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  1. #51
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    Date : 4th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 4 – BOE Day!



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex firmed to 106.82 on Fed outlook and solid data before sliding to 106.38 at the close. Yields spiked on top of the heavy losses Tuesday (10yr 2.51%), then slipped again on strong factory orders data, with an eye on Friday’s NFP which will partly determine the magnitude of Fed tightening (10yr 2.7191%). US Stocks supported by good earnings news, and gains accelerated after solid data, shrugging off the jump in bond yields as the Fed funds futures market repriced for a 50-50 potential for a 75 bp September rate hike. European FUTS also higher. Oil dipped to $90.35 after OPEC+ disappointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest output increase in its history. Gold holds at $1770. Today – BOE expected to hike by 50 bp but stresses data dependency of further tightening moves.


    Overnight: US ISM-NMI services index rise to 56.7 from a 2-year low, US factory orders beat estimates climbed 2.0%. The rise joins big declines for the ISM, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed and Philly Fed, but gains for the Richmond Fed and Empire State, to leave an 8-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust November peaks. Surging interest rates and a flattening in real household spending as prices rise are aggravating the downtrend, though sentiment also faces support as businesses continue to restock.


    * USDIndex is holding above 106 at currently 106.30.
    * Equities – USA30 rose 1.29% (32.74K), USA500 rallied to 1.59% (4.15K) and USA100 surged 2.59%.
    * Yields 10-year lifted 2.5 bp to 2.73% and rates are also higher in Japan and Australia. The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.863% though after another contraction in German manufacturing orders flagged recession risks for the region.
    * Oil – dips to at $90.35. OPEC+ dissapointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest ouput increase in its history.
    * Gold – supprted by pullback in yields at $1770.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD dip to looks weak at 1.0163 and Cable is at 1.2147. USDJPY has lifted to 134.20 as recent haven flows into the yen recede. AUD and NZD regained some ground as global risk sentiment improved a little and a record Australian trade surplus underlined the natural inflows supporting the currency.


    Today – The BoE expected to hike by 50 bp but with a stress on the data dependency of further tightening moves. Front loading the tightening cycle also may also make sense in light of the leadership contest, with Liz Truss, the favorite to succeed Johnson mulling a shake up of the BoE. Investors are also waiting for details on the BoE’s plans for gilt sales. Governor Bailey previously indicated that the balance sheet will shrink at a pace of GBP 50-100 bln in the first year – including redemptions.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.99%) reverted week’s losses and currently at 84.47. MAs aligned higher, MACD lines rising, RSI 76. H1 ATR 0.202, Daily ATR 0.993.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #52
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 8th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 8 – USD holds post NFP bid.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex held onto NFP inspired bid trades at 106.40, from 106.80. NFP big beat across the board; headline more than double expectations at 528K, June revised 26K higher, Unemployment fell (3.5%) and Earnings rose (5.2%) = pressure back on Fed for 75bp hike in Sept. Recession – what Recession? US Stocks slipped led by tech. TSLA –6.6% (3-1 stock split 25/8), TWTR +3.56%, META –2.00%, LYFT +16.8% ($1bn profit expected 2024), AMZN -1.2% (to buy iRobot $1.7bn) Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.02%, Nikkei +0.29%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields rallied (10yr 2.8287%) Oil under $90, Gold under $1770 and BTC moved up to $23.5k.


    Berkshire Hathaway posted $43.8 bn loss on stock market declines. MUSK wants TWTR deal to go ahead if they can prove the % of real accounts, wants public debate with TWTR CEO. FED’s Bowman expects “more 75bp hikes”. CFTC Net Longs in USD reduced last week. Chinese exports hit record 5- mth high Trade balance back over $101 bn. Biden gets his $430bn Climate, Healthcare & Tax Bill through the Senate, China continues exercises around Taiwan for 5th day.


    Week Ahead: Highlight will be US CPI on Wednesday which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.


    * USDIndex rallied to 106.80 post NFP holds at 106.45 now. YEN underperformed in Asian session.
    * Equities – USA500 closed lower -6.75 pts (+-0.16%) (4145), US500FUTS at 4150 now. 4175 key resistance remains. S&P500 gained +0.4% for the week, NASDAQ +2.2%.
    * Yields 10-year yield rallied into close. The 2/10yr. yield curve is now 40bp inverted. 30yr back over 3.00%.
    * Oil – declined to $86.96 Friday back to $89.60 now and remains under $90.00.
    * Gold – topped at $1794 (50 day MA) in early Friday trades before tanking to under $1770. Trades at $1775 now, 20-day MA $1757.
    * Bitcoin dipped to $22.7K Friday, before strong weekend rally, trades at $23.7k now.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD down to 1.0177, USDJPY rallied 1.57% on Friday – trades at 135.50 now. Cable tested to important 1.2000 zone on Friday – recovered to 1.2080 now.


    Overnight – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.


    Today – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%). Bounced from 92.50 support on Friday to test key resistance and 7-day high today at 94.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive and signal line rising, RSI 69.44 rising & testing OB, H1 ATR 0.192, Daily ATR 1.218.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #53
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 9th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 9 – USD & Stocks Dip.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex slipped to test 106.00, before recovering to 106.20. US Stocks opened positively but closed flat for the day. NVDA –6.3%, Novavax -5.01%, AMC +8.03%, GM +4.16%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng flat, Nikkei -0.88%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields fell into close (10yr 2.7657%), Oil bounces close to 2% to recoup the $90 handle, Gold rallied over 1% from $1770 support and BTC moved up to test key $24K area.


    China continues exercises around Taiwan for 6th day, Russia installs more troops around captured key Ukrainian nuclear power plant, as US promises Ukraine another $1 billion in military aid.


    Week Ahead: Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.


    * USDIndex tested down to 106.00 after blockbuster NFP on Friday and holds 106.20 now. AUD & NZD underperformed in Asian session.
    * Equities – USA500 closed flat -5.13pts (-0.12%) (4140), tested & rejected 4175 resistance intraday. US500FUTS at 4144 now. 100 MA at 4100.
    * Yields 10-year yield fell into close as Treasuries eased with USD. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 44bp inverted yesterday. 10yr closed 2.765%, trades at 2.76% now.
    * Oil – rallied from 6-month lows under $87.00 again to test last weeks support at $90.70, holds at $90.00.
    * Gold – rallied from $1770, support to $1788 highs now. 20-day MA $1757.
    * Bitcoin surged to $24.2K Monday, before trading at $23.7k now.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD back over 1.02000, USDJPY rejected 135.50 Monday back to 135.00 now. Cable tested up to 1.2130 back to 1.2080 support now.


    Overnight - Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.


    Today – EIA STEO, Supply from UK, Germany & US.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.36%). Bounced from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but signal line rising, RSI 53.62 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.0134.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #54
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 10th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 10 – Dollar, Stocks & Yields Consolidate Ahead of CPI.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex slipped under 106.00, yesterday before again recovering to 106.20. US Stocks traded lower all day – dragged down by Semiconductors (NASDAQ -1.19%). MUSK to sell another $6.9 bn worth of TSLA stock (-2.44%). Intel -2.43%, NVDA -3.97%, Roblox -3.17%, OXY +3.95%. Asian markets lower too (Hang Seng -2.45%, Nikkei -0.68%). European FUTS also lower. Yields rose into close +1.16% (10yr 2.797%), Oil has declined back under the $90 handle, Gold sank to $1788 support and BTC has moved back $22.7K area.


    Biden announces a $280bn investment in high tech to compete with China; China maintains drills and firing around Taiwan.


    * USDIndex tested down to 105.80 but has recovered the 106.00-20 range today ahead of US CPI later. AUD underperformed in Asian session.
    * Equities – USA500 closed down -17.59pts (-0.42%) (4122), US500FUTS at 4118 now. 100 MA at 4100.
    * Yields 10-year yield rose into close as USD recovered. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 45bp inverted yesterday. 10yr trades down -0.25% at 2.79% now.
    * Oil – rallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.60 before declining to $89.60 now.
    * Gold – rallied & spiked to $1800 resistance before declining back to support at $1788 again. 20-day MA now $1761.
    * Bitcoin’s surge to $24.2K Monday; declined further today to $22.6 earlier, back to test $23k now.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD holds over 1.02000, at 1.0210, USDJPY continues to pivots around 135.00 and Cable does the same around 1.2080, in thin August markets.


    Overnight - JPY PPI missed (8.6% vs 9.4%), China CPI & PPI both weaker too (2.7% vs 2.9% & 4.2% vs 6.1%) respectively. German CPI (Final) in line 0.9% m/m & 8.5% y/y.


    Today – US CPI, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Evans & Kashkari. Earnings from Disney, Honda, Fox, Aviva, Evonik & E.ON.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%). Continued its bounce from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. Testing 1.4700 zone now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram now positive & signal line rising, RSI 61.83 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00148, Daily ATR 0.0132.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #55
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 11th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 11 – USD & Yields tank, Stocks rally as US CPI cools.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex tanked to 104.50 from 106.20, before recovering, Yields & the VIX dropped to 4 mth lows and Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.89%, now +20% from June lows). Cooler US CPI was the catalyst and expectations the FED is less likely to have to raise rates by 75 bp in September. Asian markets followed through too, (Hang Seng +2.08%, Nikkei closed). European FUTS also higher. Oil pushed up to the $92 handle, Gold sank to $1786 and BTC moved higher again to breach $24K area.


    Fedspeak – voiced caution – Kashkari now a BIG HAWK talked of being “far, far away from declaring victory over inflation” and wants at least another 140 bp this year and sees rates topping at 4.4% in 2023, Evans (centrist sees rates at 3.4% by December and Daly “not anywhere near done with inflation battle”. Cleveland Fed – “inflationary pressures remain broad based”.


    * USDIndex plunged -1.6% as broad based USD selling took hold. More hawkish Fed comments helped lift the index to 105.20 now. AUD underperformed in Asian session.
    * Equities – USA500 closed up 87.77pts (+2.13%) (4210), US500FUTS at 4227 now. DIS Big beat, Disney+ bigger than NETFLIX! & will raise prices from December – Shares up 3.98% on Wednesday & 6.85% after hours. Big tech all closed up 2%+.
    * Yields 10-year yield sank but recovered to 2.78% at close. The 2/10yr. yield curve also remained firmly inverted at 43.8 bp.
    * Oil – rallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.00, holds the zone now.
    * Gold – rallied & spiked to $1800 resistance again before declining back under to support at $1788, 20-day MA now $1766.
    * Bitcoin has surged to $24.5K now from $22.6k lows yesterday.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD breached 1.0350 trades at 1.0300, USDJPY tanked from 135.00 pivot to 132.00 back to 132.70 now and Cable did the same rallying from 1.2080, pivot to 1.2260 resistance & back to 1.2215 now.


    Today – US Weekly Claims & PPI, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Policy Announcement.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.51%). Recovery from spike lower yesterday continues, back to 0.6040 now from 0.5945. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram now positive & signal line neutral, RSI 61.57 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00558.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #56
    Golden Trader
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    Date : 12th August 2022.


    Market Update – August 12.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky


    USDIndex lifted to 105 after dropping to a low of 104.50 after the early data, but is still heading for a weekly loss amid trimmed back expectations for the Fed’s tightening path. US Yields down, but the curve inverted further as the short end underperformed, Yields in Australia and to a lesser extent New Zealand backed up today. US Stocks closed mixed, while in Asia, Stocks in Japan rallied in catch up trade on their return from yesterday’s holiday, but elsewhere the picture looked patchy overnight. The ASX lost -0.5% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.37% and down -0.06% respectively, after a narrowly mixed close on Wall Street. European and US futures are posting modest gains though. Oil pushed up to the $94 handle after the IEA upgraded its demand outlook yesterday, Gold sank to $1790 and BTC steady.


    Fed’s Daly told Bloomberg yesterday that there is an improvement in inflation numbers, but repeated that its too early to declare victory over inflation, repeating that her base case is for a half-percentage point hike at the next meeting.


    UK GDP contracted -0.1% q/q in the second quarter of the year, in line with our forecast and a tad less bleak than Bloomberg consensus, which predicted a contraction of -0.2% q/q. The -0.6% m/m decline in the monthly GDP number for June was sobering though and backed the BoE’s bleak outlook for the economy, which seems to be heading for a recession amid the cost of living crisis, the fallout from Brexit and political turmoil in Westminster.


    * USDIndex dropped to a low of 104.50 after the early data, but bounced to 105.18 by the close 4%.
    * Equities – USA100 off -0.58%, additionally hurt by the run up in rates. The USA500 was -0.07% lower, and the USA30 was 0.08% firmer.
    * Yields 10-year rate closed 12 bps higher at 2.89%. The 30-year cheapened 14 bps to 3.165%. The 2-year was up 2 bps to 3.235%. The curve was less inverted at -35 bps versus -44 bps Wednesday.
    * Oil – $93.90, Brent at $99.22 per barrel, after the IEA upgraded its demand outlook yesterday.
    * Gold –has been capped and it saw a low of $1783.67, before backing up to now $1790.87, as Treasury yields nudged lower.
    Bitcoin struggling to break 25K resistance.
    * FX Markets – EURUSD down to 1.0300, USDJPY steady at 133.35 and Cable holds at 1.2170 floor.


    Today – US Michigan Index.





    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) back to July’s highs at 86.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines extending higher, RSI 72.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.167, Daily ATR 0.976. Key Resistance at 86.56.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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