U.S. T-bond & T-note Yield

**PCMNewsdesk** · 07-14-2016, 08:23 AM

Our stance remains bearish [30-year U.S T-bond prices]. The active daily continuation futures contract dropped to 173^07.0 yesterday afternoon and closed the session at 173^29.0. Prices bounced a bit today. The extreme sentiment conditions that have been discussed here, in EWFF and in EWT, remain intact. The wave structure of the rally may be acceptably labeled complete. If a top is in place for bond prices, they should soon start to decline in a more intense manner. The initial target is 5-10 points lower than current levels. A close at a new high, above 177^11.0, would mean that the bond rally was extending.

**PCMNewsdesk** · 07-16-2016, 11:14 AM

Our bearish forecast for [30-year U.S T-bond prices] is playing out, as prices are down nearly 6 full points since the 177^11.0 top on July 11. A short term area of support exists right beneath today’s low, in the 170^19.0 to 171^12.0 range, but the bond market’s bearish potential is much greater. The rising trendline that started December 31, 2013 and has contained the bond rally since then, crosses about ten points beneath today’s close (see red line on chart). The area surrounding that trendline is the first significant downside target. With Large Speculators near a 21-year net-long extreme in bond futures and options contracts, the downward move in prices may be swift. The key level for the bearish case is the July 11 high; it should not even be tested.

**PCMNewsdesk** · 07-19-2016, 06:03 AM

[30-year U.S T-bond prices] made a top at 177^11.0 on July 11. This high should be the start a multi-month decline. Short term, today’s 170^31.0 low is in the middle of support, which stretches down to 170^19.0, a gap at the close on June 24. Prices could bounce a point or two from near current levels but we are not certain of the odds to place on this short term move. The next strong downside target area is in the wide range at 162-166. As the pattern progresses and prices work lower, we should be able to hone this area to a tighter range. As before, the key level for the bearish case is the July 11 high; it should not even be tested.