[Gold] made fresh new lows today in a fifth wave. Spot prices declined to $1190.75 this morning, before bouncing a bit thereafter. Today's new lows represent Minute wave v (circle), which, when complete, will mark the end of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (5). Minor wave 2 will be a multi-week countertrend rally. As noted, the other possibility is that a rally will be Minor wave E of (4), but that does not alter our overall forecast in any meaningful way. Gold's bigger-picture bear market does not count complete. A break of $1184.23 would eliminate the wave E possibility.
Now look at the cycle designations on gold's daily chart. During 2014, gold has made a cycle low every 44 trading days. In addition, Minor wave A of Intermediate wave (4) unfolded over 44 trading days. Wave B may be subdivided into 44-45 day sections, as shown. So this particular cycle seems to be governing gold's swings since the Intermediate wave (3) low. Cycles often appear and disappear with no prior warning, so one cannot fashion a forecast based solely on them. But with gold meeting the lower line of a parallel channel from March (see green lines) and with sentiment so extreme (DSI at 5% bulls on Sept. 19), the odds are elevated that a gold rally is nigh. If prices are making lower lows after next Wednesday, we will assess again the potential for a countertrend rally.