HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 20th September 2023.


Market Update – September 20 – FED will stay on hold; Dot Plot, SEP are key.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


In a day that will be centred around the Fed’s deliberations this evening, and above all the quarterly economic projections, the new dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference, we start with China where the PBoC just now left its benchmark rates unchanged, with the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. The Central Bank touted the strength of the national economy and said it has ample policy room as analysts bet on future rate cuts. Still in Asia, the Japanese trade balance fell 66.7% in August, coming in at 930.5 billion yen compared with the 2.79 trillion yen deficit a year ago: a smaller-than-expected but still 17.8% drop in imports contributed to this improvement. Yesterday saw the USD suffer badly up to the US open, with the USDIndex at -0.4% at one point and particularly weak against currencies such as the CAD, before recovering most of its losses and closing flat: the EURUSD was back below 1.07 as was the Cable below 1.24. US yields returned to new highs across the curve, on the 2, 5 and 10 year, the latter two being the highest levels since 2007. Stocks and indices closed in the red, led by the US30.


Another extremely interesting movement was that of oil, which saw Brent crude come within a hair’s breadth of $96 and Crude above $92, at very strong resistance levels tested several times last year, before falling back profusely: at the moment, the US blend is trading at $90.35.


FED’s current Dot Plot, representing Members’ rates forecasts



Tonight is the Fed meeting and there is a 99% probability that the official rate will remain in the 5.25%-5.50% range. But September is also the meeting where the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be renewed and the new Dot Plot will be released: these will be key points to understand what will happen next. On the other hand, it is possible that Powell will do everything he can during the conference to reiterate to the markets that they should not think they know what he and the other board members will do in the coming months.


*FX – USDIndex flat at 104.82; EURUSD +0.05% @ 1.0685, GBPUSD -0.30% @ 1.2355, USDCAD +0.06% @ 1.3456, USDJPY flat @ 147.88, USDCNH 7.308.
*Stocks – US Futures are lower to flat (US500 -0.04%, US100 -0.10%, US30 +0.01%); GER40 is +0.10%, FRA40 -0.09%. EV maker TIO tumbled -12%.
*Commodities – USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, UKOil is trading at $93.44 after getting close to hitting $96 last night.
*GOLD – flat @ $1931.


Today: Highlights include UK CPI, PPI, Retail PI (JUST OUT, much better than expected), German PPI, US Mortgage applications, EIA Weekly Oil Stocks Change, FED INTEREST RATE DECISION, FOMC ECONOMIC PROJECTION & PRESS CONFERENCE.





Interesting Mover: USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, perfectly pulled back after reaching a key resistance level at the $92.20 area, drew a spinning top and is dumping overbought levels on the RSI.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 21st September 2023.


Market Update – September 21 – Stocks fade, USD up as CBs spring on.



It was Fed Day and it did not disappoint. As universally expected, the result of the FOMC was a “hawkish hold.”


But we and the markets got a little more than bargained for as Chair Powell and the FOMC revealed an even more restrictive policy stance than anticipated, and clearly signaled a higher for longer stance. The markets got the message loud and clear. Stocks and bond markets are under pressure, after the Fed decision hit risk appetite. The FOMC kept rates on hold yesterday, but signalled that another hike is in the cards later in the year.





Switzerland’s SNB surprised by keeping rates on hold. Expectations had been for another 25 bp hike, but after the recent drop in inflation, the SNB decided to keep policy settings unchanged. The statement stressed that “the significant tightening of monetary policy over recent quarters is countering remaining inflation pressure”, although it left the door open to another hike by saying that “it cannot be ruled out that further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary”. The central bank’s new forecasts put inflation at 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, before a drop to 1.9% in 2025.


*FX – USDIndex has lifted to 105.35 on the Fed outlook and also support from haven demand. It holds above the 105 mark for a fifth straight session. EURUSD extended to 1.0616 lows, while GBPUSD broke 1.2300, breaching its 6-month support level, ahead of BOE rate decision. The Yen struggled and USDJPY lifted to 148.45. It has currently pulled back down to 148.15.
*Stocks – JPN225 and ASX lost -1.4% overnight, after a lower close on Wall Street and European as well as US futures are also in the red. The US100 closed -1.53% in the red, with the US500 down -0.94% while the US30 was off -0.22%.
*Commodities – USOil under $89 per barrel, as the changed rate outlook weighed on demand expectations.
*Gold has continued to trade lower at day’s low $1924.10 as markets wait for the BOE announcement.


Today: BOE Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, US Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, ECB President Lagarde speech.


Interesting Mover: CHFJPY has lost -1.03% so far today after the SNB announcement.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 22nd September 2023.


Market Update – September 22 – A Sideways Friday?





Wall Street closed with broad losses, but sentiment stabilised somewhat overnight, with China bourses outperforming. Japanese markets didn’t benefit from the BoJ’s ongoing commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy settings and the Yen sold off as the BoJ kept monetary policy parameters unchanged. European futures are in the red, US futures slightly higher, as markets continue to digest this week’s policy announcements. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.4 bp, the 10-year JGB rate has corrected -0.2 bp, while yields nudged higher across Australia and New Zealand.





BoJ kept monetary settings unchanged – as expected. Japan’s central bank offered no clear sign of a shift in its policy stance. The negative interest rate and the settings of the yield curve control program were left unchanged. The BoJ also maintained the pledge to add further stimulus if needed. The Yen weakened on the policy statement and yen bears will continue to test the officials’ resolve to stabilise the currency.


*FX – USDIndex has remained supported above 105 but off 105.48 highs. EURUSD and GBPUSD steady above 1.0640 and 1.2265 respectively. The Yen sold off and USDJPY lifted again to 148.40. Sterling weakened against the USD to a session low of 1.2250 after data showed retail sales in Britain rose less than expected in August.
*Stocks – US100 slumped -1.82%, with the US500 down -1.64%, and the US30 off -1.08%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. JPN225 ended the day down 0.52% at 32,402.41.
*Commodities – Oil prices have started to stabilise, after being knocked back by the hawkish Fed. USOil is trading at $90.28 per barrel now, Brent at $93.75 per barrel.
*Gold rebounded to $1924.80.


Today: PMIs from Germany, Eurozone, UK and US. Canadian Retail Sales also on tap.





Interesting Mover: NZDJPY has rallied by 0.65% post BoJ announcement and Ueda’s comments.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 25th September 2023.


Market Update – September 25 – Yen breached 11-month low.





Stock markets traded mixed across Asia, with China bourses underperforming as concern over the health of the property sector resurfaced. Evergrande -20.91% -Sales not as expected, unable to issue new notes under its debt restructuring plan. European futures and US futures are lower. The “higher for longer” message continues to weigh on sentiment and while the US may be heading for a soft landing, Europe is clearly struggling. The rise in energy prices is not helping. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently up 2.8 bp, the 10-year Bund yield 1.0 bp. EU escalates China tensions with probe to ward off cheap EPS and warns China it will be more assertive on ‘fair trade’. Republicans struggle to unite around a plan to avert shutdown.


A full, lengthy shutdown of the US government is “likely” at the end of the month and could leave the Fed reluctant to raise interest rates in November.





*FX – USDIndex has lifted 105.30. EURUSD and GBPUSD are 1.0640 and 1.2245 respectively. The Yen sold off and USDJPY lifted again to 148.45.
*Stocks – JPN225 and ASX lifted 0.9% and 0.1%. Wall Street pared its modest early gains and closed in the red. The US30 was off -0.31% to 33,964, with the US500 lower by -0.23% to 4320, and the US100 down -0.09% to 13,212. All were sharply lower for the week too with respective declines of -1.9%, -2.9%, and -3.6%. In fact, it was the worst week for the S&P since the March 10 week that included the SVB collapse.
*Commodities – Oil rose this morning at $90.07 as expectations of tight supply and signs of stronger economic performance in China and the US boosted prices. Russia last week banned the export of diesel and petrol, adding to supply pressures after the country joined Saudi Arabia in extending oil production cuts to the end of this year. Hedge Funds join bullish bets on oil.
*Gold rebounded to $1927.15 but overall remains sideways.


Today: ECB President Lagarde speech.





Interesting Mover: BTCUSD is down for a 4th day in a row, retesting $26,000.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.