EUR USD Weekly Outlook

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

QE in the euro-zone seems imminent for the January 22nd meeting, after the euro-zone officially slipped into deflation. Oil prices were clearly to blame. Can the tick up in core prices help? Probably not. Worries about Greece and the tragic terror attack in Paris also weighed in, while the fall in German unemployment was shrugged off. In the US, things are looking OK, with 252K jobs gained in December, but the slip in wages is causing some worries.

1. German WPI: Tuesday, 7:00. The wholesale price index in Europe’s largest economy provides further insight about inflation in the old continent. A rise of 0.2% is expected after the slide of 0.7% beforehand.
2. ECJ decision: Wednesday, during the European morning. The European Court of Justice received the case of the legality of the ECB’s actions from the German Constitutional Court. The wheels of justice move slowly: this case is related to the OMT, introduced in 2012 by the ECB and never used. However, the legality of buying sovereign bonds is more actual than ever, with the ECB on the brink of a QE program. The court is expected to approve the actions of the central bank, or more precisely, not intervene. The ruling still draws attention and volatility.
3. French CPI: Wednesday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy experienced a fall of 0.2% in prices during November, and no change is expected for December. However, price drops could be seen in December due to oil prices. The French report feeds into the final euro-zone read later in the week.
4. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. While we already have the German and French reports at this point, the full publication still rattles markets. Output grew by only 0.1% in October and a similar number is likely for November: no change is expected.
5. Trade Balance: Thursday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a surplus in its trade balance, and this keeps the euro bid. After experiencing a positive figure of 19.4 billion in October, and even wider surplus is on the cards for November: 21.3 billion.
6. German Final CPI: Friday, 7:00. According to the initial publication, Germany saw a significant slowdown in year over year inflation in December: 0.1%. The lowest figure since 2009 will likely be confirmed in the final read.
7. Final inflation numbers: Friday, 10:00. The initial read for the euro-zone was a big blow: a drop of 0.2% in prices year over year in December – an annual deflation in 2014. However, this fall was fueled by oil prices as core prices actually ticked up from 0.7% to 0.8%. Both numbers are expected to be confirmed.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 2-6

EUR/USD managed to stabilize after the Greek elections in the last week of a turbulent month. Has it bottomed out or is gravity here to pull it lower? PMI figures are the highlights of the first week of February. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Anti-austerity SYRIZA swept into power in Greece: while the bank stocks in Athens are suffering, the euro managed to bounce back quite quickly. An advance in German employment and business confidence together with good figures from Spain supported the common currency. However, deflation is deeper than expected, justifying the big QE move, and this includes Germany that opposed the move. In the US, the Fed made little changes in its statement, but did marginally upgrade the wording regarding the economy and job market. Data was mixed with disappointing durable, good jobless claims and a slightly disappointing GDP number. What’s next? Let’s start:

1. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 8:00. The euro-zone’s fourth largest economy suffers from high unemployment, even though it is falling. After a drop of 64.4K jobless in December, a smaller drop is expected for January: 32.4K.
2. Manufacturing PMIs: Monday: Spain at 8:15, Italy at 8:45 and the final manufacturing PMI for the euro-zone at 9:00. According to Markit, Spain enjoyed growth in December with a score of 53.8 points in December and is now expected to print 54.2. Italy’s score was below this number, with 48.4 points and now carried estimations for 49.3The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the whole euro-zone in January stood on 51, reflecting minimal growth. This number will probably be confirmed now.
3. PPI: Tuesday, 10:00. Producer prices dropped by 0.3% in November for a second month in a row. This is another measure of inflation. Another drop is likely for December and it might be more than double: -0.7% is on the cards. Note that Italy releases the CPI data at the same time and prices likely to fall.
4. Services PMIs: Wednesday: Spain at 8:!5, Italy at 8:45 and the final euro-zone number at 9:00. Similar to manufacturing, also here Spain enjoyed growth in December with 54.3 (54.5 predicted now) while Italy was just below the 50 point mark separating growth from contraction, with 49.4 points (expected to edge up to 49.9 points). The initial euro-zone manufacturing PMI for January stood on 52.3 points, and this will likely be confirmed now.
5. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. After Germany reported slower than expected growth in retail sales for December, only 0.2%, expectations are also lower for the all euro-zone number: a drop of 0.1%.
6. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 7:00. The German locomotive is not always at full steam. In November, orders at the factory level dropped by 2.4%, much worse than expected. A rebound is likely this time in this volatile figure. A small tick up is expected to follow: 1.4%.
7. Retail PMI: Thursday, 9:10. The purchasing managers’ index from Markit has shown ongoing contraction. The survey of some 1000 PMs in the continent’s biggest countries slid to 47.6 points in December. A similar number is likely now.
8. German Industrial Production: Friday, 7:00. Complementing the factory orders number, this figure provides a less volatile reading. A disappointing drop of 0.1% was recorded in November and a rise of 0.4% is expected now.
9. French Trade Balance: Friday, 7:45. The euro-zone’s second largest economy saw a smaller than expected trade deficit at 3.2 billion euros. Another squeeze is on the cards for December: 3.1 billion.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 9-13

EUR/USD had an exciting week in which it staged a nice recovery, but eventually lost most of its gains. GDP figures stand out in this week’s trading and Greece will not be too far from the headlines. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


Greece refused to move away from the headlines. Greece’s finance minister is touring European capitals. While smiles are seen on the outside, the decision of the ECB to stop accepting Greek bonds as collateral hurt the country and the euro: some say the chances of a Grexit are higher than in 2012. European figures were OK with improving PMIs. In the US, a streak of bad figures triggered a temporary yet sharp USD sell off. Factory orders were the straw that broke the camel’s back and. However, things changed with a grand finale: a superb NFP report showed 257K jobs gained, upwards revisions and big bounce in wages.

1. German Trade Balance: Monday, 7:00. Germany’s export machine results in a positive trade balance, and this keeps the euro bid. After a surplus of 17.7 billion in November, a rise to 18.2 billion is predicted for December.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This wide survey of 2800 analysts and investors turned positive in January after 4 negative months. The optimism is expected to increase with a rise from 0.9 to 3.4 points in February.
3. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy saw a drop of 0.3% in industrial output during November. The pendulum is expected to swing to the other direction with a rise of 0.3% this time.
4. EU meeting on Greece: Wednesday. The EU has called an extraordinary meeting on February 11th and the only topic on the agenda is Greece. This follows a European tour of Greek FM Yanis Varoufakis, that ended in an acrimonious tone with his German counterpart. On the same day, the waiver of Greek bonds expires at the ECB. Any headlines coming from the meeting are set to rock the euro, especially those from the German representatives.
5. German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. Germany is also in deflation according tot he initial data for January. The m/m fall of 1% will likely be confirmed now. This deflation justifies the ECB’s QE that Germany is opposed to.
6. Industrial Production: Thursday, 10:00. While the data is published after French and German data is out, this number still has an impact. A gain of 0.3% is likely in December after a similar rise of 0.2% in November.
7. Preliminary GDP: Friday: France at 6:30, Germany at 7:00, Italy at 9:00 and the whole euro-zone at 10:00. These are the preliminary numbers for Q4. The French economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 after a revised down contraction of 0.1% in Q2. These not-very impressing numbers are expected to continue with a growth rate of only 0.1% in the last quarter of the year. Germany isn’t doing much better: its economy also escaped recession, and only just: a growth rate of 0.1% was recorded in Q3 after a squeeze of 0.2% beforehand. A stronger growth rate of 0.3% is on the cards now. The third largest economy in the euro-area, Italy, is suffering a recession lasting 3 quarters. After a drop of 0.1% in Q3, a flat read is on the cards now. Spain stood out by reporting strong growth. The numbers from the fourth largest economy were already published. For the whole of the euro-zone a growth rate of 0.2% is estimated for the last quarter of 2014, just like Q3.
8. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 7:45. While the focus si on the GDP figures, France is expected to report a drop of 0.1% in jobs for Q4, slower than 0.2% seen in Q2.
9. Trade Balance: Friday, 10:00. Thanks to Germany, but not only this country, the zone enjoys a surplus. after a positive 20 billion in November, we could see a wider surplus of 21.3 billion now.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 16-20

EUR/USD traded in a narrow range for long periods, a feat unseen for a long time, but eventually made a nice move higher. Greece remains in the limelight, but we also have the first ECB meeting minutes, PMIs and other events to move the common currency. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


Greece was left, front and center. Tough rhetoric was heard from both sides around the Eurogroup meeting. Greece seems to be willing to compromise on some aspects but still wants a change in debt repayment. Germany seems willing only to change the word “troika” but offers a tough stance. This might change after elections in Hamburg. Data continued beating expectations, with strong German growth standing out. Is the weaker euro already bearing fruit? In the US, the strength that followed the NFP faded when both retail sales and consumer confidence disappointed.

1. Eurogroup meetings: Monday. This is an ordinary meeting of the euro-zone finance ministers, contrary to the extraordinary one. Officially, this is the last opportunity for Greece to ask for an extension of the bailout that expires at the end of the month, yet another deadline. Will Germany show more compassion after the Hamburg state elections already belong to the past? Any headlines coming out of Brussels will rock the euro. It’s important to note that negotiations are probably going on through the weekend.
2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday, 11:00. Germany’s central bank publishes monthly assessments of the local and euro-zone economies, talking about inflation, employment and growth. Recently, forecasts have been upgraded, with some building on the weakness of the euro. Will we see some optimism from the conservative institution?
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. This early publication of the mood in Germany’s business community. In the past 3 months, the 275 strong survey has been on the rise, reaching 48.4 points in January. Another tick up is likely for the month of February, to 56.2. The all-European number is also due to rise from 45.2 points to 51.3 this time.
4. French CPI: Thursday, 7:45. The continent’s second largest economy has seen a gain of 0.1% in prices for the month of December, but is now set to plunge 0.9%.. Its publication for January feeds into the final all-European number. The preliminary release showed deeper deflation in the euro area.
5. Current Account: Thursday, 9:00. The total balance of payments in the euro-zone remains positive, led by Germany. This supports the common currency. After a surplus of 18.1 billion in November, a slightly higher number is on the cards for December: 23.3 billion.
6. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. The European Central Bank publishes minutes from the meeting for the first time ever. This was in discussions for a long time, as members tried to maintain a balance between speaking freely and providing transparency. The minutes are not expected to include names and/or countries of who said what, but rather a Fed style mention of “a few”, “some”, etc., in order to reflect the various opinions. Nevertheless, it is no secret that German members opposed the decision on QE that was made in the last meeting. This was stated by them and Draghi made clear there was no unanimous decision on this topic. It will be interesting to see how the members of the Governing Council see the economies of the euro-zone.
7. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 15:00. This official Eurostat survey of 2300 consumers surprised with an advance to -9 points in December, better than the -10 to -12 range seen beforehand. This is probably a result of lower oil prices and perhaps the holiday season. A similar number is expected now: -8 points.
8. German PPI: Friday, 7:00. Europe’s locomotive has seen depressed producer prices for quite some time. A big drop of 0.7% was seen in December, and a smaller drop is on the cards now: -0.3%.
9. Flash PMIs: Friday: France at 8:00, Germany at 8:30 and the whole euro-zone at 9:00. These are preliminary numbers for February. According to Markit’s forward looking indices, France is still in contraction zone with 49.2 points in manufacturing and 49.5 in services. This is below the 50 point threshold separating growth and contraction and only minor improvements are predicted now: 49.7 and 49.9 respectively. Germany is experiencing minimal growth in manufacturing, with 50.9 points and somewhat stronger expansion in the services sector with 52.7 points. Manufacturing is predicted to rise to 51.8 and services to 54.3. The whole euro-zone is seeing numbers similar to Germany’s: 51 in manufacturing and 52.3 in services. Advances to 51.6 and 53.2 are on the cards now.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Mar. 9-13

EUR/USD was hit hard in the first week of March diving deep below 1.10. The strong US data and a determined Draghi took a heavy toll. What’s next? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


Draghi revealed details about QE, which starts on March 9th. And while the ECB raised some forecasts, the president made clear that these depend on QE implementation. He also left the door open to extending the program beyond September 2016. Euro-zone data came out generally better than expected: inflation fell by only 0.3%, German retail sales beat and Spanish employment is improving. In the US, data was upbeat as well: the US gained 295K jobs in February, beating expectations. A disappointment came from wages, which are stuck once again. Nevertheless, the dollar just continued advancing against the euro, breaching some interesting historical lines. What’s next?

1. Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings: Monday and Tuesday respectively. News from Greece went to the back burner after a 4 month extension was agreed upon. However, the nature of a short extension is that the topic of the debt stricken country never goes too far. A repayment to the IMF is one of the topics on the agenda, as well as the implementation of reforms Greece presented.
2. German Trade Balance: Monday, 8:00. The German export machine creates a big trade surplus that has recently advanced to 21.8 billion euros. Another advance is on the cards now: 22.3 billion.
3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This 2800 strong survey has beat expectations and entered positive ground back in January. Another rise is expected from the 12.4 points recorded in February: 15.3 points in March according to predictions. A positive number reflects optimism.
4. French Industrial Production: Europe’s second largest economy enjoyed a bounce in industrial output during the month of December: 1.5%. Expectations remain upbeat for French industry: a rise of 0.8% is likely.
5. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 6:30. The French job market has seen some signs of recovery if we look at jobless claims, but Q3 saw no change in the overall NFP. For the fourth quarter, no change in overall jobs is expected once again.
6. German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. Germany reported milder than expected falls in prices in the initial report for February, and this resulted in milder deflation for the whole euro-zone. The numbers will likely be confirmed now.
7. French CPI: Thursday, 7:45. France has seen a big fall in prices in January: a full 1% m/m. The figure for February is expected to show a bounce back up of 0.6%, in line with data seen in other countries. The number feeds into the final EZ report for this month due in the following week.
8. Industrial Production: Thursday, 10:00. Output in the zone’s third largest economy remained flat in December. A rise is on the cards now: +0.3%. Germany enjoyed a gain of 0.6%.
9. German WPI: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale price index is another measure of inflation. After a fall of 0.4% in January, a more moderate slide of 0.2% is now estimated.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Mar. 16-20

EUR/USD just continued falling and falling, nearing levels last seen almost 12 years ago. Some inflation figures, a German survey and another TLTRO round are the main events. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


There were various factors weighing on EUR/USD. The ECB began its QE program as planned, Greece returned to the headlines and the dollar kept storming forward. The implementation of QE seems to be swift, as the central bank finds no shortage of bonds to buy. Some profit taking and weak US retail sales helped the pair stabilize, but many suspect this is only a pause on the way down to parity.

1. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday. The German central bank publishes a monthly report detailing the situation of the local economy and the outlook. Germany seems to be doing well with strong growth and falling unemployment, but this did not stop the euro on its way down.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 18:45. The president of the ECB weighed on the euro in a conference even though he didn’t say anything new. He has another chance to rock markets, speaking in Frankfurt. However, the topic is the finance industry, so he might decide to refrain from monetary policy.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. This 275 strong survey rose once again in February, but slightly less than expected. Will we see confidence eroding after 4 consecutive climbs? The early indicator for March carries quite a lot of weight. The all European figure stood on a similar 52.7 points.
4. Final CPI: Tuesday, 10:00. The initial data for February showed less deflation than expected, at -0.3%. The stabilization in oil prices helped. However, core CPI remained at 0.6%. Both numbers will likely be confirmed. The ECB made it clear that its upbeat forecasts are based on full implementation of its programs: QE will not stop so fast.
5. Employment Change: Tuesday, 10:00. The old continent saw a gain of 0.2% in total employment during the third quarter. Another gain is likely for the fourth one. Note that this is lagging data in comparison to the monthly unemployment rate, which has ticked down to 11.2%.
6. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00 .The euro area enjoys a surplus in its balance, a fact that has kept the euro bid during long periods of time. December saw +23.3 billion, and we could now read a slightly lower number.
7. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. This detailed economic report is now released only two weeks after the rate decision. We have seen a determined Draghi on March 5th. This eventually pushed the euro below 1.10. We will now see why the central bank is determined to carry on with QE.
8. Targeted LTRO: Thursday, 10:15. The ECB has already made two targeted loan installments, resulting in 82.6 billion in September and nearly 130 million in December. More money into the system should help the real economy, according to the central bank. For the euro, more loans mean potentially less QE, and this could be positive. Less loans could weigh on the currency.
9. German PPI: Friday, 7:00. Producer prices dropped by 0.6% in January, after 0.7% in December. For February, we could see a more stable outcome. This adds to the inflation picture.
10. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. Hand in hand with trade balance, the wider measure also shows a significant surplus, even though it squeezed in December to 17.8 billion. A similar figure is likely now.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Mar. 30 – Apr. 3

EUR/USD continued its upside run, tackling the 1.10 level but struggling with the highs and eventually closing close to levels seen in the previous week. The upcoming week features inflation numbers and more PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Better than expected German manufacturing PMI helped the euro, and so did the better than expected German IFO business climate. Draghi repeated this regular messages and made an effort not to rock the boat. In the US, inflation beat expectations and so did new home sales. These and some hawkish comments halted the dollar’s dive, but the greenback still suffered from some weak data, namely durable goods orders.

1. German CPI: Monday, states report during the day, final figure at 12:00. After a big plunge in January, the consolidation of oil prices sent German CPI up 0.9% m/m. Nevertheless, Germany is not really out of the deflation zone y/y. A small rise of 0.4% is expected m/m in the preliminary number for March.
2. Spanish Flash CPI: Monday, 7:00. The zone’s fourth largest economy has seen y/y falls for long months. In February, the level of deflation softened to fall of 1.1%. The fall in Spanish prices helps its real growth amid dropping nominal output. A smaller drop in prices is on the cards now: 1% y/y.
3. German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 6:00. The locomotive of the euro-zone enjoyed a jump of 2.9% in sales for the month of January. A small slide of 0.9% is on the cards now in this volatile yet important figure.
4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. Europe’s second largest economy has seen three consecutive months of beating expectations. After a rise of 0.6% in January, a more modest rise is expected for February: 0.3%.
5. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 7:55. The German locomotive has enjoyed 5 months of drops in unemployment. A big drop of 20K unemployed maintained the unemployment rate at a low 6.5%. Another small drop is expected for February, of 10K jobless.
6. CPI Flash Estimate: Tuesday, 9:00. The euro-zone still experienced deflation in February, but less than expected at 0.3% in February. Core inflation edged up to 0.7% in the final read, providing some hope. The initial numbers for March are expected to be similar: a drop of 0.3% in headline y/y CPI and a rise of 0.6% in core CPI. Expectations may change after the German numbers are released.
7. Unemployment Rate: Tuesday, 9:00. The unemployment rate in the euro-zone began dropping in recent months after being stuck for too long at 11.5%. After 11.2% reported in January, the same number is predicted for February.
8. Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday: Spain at 7:15, Italy at 7:45 and the final all euro-zone number at 8:00. Spain has seen its manufacturing PMI fall to 54.2 points, still indicating OK growth. It could tick up for March. Italy enjoyed stronger growth with 51.9 points, and another advance is likely now. According to the preliminary numbers for March, the all euro-zone figure rose to 51.9 points, mostly thanks to German strength. This will probably be confirmed now.
9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. In its March meeting, Draghi reaffirmed the commitment to QE and weighed on the euro despite raising forecasts. This complication means that the meeting minutes from the event, released for the second time, will probably be very interesting. Have the German members objected the implementation of QE?

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 6-10

EUR/USD began the new quarter with a slide but emerged as a winner, mostly due to USD weakness. The upcoming week features inflation data from Germany and some more PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


The important euro-zone data beat expectations, with a squeeze in deflation and upbeat German job data. This didn’t help the euro initially as the end-of-quarter adjustments favored the greenback. In the US, a week that began with some positive figures ended with a very disappointing jobs report, that cast doubts on the next moves of the Fed. What’s ahead after Easter?

1. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 7:00. While many members in the old continent still observe Easter, the zone’s fourth largest country releases the monthly change in the number of the jobless. After a slide of 13.5K in February, a bigger drop of 18.3K is expected now. Spain has one of the highest levels of unemployment.
2. Services PMIs: Tuesday: Spain at 7:15, Italy at 7:45 and the final euro-zone figure for March at 8:00. Markit’s purchasing managers’ indices for services sector mostly showed growth in February, and this is set to continue with scores above 50 points once again. Spain is expected to see its strong growth continue with a rise from 56.2 to 56.5. Italian services are predicted to pick up with a rise from 50 to 51.1 points and the final services PMI for the whole euro-zone is likely to confirm the initial positive read of 54.3 points.
3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Tuesday, 8:30. This wide survey of 2800 analysts and investors beat expectations for 4 consecutive months. After hitting 18.6 points in March, a score of 20.9 is predicted for April.
4. PPI: Tuesday, 9:00. Purchasing prices fell sharply in January: 0.9%. A very small bounce of +0.1% is on the cards for February, a month that saw oil prices stabilize.
5. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. While this is quite a volatile number, it still has a significant impact. Orders in Europe’s No. 1 economy fell by 3.9% in January, and have likely advanced 1.5% in February.
6. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 6:45. The continent’s second largest economy suffers from trade deficits for quite a long time. However, these are shrinking in recent months together with the weaker euro. For February, a deficit of 3.8 billion euros is on the cards, a similar level to January.
7. Retail PMI: Wednesday, 8:10. This indicator of the retail sector refuses to return to growth territory. It stood on 46.4 points in February, and isn’t likely to top the 50 point mark this time.
8. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 9:00. Even though German sales numbers are already published, this release tends to surprise and move markets. We had three 4 months of growth in sales. After +1.1% in January, a small slide of 0.1% is on the cards for February.
9. Greek payment to IMF due: Thursday. Greece is in a shortage of cash and is still at odds with its creditors. As time passes by since the February 20th agreement, Greece still has to pay its debt. At the moment, there is optimism that it will fulfill its obligations and the Greek crisis is still on the sidelines. However, if it misses its payment, the move would mark a dangerous turn of events.
10. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:00. This indicator is somewhat less volatile than factory orders. After a rise of 0.6% in January, a slower growth rate of 0.1% is expected for February in the euro-zone’s locomotive.
11. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Germany traditionally enjoys a trade surplus and this has been floating around 20 billion euros lately. After +19.7 billion in January, a positive number of 20.3 is forecast for February.
12. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45. The second core country also enjoyed growth in industrial output in January: +0.4%. A minimal slide of 0.1% is expected for February.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 13-17

EUR/USD had a hangover after Easter and it retreated from the higher range.The ECB meeting is the big event of the week, but not the only one Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


Worries about Greece’s ability to pay the IMF didn’t peter out even as Greece paid. Worries about the country’s finances persist. This was coupled with not-so-good data from Germany for a change. The US data released after the NFP was already better, with a good read for the services sector. This helped the greenback recover, together. Yet the FOMC minutes sparked the greenback comeback as markets focused on the talk about a hike in June, ignoring the fact that it represented only a few members’ opinions and that the meeting was held well before the weak NFP. The result was a plunge of the pair under 1.06. Will it now challenge the 12 year lows?

1. German Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:00. The first read of March CPI inflation showed a rise of 0.5% m/m in prices, more than expected. This will likely be confirmed now.
2. French CPI: Wednesday, 6:45. The continent’s second largest economy saw a rebound of 0.7% in prices in February. The figure for March will likely show the same rise of 0.7%.
3. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 9:00. This time, data is released for both January and February. In December, the surplus released 21.3 billion, driven mostly by German exports. Similar figures are expected for the first two months of 2015, also because of the weak euro: above 20 billion.
4. Rate Decision: Wednesday, decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. In the last meeting by the ECB in early March, Draghi showed determination in implementing the QE program announced in January. Implementation has begun and it is going well. The Bank made it clear that success of the euro-zone in general and particularly regarding inflation depends on full implementation. Will he continue the same determination? If so, the euro would feel the weight. If optimism rises due to the recent signs of growth, we could see the common currency rise. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.05% with a negative deposit rate of 0.20%. The latter serves as the lower bar for buying bonds in the QE program.
5. Current Account: Friday, 8:00. Similar to the trade balance, also the current account enjoys the lower exchange rate. A surplus of 29.4 billion was recorded in January. A similar figure is expected now: 27.4 billion.
6. Final CPI: Friday, 9:00. The initial read for March showed that prices fell 0.1% in the headline number, better than expected but still deflationary. Core inflation stood at 0.6% and that isn’t too encouraging. These numbers are expected to be confirmed, but surprises are not uncommon.

* All times are GMT

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 20-24

EUR/USD managed to stage a nice recovery, mostly thanks to the US dollar’s weakness. Can it continue higher? German surveys, PMIs and yet another discussion on Greece stand out this week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.


The ECB made no changes and also made it clear that it is too early to talk about QE tapering or any change to the deposit rate. The determination to push on with easing despite improving conditions was euro negative on its own, but far from being enough to keep the pair down. The US dollar experienced a series of disappointing figures from retail sales, industrial output, housing data and more. A spring bounce in the US is still awaited. Dollar bulls can cling to the better consumer confidence number for April. And in Europe, can the improvement beat the central bank?

1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 8:00. This 275 strong survey continued rising in the last two months, but fell short of expectations. The rise in optimism is slowing down. After ticking up marginally to 54.8 points in March, a slightly stronger number is expected now: 56 points. The all-European figure carries expectations of 63.7 points.
2. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. In the past three months, consumers have shown more confidence, with the score hitting -4 in February. Nevertheless, the negative number still implies pessimism. Another rise is on the cards now, to -3 points.
3. Spanish unemployment rate: Thursday, 7:00. The zone’s fourth largest economy suffers from extremely high unemployment levels. In Q4, the economy saw a rate of 23.7%. A small drop to 23.5% is expected now, in the country that has obeyed all the EU demands.
4. Flash PMIs: Thursday, France at 7:00, Germany at 7:30 and the whole euro-zone at 8:00. France, the second largest economy, saw its manufacturing still in contraction territory, under 50 points in March at 48.8 points and is predicted to tick up to 49.4 points in in April. Services stood at 52.4, reflecting modest growth and a similar score of 52.5 points is on the cards. Germany enjoy modest growth at 52.8 points in its manufacturing sector and 55.4 points in the services sector – more solid growth. Advances to 53.1 and 55.6 respectively are estimated. The whole euro-zone’s numbers according to Markit stood on 52.2 for manufacturing and 55.4 for services. These are likely to tick up to 52.6 and 54.5, marginally higher.
5. Eurogroup meetings on Greece: Friday. The finance ministers of the euro-zone meet in Riga this time and Greece is high on the agenda. Negotiations between the debt stricken country and its partners / creditors are not moving fast since the February 20th accord. Various reforms are not agreed upon as money continues to trickle out of the country and as more payments are due. Defaulting on IMF payments is an option mentioned and denied several times. On the other hand, an agreement may be agreed, and even if one isn’t reached, there are always more deadlines in the euro-zone.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. Germany’s conservative think-tank surveys no less that 7000 businesses. It exceeded expectations last time with the headline number reaching 107.9 in March. A small rise is on the cards now, to 108.5 points.
7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Friday, 13:00. This leading indicator has improved of late, reaching -6.3 points. However, getting rid of that minus sign could take more time. Another improvement is likely in this 6000 strong survey: -5.8 points.

* All times are GMT