Market Brief

[Yousuf Ali]

US economy is full of believers as consumer confidence posted its highest level since January 2008 at 82.3, well above expectations. It fueled stocks investors and overall the USD. However it seems to be proved that EUR/USD pair won't fall at all.

ECB officials were trying to push down the Euro, Mario Draghi who repeated that the bank has tools available if needed. The EUR/USD pair fell throughout the European session from 1.3845 to test nearly 20-day low at 1.3750. But the pair bounced hard at this level and it recovered in just an hour all the previous decline.

The EUR/USD certainly closed negative on the day, but it recovered the 1.3800 area and left a message to the currency market: Think twice about the EUR/USD dovishness. Pair closed the day at 1.3825.

The GBP/USD pair advanced for second day as the cable extended recovery from 1.6455, yesterday low, to close at 1.6530.

The USD/JPY pair moved to a high of 102.50 and a low of 102.10 but it closed unchanged on the day at 102.25.

[Yousuf Ali]

Choppy day in the currency market with the USD advancing against the Euro but declining versus the Sterling. US Stocks performed early gains in the session amid stronger than expected Durable Goods Orders; but it turned negative by mid-session after an Obama speech that warned Russia for further sanctions.

Late in the day, the Federal Reserve published its Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review report. The stress test approved capital plans for 25 out of 30 banks; however, the Fed objected plans for Citigroup, Zion Bancorp and the US units of HSBC, Santander and RBS.

The EURUSD pair declined for second day as the pair lost the 1.3800 level and it closed at 1.3780. Buyers are still waiting around 1.3750 in case of further dips, with the pair mostly confined to range until next week ECB meeting.

The GBPUSD pair advanced for third day to reach 1-week highs around 1.6595, pair closed at 1.6575.

The USDJPY pair declined, however it remained inside the weekly range. The cross priced at 1-week lows around 101.85 but it recovered the 102.00 level where it closed.

[Yousuf Ali]

US economic data came mixed as jobless claims, Kansas manufacturing index and personal consumption rose above expectations but the Q4 GDP was revised ‘only’ to 2.6% from previous estimate of 2.4% while consensus was a growth of 2.7%. Dollar ran against the Euro but declined versus Pound.

All about next week ECB meeting with a trimming rates speculation and March & Q1 rebalancing flows. We should also be mindful of the calendar as March 31st is fiscal year end for many Japanese corporations.

The EUR/USD pair closed the day below the 1.3750 key level; the GBP/USD pair rose for fourth day; the USD/CAD pair posted its fifth negative day in a row while the AUD/USD pair rose for fifth day while the NZD/USD jumped to 2-year highs.

The EUR/USD pair declined for third day to break below the 1.3750 and to reach 1.3725, minimum since March 6. The pair closed around 1.3740. The hourly chart shows price contained below a bearish 20 SMA and indicators flat near oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a clear bearish tone, with immediate support now around 1.3710/20, strong static support as per being the 50% retracement of the latest bullish run.

With the EUR/USD pair below the 1.3750, a breakdown of 1.3722 (50% of 1.3477-1.3967) would target 1.3720 (low Mar6) en route to 1.3707 (low Mar5). On the flip side, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.3825 (21-DMA) followed by 1.3827 (high Mar26) and finally 1.3848 (high Mar25).

[Raam]

Most markets will be closed for the 3-day Easter weekend, assuring low volume and lack of interest in the FX market, which is open.

In the US, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are closed on Friday so is the bond market. In Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange is closed. For energy and metals the Nymex and Comex markets are also closed.

In Europe, some countries close exchanges Friday and Monday due to the Easter holiday, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Also closing Friday and Monday are Australia and Hong Kong stock exchanges.

[ROGER]

The recent Greenback rally found further support Thursday as stronger GDP and Pending Home Sales data offered further insight into the state of economic recovery while worsening Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the Ukraine forced a flight to safety and haven assets.

The Yen pared the USD advance as the Ukraine Security Council convened to draw up fresh plans as negotiations with Russian Separatists in the countries east deteriorated. It seems the rising tension has finally added some volatility to currency markets and forced investors into haven plays leading into the Labour Day long weekend in the US.

The Euro decline continued approaching 11 month lows as concerns surrounding growth prospects and the dampening effect of the Ukrainian/Russian crisis continue to mount. With inflationary data and German retail sales headlining a crowded docket we expect the 18 nation bloc currency to remain under pressure leading into the weekly close.

[rohit]

FX option expiries for May 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC

EUR/USD: 1.1900 (EUR 970m), 1.1950 (246m), 1.2000 (1.3bn), 1.2025 (544m), 1.2050 (239m), 1.2075 (259m), 1.2100 (883m).

GBP/USD: 1.3820-25 (GBP 403m).

USD/JPY: 108.00 (USD 416m), 108.25 (321m), 108.75-85 (1.1bn), 109.00 (592m), 109.25 (250m), 109.50 (756m).

AUD/USD: 0.7550 (AUD 273m), 0.7630 (287m).

USD/CAD: 1.2700 (USD 236m), 1.2800 (545m), 1.2830-40 (419m), 1.2865 (280m), 1.2900 (217m), 1.3000 (322m).

AUD/NZD: 1.0725 (AUD 760m), 1.0825 (531m).

[Ricard Dorman]

FX option expiries for May 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC


GBP/USD: 1.3820-25 (GBP 403m).
.

This level is what? Entry or support or resistant? Can you please explain more?

[russel]

truly, I concede to your perspective on gold, if the fed trims another $10 billion from bond purchasing to $65 billion/month then USD will go insane and gold being an enemy of dollar will see new lows. Good luck to the gold bugs