[Gold]'s spike to $1358.74 on Friday led to a more subdued day today. As we noted in the STU, the spike carried prices to the apex of the previous wave (4) triangle, which is common resistance in a countertrend push. The short term waves allow for another upward push in the coming day or so, which, if it occurs, would lead to a more sizeable pullback. The Large Speculators, now conjoined by the Commercials, hold a record number of futures and options contracts in gold. The Large Specs are record net-long in the total number of contracts purchased while the Commercials are record net-short. The Large Specs are mainly comprised of hedge funds, who are trend-followers. Since this cohort most often gets caught on the wrong side of a trend reversal, when their position size becomes extreme, the odds of a trend change become elevated. When the position is offset by a record net-short by the Commercials (insiders), as it is now, the caution flags wave red and black. The fact that the Large Specs hold a larger position size now than when gold was $600 higher at $1921.50 in September 2011—after just a 36% retracement of the decline from the 2011 peak—confirms that the current advance from December is a bear-market rally. Short term, if gold pushes to a new high this week, the next resistance range is $1380-$1400.