Hello Guest, if you are reading this it means you have not registered yet. Please take a second, Click here to register, and in a few simple steps you will be able to enjoy all the many features of our fine community. Note that lewd or meaningless nicknames are prohibited (no numbers or letters at random) and please introduce yourself in the section for you to meet our community.
pcm brokers pcm brokers
Page 6 of 7 FirstFirst ... 4567 LastLast
Results 51 to 60 of 62

Thread: Bank Forecast

  1. #51
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    What's Next For The USD Policy Divergence Trade? - Credit Agricole

    What is interesting at the start of the new year is the persistent divergence between the number of expected Fed rate hikes by the market and the glide path for the Fed fund rates implied by the December dot-plot.

    This divergence could suggest that the Fed may tolerate lower US inflation and growth before changing its policy outlook. In turn, unless the US inflation or growth surprise significantly on the downside in coming quarters, this could pave the way for some hawkish surprises from the Fed.

    This could further highlight the positive outlook for USD against the rest of G10. We remain particularly bearish on the antipodean currencies where we expect the combination of weak commodity prices and continuing Chinese slowdown to undermine the appeal of both AUD and NZD.

    We also think that both USD/CHF and USD/JPY could head higher from here because we expect that the persistent portfolio outflows from Japan and Switzerland and into the US to become increasingly unhedged and thus have greater impact on FX spot.

  2. #52
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    EUR/USD: Make Or Break At 1.08; GBP/USD: Target 1.46 - UOB

    While EUR/USD downward momentum is not strong, the current weakness appears to have scope to extend lower to test the major support near 1.0800/05, says UOB Group.

    "While the outlook for EUR is bearish in the coming days, any weakness is expected to struggle to move below the major support near 1.0800/05.

    Overall, only a move back above 1.0945 would indicate the current downward pressure has eased," UOB adds.

    Turning to GBP/USD, UOB notes that its current bearish phase appears incomplete and is expected to extend lower to 1.4600 in the coming days.

    "Downward momentum is still strong and any rebound is expected to encounter stiff resistance near 1.4760 but only a break above 1.4840 would indicate that the bearish phase has ended," UOB argues.

  3. #53
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    If Short USD/JPY, What To Do Now? - UOB


    The weakness during the early Sydney hours yesterday was fleeting as USD staged a strong recovery after touching a low of 116.71.

    While it is premature to expect a sustained rebound, the current price action could be the early stages of a basing process

    Downward momentum dented, look to take profit near 116.45. The sudden and sharp rebound yesterday has clearly dented the downward momentum in USD.

    However, confirmation of a low is only upon a break of the stop-loss at 118.40. Those who are shorts from last week may likely to book profit on any dip close to 116.45.

  4. #54
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    Quiet Week And Risk Off: What Is The Trade? - Credit Agricole


    The thin data calendar this week could mean that swings in the market risk sentiment will continue to dominate the G10 FX markets. Indeed, risk aversion could linger in the absence of policy measures to bolster investors' confidence and we remain cautious in our outlook for risk-correlated and commodity currencies.

    In addition, in the case of antipodeans, potential disappointments from the Chinese trade balance figures and monetary aggregates as well as the Australian labour market data, could keep the selling pressure on AUD and NZD in place for now.

    While the latest bout of risk aversion burnished JPY safe haven appeal, we continue to expect limited gains from here given the BoJ's readiness to act in response to further escalation of the market risk aversion and/or unwarranted FX appreciation.

    Even if the market risk aversion remains the dominant theme thix week, some of the data releases and the events could attract considerable attention. In particular, the US retail sales and the Fed speakers should be of interest.

    We think that the uncertainty going into the retail sales is considerable, so that markets looking for a subdued print during the holiday season maybe in for a positive surprise. In addition, we suspect that the Fed speakers during the week will try to bolster market risk sentiment by reiterating their confidence in the US recovery in the face of lingering global growth threats. This could come across as hawkish and support USD.

    GBP was among the majors that have underperformed greatly at the start of the new year. We believe that the upcoming IP and MP data releases as well as the January BoE meeting could help prop up GBP. Indeed, the latest currency underperformance was related to growing concerns about the impact of a potential Brexit. We think that the latest selloff seems somewhat premature given that there is still no date for the EU referendum and that the supporters of Brexit are by no means in majority. We think that evidence that the BoE view on the economy has changed little of late could trigger a round of profit taking by those betting on more MPC dovishness given the latest data and growing Brexit fears.

    Last but not least, investors will focus on the release of the ECB minutes. The ECB speakers we had since the December meeting, which left many disappointed justified the lack of more decisive easing measures. We think that the minutes will highlight that the decision was controversial with the ECB dovish lean centred around the President still very much there. With the Eurozone inflation expectation starting to correct lower in response to the disappointing December flash HICP estimate and the persisting selloff in the global commodity prices, markets could start betting on more easing to come and sell EUR.

  5. #55
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    Credit Suisse Trade Of The Week: Sell GBP/JPY


    Currency investors should consider selling GBP/JPY this week, advises Credit Suisse in its weekly FX pick to clients.

    Rationale: "The probability is still skewed towards further risk-off price action in our view, with JPY likely to benefit the most in FX (especially when alternative traditional 'safe havens' like CHF no longer seem to be behaving in such a manner).

    Meanwhile we expect two headlines to weigh on sterling.

    First, we believe the chances are increasing that an EU referendum could be held as early as late June (although no date has been confirmed).

    Second, we expect the Bank of England to remain dovish with just 1 member voting for a hike, and the minutes to reflect lackluster wage growth, falling oil prices and downwards to nominal/real GDP and weak survey data. Rates markets already suggest expectations are priced for a dovish MPC, but we continue to see sterling as fundamentally overvalued," CS says as a rationale behind this call.

    Risks: "The risks to such a trade would be a recovery in Chinese sentiment and the Bank of England sounding more balanced or upbeat on recent data," CS adds.

  6. #56
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    EUR: Hedge Downside, GBP: Correction Ahead – Barclays

    We certainly had some moves in markets, with EUR moving down and the pound crashing only to stage a nice recovery. What’s next? Here is the view from Barclays:

    EUR: Hedge the downside while it is still cheap.

    The EUR weakened last week as the ECB’s Governing Council unanimously agreed to review and reconsider policy at the March 10 meeting. Although the outcome of the meeting was more dovish than we had previously envisioned, given that the ECB had eased policy in December, we are not surprised by the ECB’s course of action given the soft inflationary environment and the material deterioration in medium- and longer-term inflation expectations. Indeed, we take the January ECB meeting to be a strong signal towards future action at the March meeting and think a 10bp deposit rate cut or additional QE is feasible.



    Appropriately, EONIA forwards are now pricing c. 80% chance of a 10bp rate in March (Figure 4). A dovish ECB helped stabilize global risk sentiment but it remains to be seen whether it proves enough to end the recent market rout. A move back to trading fundamentals errs on the side of EURUSD downside, also in the context of underpriced Fed rate hikes this year. Yet, EURUSD puts look historically cheap relative to calls across the curve, offering a compelling opportunity to express downside through options (Figure 5).


    Data this week will likely be uninspiring for the EUR. We expect the German Ifo Business Climate (Monday) to print lower this month (108.3 from 108.7 previously) with a decline in the assessment of the current situation fuelling some uncertainty about export performance. Moreover, we project French GDP (Friday) to decelerate 0.2pp to 0.1% q/q in Q4 15, driven by private consumption. Finally, we are slightly below the consensus in expecting euro area ‘‘flash’’ HICP inflation (Friday) to have edged up to +0.3% in January; however, we are in line with consensus in expecting core prices to have remained stable at +0.9% y/y. We nonetheless expect euro area inflation to return to negative territory between February and July 2016 (see European Economics Quarterly: A challenging ‘missingflation’ recovery, 20 January 2016), a risk also highlighted by the ECB last week.

    GBP: Near-term correction in GBP is likely.

    Despite another round of uninspiring data, the GBP finally saw a rebound last week following a more dovish ECB press conference. We have highlighted the risk for a EURGBP reversal over the past two weeks as momentum indicators were indicating oversold GBP conditions and see scope for a further move lower in the near term, given the rapidity of the move to the topside and increased market pricing of additional ECB easing in the coming months.

    Our expectations for GDP growth this week (Thursday) will likely cap the downside however. We expect GDP to post 0.5% q/q growth in Q4 (consensus: 0.5% q/q, previous: 0.4% q/q), but acknowledge downside risks to our forecasts and continue to look for softer UK growth in the context of expected fiscal tightening.

    Although we continue to look for trend depreciation in GBPUSD, we think that a further near-term correction is likely as the market looks for better levels to re-engage in core GBPUSD downside positions ahead of the UK referendum later in the year.

    Our revised timing of BoE lift-off (Q4 from Q2 previously) however, continues to represent upside risks to our GBP view in the context of extremely dovish market pricing, which suggests the first rate hike will not occur until May 2017. We expect further GBP weakness against the USD but not the EUR by year-end.

  7. #57
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    January NFP: Preview & FX Trading Strategy – BofA Merrill


    The Non-Farm Payrolls is the highlight of this week’s trading calendar. Here is the view from Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

    mployment growth likely slowed in January with nonfarm payrolls rising by 170,000. This follows a robust 2015 finish, as jobs increased by an average of 284,000 in the final three months. Exceptionally favorable weather, particularly in December, provided a boost to the data. Our models suggest that there will be some payback in the following month and an even larger payback two months late. The major snowstorm that hit the East Coast won’t play a role in the January figures since it was after the survey week; it could matter for February, however. Outside of the weather, we see reasons for some weakening in the trend given the modest uptick in jobless claims and a minor drop in the Conference Board’s labor market differential.

    On a sector basis, we think mining continued to shed jobs amid depreciating oil prices, and manufacturing was stagnant. Construction is particularly sensitive to weather and ramped up in 4Q, so there is a high risk of weakening. On the flip side, services sector jobs growth likely remained solid. We also look for government to rise by 5,000, which implies private sector job growth of 165,000.


    We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.0%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% mom with upside risk, following no gain in December. The base effects reverse between December and January. They were favorable in December, boosting the yoy rate to 2.5%, but even with a 0.3% mom increase this month, we would see deceleration to 2.2% yoy.


    FX Trading Strategy: The inability of the dollar to rally on last month’s stellar 292k report leaves asymmetric risks for the USD (similar to rates) into this week’s NFP report, particularly with our below consensus call of 170k. Indeed, despite the largest NFP surprise since 2012, USD/JPY sold off by nearly a percent, something that hasn’t happened since April 2014 (Chart 1). As we have noted, this implies the market will continue to question the Fed’s ability to hike the 4 times the dots imply with the risks emanating from China (and lower commodity prices) front and center in investors’ minds. While the 6mma of payrolls growth is an above-trend 229k (enough to justify further hikes in the Fed’s mind), even a positive surprise is unlikely to assuage investors’ overall concerns about the U.S. economy.




    Therefore, we see USD price action limited. However, a weak report, even if it leaves the trend of jobs growth above 200k, will likely weigh on risk sentiment. We favor being short the USD against perceived safe-haven currencies, like EUR and JPY, which according to our regression analysis have the most consistent responses to NFP surprises.

  8. #58
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    EUR/USD: Opposing Forces: Where To Target? – BTMU

    Euro/dollar has been one of the most frustrating currency pairs in the new year, with ranges just becoming tighter and tighter. Where will it go from here? The team at BTMU explains:

    The EUR/USD rate did not repeat the sharp declines of January 2015 in 2016 with a more modest 0.6% decline recorded, notes Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU).

    Such stability, according to BTMU, reflects opposing forces that countered each other.

    “Firstly, the upturn in risk aversion due to increased volatility fuelled by renewed concerns over China growth dampened speculation of an FOMC rate increase in March – falling short-term yields in the US undermined the dollar. However, at the ECB meeting in January, President Draghi was explicit in hinting that additional monetary easing may be warranted when the Governing Council next meets on 10th March.

    Given the ECB only announced monetary easing in December, the explicit reference to additional easing in March does suggest divisions within the Governing Council over the failure of the ECB to meet its price stability mandate. The minutes of the meeting in December highlighted the divisions with opposition to QE, which appeared more ideological, even if inflation and growth were to slow. Certainly the developments in the crude oil market in January made achieving the 1.0% 2016 inflation forecast more difficult. While President Draghi hinted at more action, the selloff of the euro has been very limited in part due to investors’ scepticism over aggressive action given the apparent divisions within the Governing Council.

    Still, the increased presence of negative yields in the euro-zone following the December deposit rate cut is likely to keep the euro under downward pressure. If risk aversion subsides, we would expect further gradual euro depreciation ahead. The net short-term securities flow on a 6mth total basis as of November amounted to an outflow of EUR 51bn, the largest since March. The net flow for long-term securities (debt & equity) was also an outflow with the 6mth sum totalling EUR 196bn. Under favourable market conditions, capital outflows are set to surpass inflows on the current account that remain at a record high.

    While the ECB may now ease its policy stance in March, we doubt the action will impact monetary policy divergence expectations and fuel greater euro selling than we currently forecast. A test of parity later this year remains probable,” BTMU argues.

    BTMU targets EUR/USD at 1.06 by end of Q1 and at 1.03 at end of Q2.

  9. #59
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    USD Diving Into Deep Water: Trade Opportunities - BofA Merrill


    The January payrolls report supports our overall constructive, though cautious view on the USD.


    Near-term, the Fed’s policy signal will be muted by (1) slowing US growth momentum, and (2) further China-induced volatility. Both will challenge the Fed’s ability to hike the four times the dots imply and lead the market to question if they can hike at all, weighing on risk sentiment if the Fed’s tone changes aggressively
    .

    The market has overshot in its bearishness on US growth and the Fed outlook, in our view. But it is too early to start trading the USD-positive policy divergence theme again, particularly with rate differentials suggesting further USD downside to go. Until we get greater clarity on the ability of US growth to weather a weak external backdrop (and not just the labor market), the risk for further USD capitulation remains. USD longs have been paired back with the biggest reduction in EUR and CAD, but positions remain sizeable.



    Rather than trying to time a USD turn or periods of riskon/risk-off we prefer relative value plays amongst risk-on and risk-off currencies, in addition to our longer-term views discussed below:


    We remain bearish CNH and long a 6m USD/CNH forward outright entered 23 November at 6.5260 (current: 6.7272), but are less convinced of significant front-loaded depreciation in February. With the rise in implied volatility, we like limited payoff call spreads in USD/CNH. The further $99.5bn decline in Chinese FX reserves in January will lead to further downside pressure on CNY near-term, in our view. Higher USD/CNY could help embolden USD bulls in G10, particularly versus commodity currencies, but we are skeptical this will be significant driver.


    We continue to like JPY against the EUR and CHF. The recent move to negative rates is unlikely to lead to sustained weakening pressure on JPY with real interest unlikely to fall, risk aversion will keep Japanese funds in Japan, and there could be competitive pressures. Additionally, with the market likely to continue questioning Fed hikes, risk sentiment could come under pressure if expectations rise; particularly it occurs alongside financial-conditions-tightening USD strength.


    We are biased to buy USD/CAD on dips. The forthcoming fiscal stimulus, stabilizing oil prices, and greater BoC concern with C$ weakness have shifted risks to neutral, we still value in buying dips below the 1.40-1.45 target range we have on USD/CAD for the rest of the year.

  10. #60
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,327
    My Language
    English
    USD/JPY: L/T Bearish Signal; Confirming Broad H&S Pattern - SocGen

    USD/JPY achieved last year the tipping point of 126.00 at the end of the sustained up trend from 2012 lows, and in the process, the pair traced a massive ABC formation since 1995 lows (Elliot Waves principles) with up-moves each lasting three years, developing within a steep bullish channel and falling through at the long-term up channel resistance, notes SocGen.

    "Historically, JPY has a tendency to reverse in a V-shaped formation which is this time completed by a Head and Shoulders pattern. Monthly indicator Stochastic has rejected the 20-year resistance (red horizontal line) then has given a negative crossover hence prompted a compelling long-term bearish signal," SocGen argues.

    Near term, SocGen notes that USD/JPY has just made a break below the critical level of 116.00/115.50 which consists of the confirmation level of the broad Head and Shoulder pattern, which should act as a catalyst especially after being confirmed with the daily close below this zone.

    "The projected target for the pattern is located at 106, also the 38.2% retracement of the 2012-2015.




    Immediate support stands at 113.80/113.20, the 23.6% retracement and the lower boundary of the down sloping channel within which the pair has been evolving over the past months," SocGen projects.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
Page 6 of 7 FirstFirst ... 4567 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.4
Copyright © 2019 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Credits System provided by vBCredits II Deluxe v2.1.1 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Feedback Buttons provided by Advanced Post Thanks / Like v3.3.0 Patch Level 2 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd. Runs best on HiVelocity Hosting.
All times are GMT +4. The time now is 01:29 PM.
CompleteVB skins shared by PreSofts.Com