.
*Stocks – US Futures are inching higher (US500 +0.40%, US100 +0.50%, US30 +0.39%%); EU futures are up as well (GER40 +0.35%, FRA40 +0.41%). September was a grim month: US30 -3.5%, US500 –4.9%, US100 -5.8%. Performances were negative for the whole Q3: -2.6%, -3.7%, -4.1% respectively.
*Commodities – USOil +0.64% at $91.32, UKOil is trading at $92.65 and their spread has narrowed to just $1.33, in the lower bound of this year’s range.
*GOLD – -0.19% @ $1845, XAGUSD adds another -1.44% to its recent prolonged drop, trading at $21.88.


Today: Highlights include Spanish, Italian, German, French, EZ, UK & US PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing, Fed’s Powell & Williams.





Interesting Mover: XAGUSD (-1.44% @ $21.88) had a wild session on Friday with a sharp reversal and an excursion of 6.16%. The trendline that originated in August 2022 has been broken, but there is another longer-term one currently passing through the $20.50 area, while $21.50 is a strong static support; the price is below its 50d and 200d MAs.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 3rd October 2023.


Market Update – October 3 – Risk off bites across asset classes.





Starting with APAC, the RBA has just unsurprisingly kept rates steady in Governor Bullock’s inaugural meeting with the statement largely a carbon copy from the Lowe era (”inflation is coming down, the labour market remains strong and the economy is operating at a high level of capacity utilisation”): AUD continues to decline this month and is -0.76% against the USD right now, followed by the KIWI which marks -0.63%. The JPY, which is one step away from 150, is surprisingly strong this morning, flat against the USD, as the rhetoric about the possibility of intervention continues, this morning from Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki. The JPN225, for its part, is down -1.85% and back to last June’s levels, but the whole of APAC is suffering: Hong Kong and China are back to trading and the former is down -3.04%, weighed down by developers and the energy sector. Moreover, the IMF has lowered growth expectations for the area.


US Yield Curve




More broadly, we are seeing a series of risk-off movements, evident in the strength of the USD which, after +0.75% yesterday, is now within touching distance of 107. Yesterday afternoon’s decent US ISM data helped long end yields continue to rise (10-Year at 4.691%) while continued weakness in Eurozone manufacturing sank the EURUSD below 1.05. European stock markets suffered more than American ones, which showed more indecision and ended the day mixed. But while the mega-cap filled Nasdaq finished at +0.83%, the RUSSELL 2000 index of small to mid-cap companies is now negative YTD. Finally, the weakness in precious metals was significant, with Silver plummeting -5.81% below $21; energy also sold off, with OIL down for four consecutive sessions and UKOIL down 8% from last Thursday’s high.


*FX – USDIndex +0.24% @ 106.86 after +0.75% yesterday; AUDUSD -0.73% @ 0.6316, NZDUSD -0.56%. YEN strengthens 0.03%, 149.82, USDCNH steady at 7.32. EURUSD -0.08% @ 1.0469 and CABLE at 1.20 handle after yesterday’s heavy session.
*Stocks – US Futures fractionally negative (US500 -0.12%, US100 -0.17%, US30 -0.11%). RUSSELL 200 turned negative YTD. EU futures -0.2% on average after both GER40 and FRFA40 lost -0.9% yesterday. APAC heavy: HK -3%, CHINA50 -1.53%, JPN225 -1.90%.
*Commodities – USOil -0.28% at $88.35, UKOil -0.44%, Wheat -0.13%, Corn -0.61%.
*Metals – Gold -0.27% @ $1822, XAGUSD @ 21.03, Copper -1.03%, Palladium -0.35%.


Today: highlights include US IBD/TIPP & JOLTS, Swiss CPI, Australian PMI (Final), Fed’s Bostic, ECB’s Lane & Valimaki.





Interesting Mover: Copper -1.0% @ $3.6065, is clearly losing the $3.70 area and below the $3.62 support, has been rejected by its 50MA and lost 1yr long uptrend, $3.53 is its next relevant support.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 4th October 2023.


Market Update – October 4 – On the way to old normal.





Yesterday at 08:30 am ET (New York Time), JOLTS job openings for August again showed an incredibly buoyant labour market with 9.61m new available vacancies versus the 8.8m analysts were expecting. Even though the main target is inflation, this is not what the Fed wants to see and the voice saying ”higher for longer” immediately resonated in traders’ minds. Bonds immediately sold off and the 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007, up 11 bps to 4.80%; Futures on 30y at the same time slid as much as 1.58% with the yield up to 4.924% and 30y mortgage rate approached. There are certainly deeper fundamental reasons, such as the continuing large US deficit at the same time that China and Japan have stopped being net buyers of US debt, with the former selling $40B a month since April and having already dumped $300B since 2021. However, it is not the current levels of rates that are abnormal, but rather those of the last 10 years. The current situation is actually back to the old normal.


10Y US Future



More than anything else, another thing caught the eye: after the data, USD immediately surged and broke 150 against the JPY, touching 150.16. And this is where the BOJ finally INTERVENED and caused the pair to fall 290 pips (or nearly 2%) in less than 5 mins. That doesn’t seem to be enough and now the USDJPY is trading back at 149.22: the Japanese currency’s structural weakness is still great at the moment, although the 1-year overnight swap is over 1% and the 3m-10y curve has never been steeper. The intervention has not been confirmed by the Ministry of Finance, and there is some rumour that it may actually have been just a Request For Quote that made primary dealers remove all bids and then triggered stop losses in minor players accounts.


Obviously this is not a good environment for equities and yesterday US equities underperformed their European peers with the US100 down 1.83% and the US30 ending in negative YTD territory (a day after the Russell). The US500 is now testing its 200 MA. The VIX flew above 20 and – some potentially good news – the inversion that can be seen between the spot and 3-month futures has indicated a market bottom in the past. But beware, history – when it repeats itself – almost never does so in exactly the same way.





At least commodities breathed easy and silver rebounded after the previous day’s sell-off.


*FX – USDIndex +0.18% @ 106.93; USDJPY hedging up +0.08% at 149.17, Aussie at 2023 lows (0.6307), Kiwi is today’s laggard, -0.44% at 0.5883.
*Stocks – US Futures negative again and heavy: US500 -0.57% and testing its 200 MA, US100 -0.78%, US30 -0.40% further into negative territory YTD. DAX future is testing 15k right before the cash open. Yesterday AMZN -3.66%, TSLA -2.02%, NVDA -2.82%, MSFT -2.61%.
*Commodities – USOil resumes its decline -0.76% at $88.72, UKOil -0.67%.
*Metals – Gold -0.17% @ $1819.64, XAGUSD @ 21.03, Palladium -1.21% below its ST floor.


Today: highlights include EZ, UK, US Services and Composite PMIs, EZ PPI, Retail Sales, US MBA, ADP, ISM, Durable Goods, OPEC+ JMMC, ECB’s Lagarde.





Interesting Mover: USDJPY -0.03% @ 149 after the shock of the intervention has recovered 2 handles and set 2 levels to be watched, 150 and 147.25 approx, while the trend is still clearly rising.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.