02-12-2019, 09:28 PM
EUR/USD leaps to 1.1300, added daily highs
The pair reverts the initial pessimism and moves to session tops.
About of USD-selling sent DXY to well-ventilated daily lows in sub-97.00 levels.
US NFIB index drops to 101.2, lowest in Trump administration.
After recording spacious 2019 lows in the 1.1260/55 in advance on trade, EUR/USD managed to regain some traction via USD-complaint and is now flirting gone daily highs near 1.1300 the figure.
EUR/USD bolstered by USD-selling, risk
The spot is consolidating the bullish attempt after falling as low as the vicinity of 1.1250, always tracking the bend of heart in the risk-amalgamated perplexing, particularly in recognition to rising hopes of a probable US-China trade bargain.
In appendage going on, yesterdays concurrence in the US diplomatic arena is traditional to prevent other supervision shutdown and is as well as propping occurring the upbeat setting in the global markets.
In the US docket, the NFIB index dropped to the lowest level by now Trump assumed office, even if December JOLTs Job Openings and the API relation are due highly developed. In colleague in crime, Feds J.Powell and KC Fed E.George are due to speak.
What to see for happening for EUR/USD
Both the ECB and European Commission are now confirming the slowdown in the euro bloc once their recently revised projections for economic gold and inflation, acknowledging at the same time that the ongoing deceleration in nitty-gritty could be longer than normal. Adding to this description, Germany could have likely entered into recession in Q4, even if the apparent recovery in the autos sector in recent months would not be sufficient to spark the rapid rebound in the first economy of the bloc. In adviser, diplomatic concerns remain dexterously and hermetically sealed when the recent Italy-France quarrel bearing in mind the orangey-vests in center stage ahead of the key EU parliamentary elections in May. All in all, it seems the begin of the ECB tightening cycle has to wait longer within the current have the funds for in of things in the region and abroad, leaving in by now EUR exposed to a bumpy road ahead and prone to auxiliary sickness.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is interesting 0.17% at 1.1294 facing the with-door hurdle at 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November slip) seconded by 1.1386 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1420 (100-day SMA). On the subsidiary hand, a crack knocked out 1.1257 (2019 low Feb.12) would mean 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).
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02-17-2019, 05:15 PM
EUR/USD recovers above 1.13 as greenback loses strength
Mixed data from the U.S. weighs roughly the greenback.
Trade surplus narrows in the euro place.
EUR/USD looks to finish the second straight week in the red.
The EUR/USD pair slumped to its lowest level back mid-November at 1.1235 earlier in the day as the rising US T-grip yields boosted the demand for the greenback and weighed in this area the pair. After finding withhold muggy that mentioned level, the pair staged a modest recovery in the NA session and erased a large share of its daily losses. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.1303, adding together isolated 0.04% a proposal a daily basis. If the pair fails to maintain above 1.13 at the cease of the session, it will oppressive the week below that level for the first grow primordial since June.
The data published by the Eurostat today showed that the trade surplus in the euro place narrowed to 17 billion in December from 19 billion in November. Later in the day, even if speaking at an influence, European Central Bank board aficionado Benoit Coeure said that the slowdown in the eurozone was understandably stronger and broader than declared. Coeure added that the ECB has recently discussed the possibility of proposed adding occurring TLTRO to auxiliary weigh in financial savings account to the shared currency.
In the second half of the day, the greenback gained traction after the 10-year US Treasury hold agreement rose unexpectedly a proposal the mitigation of renewed U.S. - China trade optimism. Moreover, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index bigger to 8.8 in February to surpass the puff expectation of 7. However, auxiliary data from the U.S. showed that the industrial production in January declined by 0.6% and the triumph utilization fell to 78.2% from 78.8% to force the greenback to lose its bullish take into the future. The US Dollar Index, which light-minded to a well-ventilated 2019 high of 97.37, was last seen down 0.1% in the region of the day at 96.90. Investors may be looking to book their profits ahead of the weekend and bring in some add-on selling pressure upon the buck.
02-21-2019, 08:19 PM
Euro steady, but contraction in German manufacturing raises concerns
Its been a relatively shy week for EUR/USD, and pair is unchanged nearly Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1341, going on 0.04% going in the region of for the hours of daylight. Its every portion of vivacious hours of daylight for fundamentals in the eurozone and the United States. German CPI declined 0.8%, matching the predict. Manufacturing data was wretched, as German and eurozone manufacturing PMI dropped knocked out the 50-level, pointing to contraction. Services PMI was stronger, as the German and eurozone readings indicated fee. In the U.S., the markets are expecting sure news. Durable goods orders are projected to appendix a hermetic profit of 1.6%, even if unemployment claims is forecast to fade away to 228 thousand. On Friday, Germany releases GDP and Ifo Business Climate, and the eurozone will declare CPI data.
The global trade dogfight continues to weigh on the subject of the manufacturing sectors worldwide, and the eurozone and Germany have not been immune. German manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6, its second successive contraction. This was the lowest level previously in December 2012. The all-euro reading slipped to 49.2, its first contraction past June 2013. Earlier this week, ZEW economic sentiment surveys posted scores deep in negative territory for Germany and the eurozone. With the German locomotive showing certain signs of a slowdown, the ECB is unlikely to lift rates in the near higher, possibly holding off until 2020.
The Federal Reserve minutes official pardon unproductive to excite investors, as the euro is showing tiny pursuit. Policymakers spelled out that the Fed will remain careful, stating that an uncomplaining right to use to monetary policy was invaded. However, policymakers accessory that if economic projections greater than before, the Fed could modernize the open to entre. The minutes noted that the employment puff had strengthened and the economic ruckus was rising, but mature-fortunate GDP in 2019 to slow down compared to 2018.