HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd March 2023.


Market Update – March 22 – Stocks build a rally ahead of Banks!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Stocks Rallied! Asian stock markets have followed Wall Street higher, GER30 and UK100 futures are also posting slight gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed as markets wait for the FOMC announcement later today. Even though concern over global financial stability is easing and risk appetite has improved, with central banks expected to tighten policy further there is still some nervousness ahead of the announcement, as fears that aggressive action will add further pressure continue to weigh.


UK inflation surged higher ahead of BoE.


The data came in much higher than anticipated, with CPIH rising to 9.2% y/y from 8.8% y/y, while CPI hit 10.4% y/y. Most worrying for policymakers will be the jump in core inflation – from 5.8% y/y to 6.2% y/y. The data will likely force the BoE’s hand tomorrow and another rate hike looks much more certain now than before the release.


*FX – USDIndex has corrected to 102.75 as Treasury yields declined. EUR corrected to 1.0760 but still in an upchannel. JPY weakened for a 2nd day, while it is now holding at 132.50. Sterling jumped after data to 1.2283.
*USDCAD popped to 1.37 on the cooler Canadian Inflation, from a 1.3654 low, but has dipped back to 1.3662 currently.
*Stocks – US100 advanced 1.6%, the US500 is up 1.3% and the US30 added 316 points, +1%. First Republic shares surged 29% while KeyCorp, US Bancorp, Truist Financial and Comerica picked up about 9% each by the close. Those five were also the top gainers on the US500 for the day.





*Commodities – USOil – has snapped a two day run higher and is currently at $69.50.
*Gold – Evening Star Formation ? Gold slumped back to $1934 as yields on the 10-year government bond jumped Tuesday, making it more appealing to hold Treasuries than Gold.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds around $28K highs.


Today - ECB Lagarde speech, FOMC began its meeting, 25 bp hike expected, focus on dot plot!





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF(-0.56%). Jumped to 1.1334 reversing half of yesterday’s losses! MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 57 and rising.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd March 2023.


Market Update – March 23 – Stocks Slumped Post Fed.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Stocks continue month’s downward spiral! Wall Street reversed gains to close with declines of -1.6%, but the slump was a function of comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen rather than the Fed. FOMC hiked 25 bps as expected, 2023 median dot left unchanged at 5.125%.


“The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” rather than “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”- suggesting less than a 50-50 risk for another quarter point move!


Even though Powell began his press conference reiterating the banking system is “sound and resilient” and assured the Fed is prepared to use all its tools to keep it safe and sound, Yellen at the same time told lawmakers she wasn’t considering ways to provide broad guarantees to uninsured bank deposits. She assured Senator Joe Manchin that in the event the insurance is extended, it could be seen as a “special one-time assessment” where the cost was not a burden to customers with smaller deposits.


*FX – USDIndex slumped on the less hawkish view to 101.54 as Treasuries and implied Fed funds futures rallied on the policy outcome. That is not far from the 101.21 from February 1 which was the weakest since April 2022. EUR spiked to 1.0920, JPY has corrected to 130.80 from 130.41 low and Sterling to 1.2337 ahead of BOE.
*In the UK, MPs backed Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit Northern Ireland deal!





*Stocks – Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Nikkei and ASX following Wall Street lower, but China bourses outperforming. European futures are down, in catch up trade, and ahead of today’s decisions. US100 down –1.6%, the US500 is up at –1.65% and the US30 to -1.63%. PNC -5.49% and US Bancorp USB -7.28% declined more than 5%. Giants like JPMorgan -2.58% and Bank of America Corp. -3.32% slipped more than 2%. First Republic FRC -15.47%.
The FAANG era is apparently over! Apple & Microsoft weightage in the S&P500.
*Commodities – USOil – hovering around $70.
*Gold – Evening Star Formation & Head and Shoulders failed! Gold recovered and is back to $1980 highs on the weak USD. Next key Resistance at $1990-$2000.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC filled March gap but found a floor at $27K.


Today - SNB and BOE Decisions are in the spotlight, while EU consumer confidence figures is also on tap.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+1.66%). Jumped to 1983. MAs flattened indicating possible consolidation in the near term but MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 67 and flat.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 24th March 2023.


Market Update – March 24.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The various monetary policy stances and other dynamics in the financial markets are likely to keep the Greenback choppy.


Stocks initially down as Yellen stated that the government was not considering blanket deposit insurance, but afterwards her remark that the government is prepared to take additional actions provided some calm holding Wall street in green at the close, with gains of 1.01% on the US100. Asia markets were mixed, while European stocks are slightly higher on open. Overnight the BoE, SNB, and Norges Bank all hiked rates as expected – The SNB delivered a 50 bp hike, Norges Bank and BoE hiked by 25 bp. The bounce in risk appetite, the strength in jobless claims, and a renewal in corporate issuance have weighed a bit as well.


*FX – USDIndex modestly weaker at 102.30. EUR spiked to 1.0830, JPY has extended to 130.00 and Sterling found a floor at 1.2250.
*In Japan, we saw core inflation come in at 3.1% for February, marking the first time in 14 months that the pace of inflation has slowed.






*Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.23% and 0.3%, respectively. Block & Coinbase tumbled over 14% and #FRC #PACW lost -6% and -8.55% respectively. Nikkei was down 0.13% to close.
*Payments group Block said it intends to work with US regulators and explore legal action against Hindenburg Research after the short seller issued a report accusing the company of inflating its user numbers and facilitating fraudulent transactions.
*Commodities – USOil – hovering around $69-$70 as traders weigh the Fed policy outlook and fine-tune expectations for US demand. The US crude inventories unexpectedly lifted 1.1 million barrels last week, which is the highest since May 2021. Large builds on the Gulf coast outweighed a decline at the Cushing Oklahoma storage hub. Markets are still waiting for the expected bounce in Chinese demand, while on the supply side Russia decided to extend its output reduction through June. That should help to keep a floor under prices.
*Gold – at $1985 after retesting $2003 again. Treasury yields may have nudged higher, USD remains under pressure but Gold has remained supported and added to the gains.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $28K.


Today - PMIs from EU, UK and US and Durable Goods.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.56%). Drifted to 81.10. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 31 and falling. H1 ATR 0.25 & Daily ATR 1.19.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th March 2023.


Market Update – March 27 – A Volatile Final Week of Q1?



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asian markets are much calmer today after another wild and volatile week, but bank angst and recession risk continue to linger. JPY is underperforming peers to start the week. US Stocks eked out gains on Friday, the USD recovered & Treasury yields fell across the curve, with all trading under 4%. Deutsche & Commerzbank lost -8.53% and -5.54% respectively. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank will buy SVB from the FDIC, the Head of the IMF warns that global financial stability is at risk from banking turmoil, and the head of the Saudi Arabian national bank is forced to resign after sparking the run on Credit Suisse.


Week Ahead: US GDP on Wednesday and the CORE PCE Price Index on Friday top the data releases and the week, month and quarter.


*FX – USDIndex rallied from 102.00 on Friday to test 103.00 and holds at 102.80 now. EUR slipped to 1.0750 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY dipped below 129.50 on Friday before recovering to 131.25 now. Sterling tested down to 1.2200 on Friday and holds at 1.2225 now. UK OBR said that UK economy is 4% smaller due to Brexit exclusively.
*Stocks – US markets moved higher (+0.31% to +0.41%) Major movers were elsewhere: DB.de -8.53%, CBK.de -5.54%. Tech giants lifted US markets. US500 +0.56% (+22.27) to 3970, US500 FUTS higher too 4021 now.





*Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the $67.00 level again on Friday before recovering to $70.00. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday and trades at $1970 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds at $28k after struggling to move away from this level last week.
Today - German Ifo, Speeches from Fed’s Jefferson, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel & Elderson.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.55%). Continued the rally today from Friday’s low test of 94.00 back to 95.50 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.198, Daily ATR 1.600.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th March 2023.


Market Update – March 28 – Calmer Markets & Weaker USD



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Banking stocks rose across the spectrum yesterday into the Asian and European sessions, easing worries over illiquidity and any further bank runs, for now. JPY is over performing peers after yesterday’s weakness. US Stocks were mixed and the USD weaker as Treasury yields recovered across the curve, but all remain under 4%. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank gained +53%, FRC +11.80%, BAC, +4.97% led the Wall Street behemoths and Oil stocks were lifted by a rise in crude prices. Andrew Bailey said too many UK workers were retiring early, EU banking regulator (EBA) warns ” risks in the financial system remain very high” following similar comments from IMF chief yesterday.


Overnight: AUD Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.2% & 1.8%) & JPY Core CPI (2.7% vs 3.0% & 3.1%) both missed significantly.


*FX – USDIndex drifted lower all day yesterday and has moved down again today to 102.25 now. EUR rallied from 1.0750 support over 1.0800 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY rejected 200hr MA yesterday at 131.70, down to 130.50 ahead of JPY Inflation data, Sterling rallied over 1.2300 today and holds at 1.2325 now.
*Stocks – US markets mixed (-0.47% to +0.61%) Major movers outside the banks were GOOG -2.83% and OXY +2.53%. US500 +0.16% (+6.5) to 3977, US500 FUTS 4018 now.





*Commodities – USOil – Futures recovery continued yesterday from $70.00 to test previous support level at $73.00 today. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday & breached $1950 yesterday, back to $1955 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC fell from $28k after US regulators sued Binance, & CEO Changpeng Zhao for running an “illegal” exchange and a “sham” compliance programme. Zhao called the complaint “unexpected and disappointing.” BTC dipped to $26.5K before recovering $27K.


Today - US Senate Banking Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Enria, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden & Fed’s Barr.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.67%). Rejected 200hr MA yesterday at 131.70, down to 130.50 ahead of JPY Inflation data. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 45 & falling, H1 ATR 0.206, Daily ATR 1.910.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th March 2023.


Market Update – March 29 – USD continues to ease as sentiment lifts.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Bank jitters continue to ease lifting sentiment & Asian markets despite US stocks closing in the red. The USD eased another 0.3% and Yields gained with the 2-yr regaining 4%. Alibaba surged 14.3% in US trading and was up 16.3% at one point in Hong Kong after it announced it will split into 6 separate entities. Other Chinese tech companies (Tencent & JD.com)) are stronger. The YEN continues it’s volatile week as year end looms, AUD is lower on weaker Inflation, European & US Futures are higher. US Consumer Confidence was better than expected, the Fed’s Barr called SVB “not well managed” and that the $142 billion of withdrawals in first week of March represented 81% of 2022 deposits.


Overnight: AUD CPI missed (6.8% vs. 7.2% & 7.4%) and adds to prospects of RBA pausing rate hikes at next week’s meeting. German GfK Consumer Climate in-line (-29.5% vs -29.5% & -30.6%).


*FX – USDIndex drifted 0.3% lower yesterday to test 102.00 before a bounce to 102.25. EUR rallied from 1.0800 to 1.0850 now. JPY continued its volatile week back to 132.00 now after lows of 130.40 yesterday, Sterling rallied over 1.2300 to 1.2340 and holds at 1.2325 now.
*Stocks – US markets lower (-0.12% to -0.45%) Major movers outside the Chinese tech stocks were OXY +4.29% & LYFT -7.6%. US500 –0.16% (-6.26) to 3971, US500 FUTS +0.37% higher at 4026 now.





*Commodities – USOil – Futures recovery continued again yesterday from $70.00 to hold over $73.00 and test $74.00. EIA Inventories today. Gold – dipped to $1950 once again, rallied to $1975 and trades at $1960 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC has recovered to $28k today after testing $26.5k again. SBF faces new SEC charges that he tried to bribe Chinese officials with a $40 million payment.


Today - US House Financial Services Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from Fed’s Barr, BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Schnabel.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.79%). Volatility continues. Tested down to 130.40 after weak inflation yesterday, testing 132.00 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.216, Daily ATR 1.910.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th March 2023.


Market Update – March 30 – Stocks Recover & USD finds a floor.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Bank jitters continue to ease lifting sentiment again, US stocks rallied (+1% to +1.79%) led by the NASDAQ, Asian markets are mixed and European FUTS are positive. The USD bounced 0.2% but has eased overnight and Yields drifted sideways. Earnings beats from Micron (+7.19%) & Lululemon (12.72%) were upbeat surprises too. The YEN continues it’s volatile week as the Japanese financial year end looms. AUD recovers from yesterday’s weaker performance. US Pending Home Sales were better than expected (+0.8% -2.9%) and Oil Inventories significantly lower (-7.5M vs +1.8M) the Fed’s Barr continued to claim that “many were to blame for Silicon Valley Bank failure”.


Overnight: German CPI North Rhine Westphalia (many more States to follow during the day) March CPI +6.9% vs +8.5% prior.


*FX – USDIndex recovered 0.2% yesterday but remains capped at 102.50, trading at 102.25 now. EUR holds over 1.0800 to trade at 1.0840 now. JPY continued its volatile week rallying from under 131.00 to 132.50 now, Sterling plotted a 39-day high yesterday at 1.2360, before receding to 1.2325 now.
*Stocks – US markets rallied lead by tech stocks yesterday (+1.00% to +1.79%) #US100 entered a technical bull market after gaining +20% from its December low and the #US500 closed above 4000 and also over its 50SMA for the first time in over three weeks. Major movers also included INTEC +7.61% & AMZN +3.1%. US500 +1.42% (+56.54) to 4027, US500 FUTS also higher at 4066, breaking & breaching key 4050 resistance.





*Commodities – USOil – Futures declined from $74.00 after EIA Inventories and trades at $73.60 now. Gold – dipped to $1955 once again, and trades at $1965 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC has breached $29k today and holds $28.5k again.


Today - Swiss KOF Indicator, EZ Consumer Confidence, German CPI, US Weekly Claims, Q4 GDP & PCE Prices, Banxico & SARB Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, SNB’s Maechler & Moser.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (-0.30%). Rallied from 1.7300 yesterday to big DAILY resistance at 1.7450 today before turning lower to break 1.7400. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 45.90 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00189, Daily ATR 0.01695.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st April 2023.


Events to Look Out For Next Week.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


It’s a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however Inflation and Banks remain the focal point. The advent of a new month and new quarter could further improve risk appetite despite some ongoing jitters in regional banks, still tight jobless claims, and hawkish central bankers. Next week’s heavy dose of global data releases includes the RBA and RBNZ rate decision and the employment data from Canada, while US NFP is in the spotlight.


Monday – 03 April 2023


*Consumer Price Index and Core (CHF, GMT 06:30) – Swiss inflation for March is expected to ease at 0.4% from 1.9% previously.
*ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to slip to 47.5 in March, after a rise to 47.7 from a 3-year low of 47.4 in January.


Tuesday – 04 April 2023


*OPEC-JMMC meeting attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations.
*Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA is considering a pause on rate rises, according to the minutes to the March 7 meeting. They flagged that the board will consider keeping the cash rate on hold at 3.6% in April, if the economy shows signs of softening. “Members agreed to consider the case for a pause at the following meeting recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy”. “At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by the data and the board’s assessment of the outlook”.


Wednesday – 05 April 2023


*Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 02:00) – As the high inflation continues the RBNZ is expected to continue hiking, with markets pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps rate hike to 5%. New Zealand’s economy is expected to have shrunk 0.3% in Q1 following a 0.6% growth last quarter, indicating a mild recession.
*ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – ADP is expected to climb to 200K in March after the 242K seen in February.
*ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI should ease to 54.8 from 55.1, versus a 3-year low of 49.2 in December. We’re seeing a 16-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust peaks in November of 2021, with many of the various component categories now in contraction territory. Producers are facing big headwinds from elevated interest rates, recession fears, and now a banking crisis, but have benefited from the need to rebuild inventories following a prolonged period of supply chain disruptions.


Thursday – 06 April 2023


*Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s employment change is anticipated to contract by -4.2k in March from 21.8K growth last month. Unemployment and participation rate are seen unchanged.


Friday – 07 April 2023


*Good Friday – The stock and bond markets will both be closed.
*Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 220K March nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 311k in February. A continued tight path for claims in March implies some upside payroll risk. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.6% from February, up from the 54-year low of 3.4% (3.43%) in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.2% after a -0.1% February drop, while the workweek holds steady at 34.5. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in January, while the y/y wage gain should fall to 4.3% from 4.6%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 3rd April 2023.


Market Update – April 3 – Q2 kicks off with Easter Week.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Q2 kicks off with Easter Week, meaning many markets around the world will be closed, likely making for a slower, quieter pace of trading after the whiplash in Q1.


USD strengthened today and extends Friday’s gains with the help of diminished bank fears and the improved outlook on the economy. US Stock markets closed out Q1 firmly with solid gains and some quarter-end flows. The major indexes are higher for the year-to-date, paced by the US100‘s 16.8% pop. Asian markets are higher into the new quarter, US futures are mostly lower but European are mixed. Australian national home values rose 0.6% in March from February, breaking a 10-month streak of falls, according to property research group CoreLogic. Oil jumped $5+/barrel today as OPEC announced a surprise output cut.





Overnight: Japan – Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure missed significantly (3.2% vs 9.9%), China – Caixin PMI (50 vs 51.7), Australian Building Permits (4% vs -2.6%).


*FX – USDIndex rallied to 12.58, EUR dipped to 1.0780 having traded to 1.0930 last week. CHF topped to 0.9195 but currently gains some ground against USD after Swiss CPI inflation dropped more than anticipated. JPY continued spiking to 133.80 as Japanese data missed significantly. Sterling retests 1.2300.
*Stocks – US markets closed the Quarter higher and today holding some gains with US30 holding above 33,450, US500 also higher at 4120 and US100 slightly lower but above 13,190.





*Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied again on the weaker USD to hold over $78.88 at $81.47. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move.
*Gold – pullbacked to $1949.65 once again, holding 1-week’s support.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds $27.4k.


Today - ISM Manufacturing PMI & BOC Business Outlook Survey.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (+5.02%). Rallied to 81.43 this morning but currently sits at 78.91. MAs steady, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.72, H1 ATR 0.82, Daily ATR 3.35.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th April 2023.


Market Update – April 4 – RBA watered down its tightening bias!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


USD drifted, returning end of quarter gains on more signs of slowing in manufacturing activity, which had boosted Treasuries yields but after the data reversed the selloff. Implied Fed funds futures dipping too as the market reduced slightly the risk for a May rate hike. US Stock markets closed higher except US100. European futures are slightly higher. Oil held gains above $80 led by OPEC+ and Saudi’s pledge of its own of 500k reduction (“Saudi First”), which was the main driver across assets.


Overnight: RBA – held rates unchanged VS expectations – The bank has not ruled out a resumption of rate rises in the future. Fed’s Bullard (nonvoter) expects funds rate over 5% to achieve inflation target. ECB hawk Holzmann suggested that another 50 bp hike in May is not out of the question.


*FX – USDIndex sagged to a low of 101.98 on the growth outlook and less hawkish Fed view, but the index finished the day at 102.03. EUR lifted to 1.0916. JPY underperformed as traders weighed in the impact of higher oil prices on Japan’s manufacturing sector. Currently back up to 132.80 amid wider weakness in the Yen. Sterling boosted to 1.2400, amid USD weakness and as UK March manufacturing PMI revised down.






*Stocks – The US30 rallied 0.98%, led by the jump in energy. The US500 was 0.37% in the green, while the US100 slipped -0.27%. Nikkei and ASX managing slight gains, but China bourses trading narrowly mixed. The Hang Seng underperformed after the US100 closed in the red, with the tech sector not benefiting hugely from the more cautious tone of central banks.
*Commodities – USOil – Saudi’s pledge of its own of 500k reduction was the main driver across assets. USOIL ended with a 6.28% pop to $80.42, up over $80 for the first time since March 6 (just before SVB went under), and the contract is up 10% since last Wednesday.
*Gold – at 5-day support, $1976.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds $27.4k.


Today - European PPI, Canadian Building permits, US Jolts and Factory Orders.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+5.02%). Rallied to 78.50 this morning. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising but RSI flat and Stochastic posted a bearish cross. H1 ATR 0.4139, Daily ATR 0.9496.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.