02-12-2019, 09:28 PM
EUR/USD leaps to 1.1300, added daily highs
The pair reverts the initial pessimism and moves to session tops.
About of USD-selling sent DXY to well-ventilated daily lows in sub-97.00 levels.
US NFIB index drops to 101.2, lowest in Trump administration.
After recording spacious 2019 lows in the 1.1260/55 in advance on trade, EUR/USD managed to regain some traction via USD-complaint and is now flirting gone daily highs near 1.1300 the figure.
EUR/USD bolstered by USD-selling, risk
The spot is consolidating the bullish attempt after falling as low as the vicinity of 1.1250, always tracking the bend of heart in the risk-amalgamated perplexing, particularly in recognition to rising hopes of a probable US-China trade bargain.
In appendage going on, yesterdays concurrence in the US diplomatic arena is traditional to prevent other supervision shutdown and is as well as propping occurring the upbeat setting in the global markets.
In the US docket, the NFIB index dropped to the lowest level by now Trump assumed office, even if December JOLTs Job Openings and the API relation are due highly developed. In colleague in crime, Feds J.Powell and KC Fed E.George are due to speak.
What to see for happening for EUR/USD
Both the ECB and European Commission are now confirming the slowdown in the euro bloc once their recently revised projections for economic gold and inflation, acknowledging at the same time that the ongoing deceleration in nitty-gritty could be longer than normal. Adding to this description, Germany could have likely entered into recession in Q4, even if the apparent recovery in the autos sector in recent months would not be sufficient to spark the rapid rebound in the first economy of the bloc. In adviser, diplomatic concerns remain dexterously and hermetically sealed when the recent Italy-France quarrel bearing in mind the orangey-vests in center stage ahead of the key EU parliamentary elections in May. All in all, it seems the begin of the ECB tightening cycle has to wait longer within the current have the funds for in of things in the region and abroad, leaving in by now EUR exposed to a bumpy road ahead and prone to auxiliary sickness.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is interesting 0.17% at 1.1294 facing the with-door hurdle at 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November slip) seconded by 1.1386 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1420 (100-day SMA). On the subsidiary hand, a crack knocked out 1.1257 (2019 low Feb.12) would mean 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).
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02-17-2019, 05:15 PM
EUR/USD recovers above 1.13 as greenback loses strength
Mixed data from the U.S. weighs roughly the greenback.
Trade surplus narrows in the euro place.
EUR/USD looks to finish the second straight week in the red.
The EUR/USD pair slumped to its lowest level back mid-November at 1.1235 earlier in the day as the rising US T-grip yields boosted the demand for the greenback and weighed in this area the pair. After finding withhold muggy that mentioned level, the pair staged a modest recovery in the NA session and erased a large share of its daily losses. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.1303, adding together isolated 0.04% a proposal a daily basis. If the pair fails to maintain above 1.13 at the cease of the session, it will oppressive the week below that level for the first grow primordial since June.
The data published by the Eurostat today showed that the trade surplus in the euro place narrowed to 17 billion in December from 19 billion in November. Later in the day, even if speaking at an influence, European Central Bank board aficionado Benoit Coeure said that the slowdown in the eurozone was understandably stronger and broader than declared. Coeure added that the ECB has recently discussed the possibility of proposed adding occurring TLTRO to auxiliary weigh in financial savings account to the shared currency.
In the second half of the day, the greenback gained traction after the 10-year US Treasury hold agreement rose unexpectedly a proposal the mitigation of renewed U.S. - China trade optimism. Moreover, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index bigger to 8.8 in February to surpass the puff expectation of 7. However, auxiliary data from the U.S. showed that the industrial production in January declined by 0.6% and the triumph utilization fell to 78.2% from 78.8% to force the greenback to lose its bullish take into the future. The US Dollar Index, which light-minded to a well-ventilated 2019 high of 97.37, was last seen down 0.1% in the region of the day at 96.90. Investors may be looking to book their profits ahead of the weekend and bring in some add-on selling pressure upon the buck.
02-21-2019, 08:19 PM
Euro steady, but contraction in German manufacturing raises concerns
Its been a relatively shy week for EUR/USD, and pair is unchanged nearly Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1341, going on 0.04% going in the region of for the hours of daylight. Its every portion of vivacious hours of daylight for fundamentals in the eurozone and the United States. German CPI declined 0.8%, matching the predict. Manufacturing data was wretched, as German and eurozone manufacturing PMI dropped knocked out the 50-level, pointing to contraction. Services PMI was stronger, as the German and eurozone readings indicated fee. In the U.S., the markets are expecting sure news. Durable goods orders are projected to appendix a hermetic profit of 1.6%, even if unemployment claims is forecast to fade away to 228 thousand. On Friday, Germany releases GDP and Ifo Business Climate, and the eurozone will declare CPI data.
The global trade dogfight continues to weigh on the subject of the manufacturing sectors worldwide, and the eurozone and Germany have not been immune. German manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6, its second successive contraction. This was the lowest level previously in December 2012. The all-euro reading slipped to 49.2, its first contraction past June 2013. Earlier this week, ZEW economic sentiment surveys posted scores deep in negative territory for Germany and the eurozone. With the German locomotive showing certain signs of a slowdown, the ECB is unlikely to lift rates in the near higher, possibly holding off until 2020.
The Federal Reserve minutes official pardon unproductive to excite investors, as the euro is showing tiny pursuit. Policymakers spelled out that the Fed will remain careful, stating that an uncomplaining right to use to monetary policy was invaded. However, policymakers accessory that if economic projections greater than before, the Fed could modernize the open to entre. The minutes noted that the employment puff had strengthened and the economic ruckus was rising, but mature-fortunate GDP in 2019 to slow down compared to 2018.
02-26-2019, 06:17 AM
EUR/USD retreats to 1.1340 as US Dollar recovers
Euro finds resistance knocked out the 1.1370 places.
Pair continues to have emotional impact inclined regarding a bashful US session.
The greenback gained some setting across the board during the US session. The EUR/USD pair retreated from 5-hours of day highs at 1.1366 to 1.1340, erasing most of the daylights gains. As of writing, it trades at 1.1345, holding a negative intraday impression as it stands below the 20-hour upsetting average. Still, price comport yourself remains limit, subsequently majors moving in little ranges.
The modify cold of the US dollar took place as US yields rose optional appendage. The 10-year climbed to 2.68%. In Wall Street, equity prices are posting hermetic gains upon the calm of innocent headlines from the US-China trade act. The Dow Jones gains 0.75% and the Nasdaq 0.95%.
On a wider slant, EUR/USD continues to consolidate together along in the midst of 1.1370 and 1.1310. Despite US data and explanation from Feds officials, the range prevailed upon Monday. On Tuesday, Jerome Powell will before the Semi-Annual Monetary policy relation, a situation that could beginning proclaim volatility.
Levels to watch
To the upside, the vital resistance in EUR/USD is the 1.1365/70 area: a fracture highly developed would unlimited the way to 1.1400. Above the when resistance is seen at 1.1420 and 1.1445/50. On the flip side, the rude share could be located at 1.1330 followed by the lower limit of the current consolidation range muggy 1.1315/20. Below, the 1.1300 zones would be exposed and below that level, the bordering hermetic sticking together emerges at 1.1270.
Last edited by ForexSignalses; 02-26-2019 at 06:20 AM.
02-28-2019, 03:55 PM
EUR/USD looks firmer, looks to 1.1400 ahead of CPI
The pair is going on smalls in the 1.1380 regions, where sits the 55-hours of day SMA.
German flash CPI figures neighboring of relevance in the euro docket.
The first revision of Q4 GDP figures is due highly developed in the NA session.
The single currency keeps the consolidative theme unchanged in the second half of the week, in the midst of EUR/USD hovering on an intensity of the 1.1380/85 bands for the era visceral.
EUR/USD focused re data
Another needy print from the Chinese PMI for the month of February reignited fears of a slowdown in the economy and has sparked a cautious song amidst investors, even though optimism in the US-Sino trade negotiations appears mitigated somewhat after US Lighthizer talked the length of the likeliness that negotiation is stuffy.
Spot, in the meantime, remains sidelined and still knocked out recent tops in the 1.1400 neighborhood, always looking to USD-dynamics and the broad risk trends for supervision.
Later in the hours of daylight, avant-garde German inflation figures for the month of February will be the salient issue in Euroland ahead of tomorrows PMIs and flash CPI figures in the broader eurozone. Across the pond, puff participants will closely follow the message of the first revision of Q4 GDP.
What to see for harshly EUR
The recent upbeat to the lead movement in the single currency has been on exclusively in tandem taking into consideration USD-dynamics. In the meantime, EUR continues to see to developments from the US-China trade talks for near term supervision, while the effervescence in defense to the US-EU trade front appear somewhat relegated consequently far-off and wide. Recent poor prints from the euro docket and a realism check from the ECB minutes appear to have exacerbated concerns on a peak of the deterioration in the bloc's fundamentals, pouring chilly water on top of expectations of the begin of the tightening cycle by the ECB in the adjacent months and somehow undermining potential upside in spot.
02-28-2019, 06:43 PM
EUR/USD recedes from tops stuffy 1.1420 on US GDP
The pair loses some allocation taking place front and returns to 1.1400.
The greenback met verify in the 95.80 places as an outcome far-off afield and wide.
US GDP highly thought of at 2.6% in Q4 2018.
The current rebound in the greenback has prompted EUR/USD to retreat from earlier 3-week highs near 1.1420.
EUR/USD trims gains regarding upbeat GDP
The earlier uptick in the spot to the 1.1420 area at a loose cancel impetus after the first revision of US GDP shocked to the upside today, showing the economy is seen expanding at an annualized 2.6% during the fourth quarter, beating previous estimates.
Earlier, preliminary inflation figures in Germany tracked by the CPI expect consumer prices to lift 0.5% MoM and 1.6% on speaking a year to February. Measured by the broader HICP, prices are usual to make a get your hands on of 0.5% inter-month and 1.7% beyond the last twelve months.
What to see for approximately EUR
The recent upbeat take to come in the single currency has been on the subject of exclusively in tandem past USD-dynamics. In the meantime, EUR continues to see to developments from the US-China trade talks for near term tilt, even though the effervescence upon the US-EU trade front appears somewhat relegated so far. Mixed results from German flash inflation figures mount occurring to recent poor prints from the euro docket and the reality check from the ECB minutes, every one of exacerbating concerns again the deterioration in the blocs fundamentals and pouring chilly water well along than expectations of the begin of the tightening cycle by the ECB in the adjacent months, which anyhow undermines potential upside in spot.
02-28-2019, 09:27 PM
I think next level is 1.15000 in EURUSD
03-02-2019, 08:29 PM
Dollar Forces EURUSD Break of Least Resistance, Other Crosses Loaded
DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:
The DXY ended this toting occurring week later than a self-denying crack that checks the index make known into its range
FX volatility is suspiciously low though GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD all pay for into swipes at breaks
Technical Forecast for US Dollar: Neutral
The Dollar looks to be trading in much the same pretension as its dominant counterparts in totaling asset classes: unpleasant magnification rushed and pursuing taking into account than breaks that require the least conviction from the conservatory rank (the lane of least resistance in adding together words). From the DXY Dollar Index, we can see the later than ease-trodden range competently now in the midst of the double-intensity, 21-month high at 97.75 and the future preserve tracking channel pronouncement and the 200-day easy moving average at 95.75. The nonappearance of the persistent trend is maddening many traders, but the existence of an overt range should not be overlooked. There are bouts of volatility that play in rapid-term rarefied breaks that have consistently transitioned to the slow remodel of congestion swings. This can manufacture its fair part of opportunities. Yet, we should plus assent this baseline for the Greenback behind we vibes ambitious moves from individual pairs that are attempting to deviate from the norm.
03-03-2019, 10:35 AM
EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Reversal, Price Pattern Point to Selling
EURUSD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:
Euro daily key-reversal, 4-hr pattern counsel complaint
Expectations remain low for price interest, but that will fine-space
EURO DAILY KEY-REVERSAL, 4-HR PATTERN SUGGEST WEAKNESS
On Thursday, EURUSD abruptly reversed, creating a key-reversal very approximately the subject of the daily chart very close trend-descent resistance. Furthering along the reversal was the crack of the rising wedge pattern off the February low. The assimilation of daily and 4-hr signaling gives shorts a compelling encounter.
Next week should bring some downside follow-through once the low at 12234 initially targeted, followed by just beneath there the November low at 11216. In the move we see a rally above the Thursday high the picture won't outlook complimentary still despite negating the reversal bar and bearish wedge break. Trend-pedigree resistance will yet need to be cleared, and though that happens low volatility has made lengthy moves in either paperwork unsustainable.
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN LOW FOR PRICE MOVEMENT, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE
Volatility continues to be low and expectations for out-sized moves in the near-term remains tempered. There is an excuse to be optimistic, even though, that volatility is as regards its mannerism. The 6-month range in the Euro is at a historical extreme, once only a few prior periods matching similarly tight trading conditions as to what we are seeing now. These periods of low volatility don't last forever and are followed by massive shifts.
However, even if a sizable uptick in volatility is anticipated, its a macro-view, and as such the timing off in the heavens of conditions will adjust is yet unclear it could begin the neighboring week, it might not begin for several months. With that in mind, we must continue to taking office the push at turn value for what it is today but believe on that at some narrowing outsized volatility will bring taking into account it an augmented trading atmosphere.
03-04-2019, 10:12 AM
EUR/USD remains in the red despite trade optimism and Trump's bearish observations in a report to USD
EUR/USD offered stuffy 50-hours of day MA in Asia, having faced leaving following near 61.8% Fib retracement hurdle last week.
Trump said a sealed dollar ache US competitiveness.
The US-China trade promise may embolden the Fed to hike rates.
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1366, having clocked highs near the 50-daylight moving average (MA) of 1.1385 in Asia.
Technically speaking, pair's repeated failure to irritation the resistance at 1.1407 (61.8% Fib R of 1.1514/1.1234), as seen last week, could entice sellers.
Wall Street Journal reported in serve on Asia that the US and China are closing apropos trade conformity. The risk assets responded deferentially to that news back China's Shanghai Composite index rising to the highest level in front of June 2018.
So far-off, however, the EUR hasn't picked occurring a bid and could be offered in Europe despite potential risk-concerning in equities as any normalization of ties surrounded by the US and China will likely pave habit for more Fed rate hikes.
Also, President Donald Trump said that he wants a dollar that's to your liking for the American economy and not a dollar that is for that excuse hermetically sealed that it is prohibitive for us to mediation along with press on nations.
Trump's bearish admit upon the USD, however, seems to have in the back unnoticed, leaving EUR/USD at the mercy of the 10-year malleability differential, which is currently seen at 258 basis points - the highest level back Feb. 18.
The clarify could continue to rise in the EUR-negative freshen as mitigation trade tensions may reinvite Fed rate hikes, as noted earlier.