EUR/USD

[ForexSignalses]

EUR/USD continues to perform limited excite this week. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1203, occurring 0.03%. Its a shy daylight on the order of the subject of the forgive front, so traders should not expect much society from the pair concerning the order of Tuesday. German factory orders posted a profit of 0.6%, ending a nasty streak of four straight declines. However, this reading was shy of the estimate of 1.6%. The EU released its economic forecasts of lover states. In the U.S., the emphasize is JOLTS Jobs Openings. On Wednesday, Germany releases industrial production and the ECB releases the minutes of its April policy meeting.

The week started behind sure economic data, but the euro was unchanged regarding Monday. Eurozone facilities PMI have been stronger than manufacturing PMI and continued to reduction to encourage in April. German services PMI bigger to 55.7, just above the estimate of 55.6. This marked the strongest score past September. The eurozone general pardon dipped to 52.8, but still annoyance the predict of 52.5. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence jumped to 5.3, swiftly above the estimate of 1.1. As once ease, retail sales slowed to 0.0%, above the estimate of -0.1%.

With the eurozone continuing to totaling lukewarm data, the ECB is in no hurry to fine-heavens its monetary policy. Rate-setters are in a dovish setting, and the bank recently declared that it had no plans to lift rates prior to the spring of March 2020. The U.S. economy is in much-improved touch, but the Federal Reserve has shifted to dovish stance hence in the isolate afield this year. At last weeks rate meeting, Fed seat Powell said that rate moves could go either mannerism. Economic data will be in a major factor in what viewpoint rates change. Recent numbers have looked hermetically sealed GDP for Q1 jumped 3.2%, and nonfarm payrolls were hurriedly hermetic in April. If this sure trend continues, the Fed could lift rates subsequent to this year, and the divergence subsequent to the ECB would likely boost the dollar, at the euro's expense.

[ForexSignalses]

EUR/USD started the week taking into account cause offense losses but has steadied as regards Wednesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1203, going on 0.01% on the order of the hours of daylight. On the attainable stomach, first-quarter GDP reports for Germany and the eurozone matched their forecasts. The U.S. will reprieve consumer spending reports for July, gone the markets braced for weaker numbers. Retail sales are projected slow to 0.2%, the length of from 1.6% in the previous forgive. Core retail sales are projected to slip to 0.7%, compared to 1.2% in March. On Thursday, the eurozone releases trade description, even if the U.S. posts building permits, unemployment claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

There was in agreement news from first-quarter GDP data in the eurozone. German Preliminary GDP is greater than before to 0.4%, after a flat zero reading in the third quarter. In the eurozone, Flash GDP as well as climbed to 0.4%, going on from 0.2% in Q1. Is the economic slowdown on the pinnacle of in the eurozone? It's too old-fashioned to declare, but if key indicators follow deed and head upwards, sentiment towards the eurozone will add taking place and likely boost the euro.

On Tuesday, ZEW economic sentiment surveys for Germany and the euro zone missed the mark, as both posted declines. The German comprehensible over and ended amid a long streak of declines in April, when a obtain of 3.1. The indicator slipped to 2.1 in May, pointing to pessimism. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment posted a fadeaway of 1.6 in May, after a score of 4.5 in April. The ZEW surveys indicate that institutional investors and analysts are panicky roughly the economic outlooks for the eurozone and Germany. The manufacturing sectors have been particularly weakened, as the trade deed amid China and the U.S. has escalated considering substitute round of tariffs in the midst of the sides. The U.S. has raised tariffs harshly $200 billion in Chinese goods, and the neighboring step could direction tariffs upon European vehicles which are produced in China. This could spell cause problems for the huge European auto industry, as the tariffs would lift the prices of German and French vehicles.

[ForexSignalses]

EUR/USD has started the accessory trading week quietly. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1161, going on 0.03% gone mention to the daylight. On the reprieve stomach, there is no major behavior, so traders can expect the pair to continue to drift in the Monday session. German PPI gained 0.5% when two successive declines. Later in the daylight, eurozone trade adjoin is traditional to statute a surplus of EUR 24.2 billion, the length of from EUR 26.8 billion a month earlier. On Tuesday, the eurozone releases consumer confidence and the U.S. posts existing rest sales.

The euro drifting some pitch last week, but there were shiny signs in Germany and the eurozone, as GDP and inflation headed upwards. German Preliminary GDP enlarged to 0.4% in the first quarter, after a flat zero reading in Q4 of 2018. In the eurozone, Flash GDP as well as climbed to 0.4% in the first quarter, going on from 0.2% in Q4. On the inflation stomach, inflation indicators impressed, subsequent to intelligent gains in April. Final CPI climbed 1.7%, matching the predict. This was happening tersely from 0.8% in March. Final Core CPI rose 1.3%, edging above the estimate of 1.2%. This marked the strongest endure on past March 2013. The ECB recently confirmed that it had no plans to lift join up rates prior to the spring of 2020, but if GDP and inflation numbers continue to cumulative, the ECB could raise rates earlier than this timeline.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an issue vis--vis the order of Monday, and there are a dozen Fed speakers at various venues during the week. Still, investors don't expect to listen to all addendum from the Fed, which has said that the adjacent rate impinge on could acquit yourself either dispensation. The markets have priced in a rate scrape highly developed this year, and some analysts are predicting a second rate scuff since 2020. This could yield to dampen promptness for the sound U.S. dollar, as rate cuts would make the greenback less interesting to investors.

[rohit]

Euro Holds Steady after EU Election Results, Pound Ticks Higher



The euro was holding steady on Monday after the results of European Union parliamentary elections showed that pro-EU parties held on to two-thirds of seats, limiting the gains of their euro skeptic opponents.
EUR/USD was little changed at 1.1199 by 03:31 AM ET (07:31 GMT), close to one-and-a-half week highs, having pulled away from Thursday’s two-year trough of 1.1105.
While center-right and center-left blocs are losing their shared majority, surges in the Greens and liberals meant parties committed to strengthening the union held on to two-thirds of seats, official projections showed.
The results dented the hopes of anti-immigration, anti-Brussels National Rally led by Marine Le Pen, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and others who have been opposing attempts to forge closer EU integration.
“The often-feared rise of EU-skeptical parties has not materialized,” Bert Colijn, senior Eurozone economist at ING said in a note. “The gains are simply too small and it does not look like the parties are set to unite themselves more than they did in the previous parliament.”
Trade remained thin on Monday amid market holidays in the U.K. and the U.S.
The dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.25% to 109.54 underpinned by Japanese players' bargain-hunting.
Buying interest from Japanese investors is strong when the dollar dips near 109 yen, said Mitsuo Imaizumi, chief currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.
"Data shows Japanese investors bought a large amount of foreign bonds a few weeks ago when the dollar fell near 109 yen. There's demand from Japanese companies that need dollar for their M&A deals," he said.
The dollar index ticked up to 97.532, remaining below the two-year high of 98.260 reached last Thursday.
The greenback was pressured lower late last week as weak U.S. economic data fueled fears that the escalating trade and tech war between the U.S. and China is hitting growth.
The pound was slightly higher against the dollar, with GBP/USD up 0.1% to 1.2727, having regained some ground after Prime Minister Theresa May announced a date for her departure, rebounding from the four-and-a-half month low of 1.2605 reached on Thursday.
But the prospect of a no-deal Brexit was fast becoming the central battle of the race among contenders to succeed May, with four of eight leadership hopefuls having said Britain must leave the EU on Oct. 31 even if no deal is in place.
Sterling was almost unchanged against the euro, with EUR/GBP trading at 0.8798.

[Equidious Research]

EUR/USD is stable around 1.1200 amid mixed EU elections in which main parties lost ground to both centrist and extreme ones. Trump said he hopes for a deal with China. Liquidity is thin due to a UK holiday.

[ForexSignalses]

EUR/USD has ticked lower in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1151, then to 0.08% going taking place for the day. In economic news, French GDP and consumer inflation were within expectations. German unemployment rolls swelled by 60 thousand, much on zenith of the estimate of -8 thousand. The ECB released its financial stability financial credit, which is published twice a year. In the U.S., the sole issue is the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which is projected to climb to 6 points. On Thursday, the U.S. releases GDP and unemployment claims.

The German economy has been showing signs of illness, but the labor serve has remained a brilliant spot. However, unemployment rolls ballooned by 60 thousand in April, surprising the markets. The indicator has recorded consecutive declines for on the subject of two years, and investors are hoping that the April spike was a one-period blip. If upcoming German employment numbers follow dogfight and miss expectations, the euro could lose a pitch.

As the locomotive of the eurozone economy, German indicators are a bellwether for the perch of the eurozone. Consumer confidence took a hit in May, as GfK Consumer Climate slipped to 10.1 points, the length of from 10.4 in April. This was the lowest score back in April 2017. With the escalation in U.S-China trade tensions, there is no fall in sight to the tariffs which have been imposed coarsely European goods, which has dampened consumer confidence. Well, profit heavens at the health of consumer spending upon Thursday, gone Germany releases retail sales. After a decrease of 0.2% in April, the markets are expecting a rebound in May, subsequent to a forecast of 0.4%.

[rohit]

Dollar snaps 3-day losing streak as Fed minutes eyed

The dollar snapped a three-day losing streak against rivals on Tuesday thanks to gains in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen but remained trapped within well-worn ranges before the release of minutes from the latest U.S. central bank meeting.
At its end-October policy meeting, the Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year, and hedge funds have ramped up bearish bets versus the dollar in the last three weeks in anticipation of more greenback weakness.
Waning hopes of a preliminary trade deal between the United States and China have also weighed on the dollar, knocking it from a one-month high tested last week.


LOW VOLATILITY
Despite the gains, the dollar and the broader currency complex remained mired within recent trading ranges. Deutsche Bank estimates that currency market volatility for the major G10 currency pairs is at its lowest levels in 45 years.
Against the dollar, the major G10 currencies are on track for an average annual range of nearly 8.5%, compared to a post Bretton Woods range of 15.2% and a peak of 30.7% in 2008.
A period of low inflation, limited changes to central bank policies and a concerted push by global policymakers to stem any negative pressures in global markets have all contributed to this ultra-low period of financial market volatility.
Elsewhere, Australia's central bank agreed "a case could be made" for another cut to its 0.75% cash rate at its November meeting given unwelcome weakness in wages growth and inflation, minutes published on Tuesday showed.
The Australian dollar fell 0.16% to $0.6799 and declined 0.26% to 73.82 yen . Sterling held firm around $1.2950 with the pound buoyed by polls pointing to a victory by the ruling Conservatives in upcoming elections.
In the onshore market, the yuan fell to a two-week low of 7.0295 per dollar.

[sufiyan]

All my psyche was that eurusd will come done for this present week, after the enduring fall it had since over one month prior, I believed that it will currently regard some conservation a piece before it will return to the pattern. In any case, things are not resembling that now, the pair is presently descending intensely, and I imagine that its sibling gbpusd will tail it unexpectedly early. I imagine that market is encountering a solid usd for the time being, we should regard that as opposed to letting our record to be destroyed as a result of the presence of mind that eurusd or gbpusd will rise.

[Vichu]

Dollar slides in flows-driven market
Investors await U.S. debate


Options-related flows bet on dollar downside
Focus on 1st U.S. presidential debate
Dollar could rise if Trump improves chances.


The dollar on Tuesday fell from last week's two-month highs, weighed down by currency flows in the options market as well as for month end, with investors also capitalizing on recent gains in the greenback ahead of the first debate between two U.S. presidential candidates.
The euro/yen options have pulled euro/dollar higher.
Some analysts also said investors may also be taking profits on recent dollar gains ahead of the first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
The 90-minute televised debate at 9 p.m. EDT (0100 GMT) will be watched by investors looking for guidance on the candidates' prospects.


Tuesday - before the event. In mid-morning trading, the dollar index fell 0.3% to 93.901 , after hitting a two-month peak on Friday.
The greenback also added to losses, as investors felt a little more confident getting out of the safe-haven currency after data showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded more than expected in September, as households' views of the labor market improved.
The euro firmed across the board, rising 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1727 and 0.6% versus the yen to 123.84 yen.
European Central Bank policymakers are increasingly divided over how to steer Europe's economy through a second wave of COVID-19 infections.
The dollar fell to a one-week low against the Swiss franc and was last down 0.5% at 0.92 franc .
Markets were also waiting for developments in talks over aid for people affected by the coronavirus in the United States. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday Democratic lawmakers were unveiling a new $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, which she said was a compromise and less costly as it covers a shorter period of time.
Sterling, meanwhile, rose on hopes for a Brexit deal and the Bank of England's deputy governor saying he thought the floor for the central bank's key interest rate was 0.1%.
The pound was last up 0.4% at $1.2883.

[SandraTrader]

The dollar has been falling, and the EUR/USD pair has been rising accordingly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last March. And now it is no longer far from its Q1 2018 highs. True, the result of the last three weeks can be considered zero. And the blame is not only the Christmas and New Year holidays, but also the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, coupled with the hawkish statements of the Fed representatives.
After the certification of President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year-old American Treasuries skyrocketed, pulling the dollar with it. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the growth in Treasury yields confirms the desire of investors to see higher interest rates on USD, and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, predicted that the curtailment of the QE program could begin in the second half of 2021. All this sharply reduced the appetite of the bulls, who began to close long positions in EUR/USD, as a result of which the pair ended the week at 1.2225.
As for the near future, 60% of experts hope that this January will become, if not a month of trend reversal, then at least a sufficiently deep correction of the pair to the south, which will return it to the level of 1.2050, or even 1.1900. The nearest support is in the 1.2100 zone. However, as for the indicators, this development was supported by only 80% of indicators on H4. On D1, both oscillators and trend indicators have taken a neutral position.
40% of analysts side with the bulls, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to them, the pair, having pushed back from 1.2200, should return to the uptrend, and we will soon see it at 1.2350. And then 1.2500 is not far off.
As for the events of the coming week, of interest are the data on the US consumer market, which will be published on Wednesday January 13 and Friday January 15. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to make a speech at the end of the working week, and the market will wait whether he confirms the words of his colleagues Thomas Barkin and Patrick Harker regarding a possible increase in interest rates and curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program.
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