HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 29th November 2023.


Market Recap: Dollar slumped; Gold & Oil supported on rising Fed rate cut bets.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


*US consumer confidence improved better than expected, but it follows big downward revisions to October. The consumer confidence rise joins a Michigan sentiment decline to a 6-month low. All the surveys face headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and fears about developments in the Middle East.
*Fed’s Waller (the most hawkish Fed) & Goolsbee are “increasingly confident” that policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. BUT Fed Governor Bowman reiterated she favors more rate hikes if the progress on inflation stalls.
*The RBNZ warned this morning that further policy tightening might be needed if price pressures did not ease.
*German import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% m/m in October. However, annual import price inflation seems to have bottomed out in August and the trend of ever deeper deflation has been reversed now.





Market Trends


*Fed funds futures rallied on the dovish read. Implied rates popped to suggest about a 70% chance for a rate cut as soon as the May 1 policy meeting, versus about a 55% risk a week ago. However, a significant downturn in growth could spark the more aggressive easing posture as the market is reflecting.
*Treasury bulls took less than hawkish Fedspeak and ran with it. Short term bond yields dropped sharply, to the lowest since July and August.
*Stocks in Asia and US are fractionally higher after a mixed trade most of the session, as Treasury yields and USD hit multi-month lows. JPN225 fell at 33,321 as investors continue their pause in buying.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar bears chased the Buck lower. USDIndex fell to 102.36, the weakest since August. – Its worst monthly performance in a year!
*EURUSD broke 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, breaching 1.1016. Cable is at 1.2730.
*USDZAR extended to 18.51 lows, JPY jumped to its strongest point since mid-September at 146.66. The NZD surged more than 1% to July’s high of 0.6207.
*USOIL & Gold climbed to $77 from $74 lows, and to $2051.93 per ounce, the highest since May, respectively. The weaker US Dollar, global uncertainties, and rising Fed rate cut bets supported Gold and Oil.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 30th November 2023.


Market Recap: Stocks loosing their steam; Oil rallies ahead of OPEC+.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


*The US GDP report implied a Q3 productivity growth boost to a robust 5.1% from 4.7%, after an unrevised 3.6% Q2 clip. There was a Q3 growth rate trimming for the hours-worked index to 1.0% from 1.1% due to weakness in the hours-worked data in the last employment report.
*Fed rate cut bets deepened thanks to the lack of pushback from most Fed officials, and expectations for this pivot continued to drive the markets. There was no impact from the 5.2% GDP print.
*China’s manufacturing sector contracting for a 2nd consecutive month in November and performing worse than forecast indicates weakening momentum despite increasing government efforts to boost growth.
*EU: French inflation dropped sharply & German retail sales bounced in October. It was the first real improvement since May, which is likely also related to the moderation in inflation.


Market Trends


*Treasury yields richened further, and especially at the front end. Fed funds futures brought forward an easing in the policy rate to May from June. The curve dis-inverted to -38 bps on the bull steepener.
*Bonds are set to post the best month ever. Concurrently, the rate cut frenzy has boosted EGBs too, sending the global index to its best since 2008 the financial crisis.
*Stocks traded cautiously and lost steam into the close, as several Big Tech companies offset gains. The US30 gained 0.04%, while the US100 dropped -0.16%, with the US500 off -0.09%. Asian stocks were mixed as well, with CSI300 adding 0.5%.
*Meta fell 2%, Alphabet gave up 1.6% and Microsoft dropped 1%. General Motors surged 9.4% after the company announced a big stock buyback.
*The VIX was up 2.2% to 12.97, recovering from the 12.46 low from last week that had not been challenged since January 2020.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar steadied at 102.80, with a 102 handle for a 3rd straight day. It’s slumped from the October 3 peak of 107.00.
*EURUSD reversed below 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, at 1.0945. It remains well above 1.09.
*USDJPY retests a potential break of its 146.70 low for a 2nd day in a row, USDCAD extends below 1.36 confirming an ascending head and shoulders formation in the daily chart.
*Gold edged up 0.16% to $2044.18 per ounce.
*USOIL climbed 2% to $78.79 per barrel ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The delayed meeting of the expanded OPEC+ group will be held online.
*Bitcoin still hovering near the $38,000-mark.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 1st December 2023.


Market Recap: A November to remember!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


A November to remember. The markets were all over the place to end the month. While the FOMC is still the focal point, repositioning after some big moves on the month and positioning into year-end were the main drivers. The FOMC has reached peak rates, according to Fed funds futures, and rate cuts are the next action, now fully priced for May.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


*PCE: Data has been mixed but generally reflect progress on the FOMC’s inflation goal and has convinced markets that rate cuts are underway — core PCE fell to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y previously, but is still well above the 2% target. US pending home sales declined.
*OPEC+ announced an additional 1 mln barrels in cuts. The cuts will be announced individually by members, according to delegates. The Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its down voluntary cut of 1 million barrels.


Market Trends


*Best month in 40 years! Treasuries rallied on FOMC expectations. But profit taking ahead of comments from Chair Powell today unwound some of the froth. The curve steepened to -36 bps versus -50 bps Monday.
*Stocks: Wall Street befittingly finished mixed. The US30 rallied 8.9% with the US100 up 10.7%. For the month the US30 was up 8.8%, its second best November since 1980, according to Bloomberg.
*For the S&P, 10 of the 11 sectors are higher on the month.
*Asia Stock markets were under pressure overnight, with the Hang Seng underperforming, despite a better than expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI that managed to lift above the 50 point no change mark again.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex finished at 103.40 recovering from the slide to the 102.36 the prior two days after weaker than expected European and Chinese data.
*EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating a possible reversal of the 2-month rally, however 1.0830-1.0860 remains the key support area.
*USDJPY rebounds to 148.30, USDCAD dips further into 1-year triangle with immediate support at 1.35, while GBPUSD settles above 1.26 despite US Dollar appreciation.
*Gold slipped about -0.4% to the $2036 area on the rise in yields and some fading of haven trades.
*USOIL slumped 2.9% to $75.59 after spiking 2.2% to $79.60 after OPEC+ announced a further production cut.
*Key Mover: EURCHF down by 1.26%. Next Support levels: 0.95, 0.9440 and 0.9375.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 4th December 2023.


Market Recap: Cryptos Rise; Oil & Gold Down; Stocks Steady.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The holidays got a little cheerier amid signs that the major central banks have come to the end of their aggressive tightening postures. Despite protestations from policymakers to the contrary, the markets are now building in the start of rate cuts in 1H 2024. Those hopes underpinned one of the best November’s on record for bonds and stocks, and helped boost gold to a new record high!


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


*The market sentiment remains uncertain, as Chair Powell did not offer much pushback to expectations that rate cuts are the next move on the agenda or that there was a massive easing in financial conditions in November.
*The US November payrolls report on Friday is crucial for market expectations of rate cuts.
*Analysts anticipate a soft landing for the US economy, with positive but below-potential growth in the next six quarters.
*BofA notes a positive outlook for emerging markets, which are experiencing historically positive returns after the last Fed hike.


Market Trends


*Fed Chair Powell reminded investors the bank is not in a hurry to cut rates and yields are off Friday’s lows.
*Treasuries and Gold declined from session highs. Yields rose across various tenors in Treasuries, with the 10-year trading around 4.23%.
*Asian shares showed mixed results, with gains in Australian and Korean stocks, while Japanese equities fell. JPN225 closed down 0.6% at 33,231.27 after earlier sliding as much as 1.22%. European and US stock futures remained stable.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex nudged higher with Treasury yields and is at 103.43.
*EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating a possible reversal of the 2-month rally, however 1.0820-1.0865 remains the key support area.
*USDJPY dipped to 146.22, reaching a nearly 3-month high against the US Dollar. Currently though, it has reverted some gains, as speculation about an eventual unwinding of the Bank of Japan’s policies added pressure on the Yen.
*Gold down from all-time highs above $2,100, benefiting from lower yields.
*Oil prices faced challenges due to doubts about OPEC+ maintaining output cuts, high US production, and increasing rig counts. UKOIL eased to $78.37 a barrel, while USOIL fell to $73.63. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added to market considerations.
*Bitcoin surpassed $41,000, reaching its highest level since April 2022. Bitcoin’s rebound continued, reaching $41,746, with expectations of interest-rate cuts and potential ETF approvals. Smaller tokens like Ether and Dogecoin also experienced gains.
*Key Mover: EURJPY down by 1.92%. Next Support levels: 159 and 158.50.


This week:


*Investors are closely watching economic indicators, including Australian growth, Chinese inflation, and US non-farm payrolls data.
*The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain a hawkish stance.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 5th December 2023.


Market Recap: Fears of overbought condition prevail!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The markets giveth and the market taketh away. Red proliferated the screens as profit taking unwound some of Friday’s aggressive rallies. There were no real catalysts to the move, just fears that markets were overbought and rate cut bets too optimistic.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


*RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% at the final meeting of the year. The board, flagged, however, that progress in bringing inflation back to target was slower than anticipated. They noted uncertainty over the global outlook due to the Chinese economy and overseas conflicts.
*Aussie: Markets are still pricing in some risk of further tightening from the RBA, and the inflation numbers for the last quarter of the year will likely be decisive for the February 6 meeting.
*China: Services PMI expanded at a quicker pace in November, which was the highest in three months, as demand strengthened in Asia’s largest economy.


Market Trends


*Treasury yields closed just off session highs.
*Asia stock markets sold off, following on from a weaker close on Wall Street. China bourses underperformed, despite a stronger Services PMI.
*Stocks: Wall Street was underwater from the get-go and closed with modest declines. The US100 slumped -0.84% on weakness in big tech, including Meta on news CEO Zuckerberg was selling shares. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia also declined. Alaska Air dropped after announcing its acquisition of Hawaiian Air. US500 was off -0.54% and the US30 was down -0.11%.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex was one of the few gainers on the day, rebounding to 103.642 (intraday peak of 103.852) following Friday’s drop to 103.268.
*EURUSD declined to 1.08, indicating apotential retest of 1.0760, as the buck is firmer versus all its G10 peers as rate cut speculation is keeping a lid on EUR and GBP.
*USDJPY steady above 146.50.
*Gold has corrected somewhat as the US Dollar found a footing and Treasury yields lifted. It is currently steady at $2030 – $2040 area.
*Oil remained under pressure as USOIL is currently trading below $74 as markets remain distinctly unimpressed by the voluntary output cuts announced by OPEC+. With growth data suggesting subdued demand that is leaving fears of a sizeable supply overhang through 2024 on the table.
*Bitcoin extended higher and breached $42,337 for the first time since early 2022 (roughly 153% higher this year).
*Key Mover: Copper (-0.95%), with next Support at 3.75.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.