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Thread: EURUSD

  1. #1
    Senior Trader
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    EURUSD Analysis 05/02/15

    Long term trend: Down
    Medium term trend: Down
    Significant levels: 1.1350 (Horizontal Support), 1.1650 (Horizontal Resistance), 1.1000 (Significant Round Number), Downtrends, Fibonacci Retracement

    As of writing, the price is just above the support line. The market rejected the 1.1150 price level and has been moving up since then. Definitely, we are still bearish on this currency pair. As we are now near the support area, we cannot place our Short order here. Preferably, we want the market to move up to 1.1650, which is also the 61.8% retracement in our Fibonacci retracement line. If the price reached that level, it is likely that the price will reject it. That would be a great opportunity for us to place our trade.

    The price recently broke the short term downtrend line as can be seen in the chart. This line could still be respected by the market, which could be a support line as well - probably for a short term period only.

    Attached Images Attached Images

  2. #2
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    FOREX-Euro jumps on EU migration agreement, dollar slumps

    Euro surges after deal on EU unity
    * Dollar index to make first quarterly gain in six quarters
    * Yuan suffers biggest monthly fall as trade disputes bite

    * Graphic: World FX rates in 2018 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (Adds EU inflation data, updates figures)
    LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - The euro jumped on Friday after European Union leaders reached an agreement on migration that eased pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but traders said the gains may be short-lived because of deep divisions within the EU.
    A tense summit that dragged on into early Friday morning yielded vague pledges from EU leaders to strengthen external borders and explore new migrant centres.
    The deal eased concern over a standoff between Italy and the rest of the trading block and the euro subsequently rallied against the dollar, the Swiss franc, the British pound and the Japanese yen.
    At 1115 GMT, the euro was up 0.7 percent against the dollar at $1.1652 and headed for its biggest daily gain in a month.
    "The migration deal should ease the burden to countries such as Italy. It reduces the chances of an imminent split among the EU countries and is perceived as euro positive," said Viraj Patel, a currencies analyst at ING.
    Euro zone inflation rose to its highest rate in more than a year this month because of surging energy prices but the euro barely moved on the data.
    Risk sentiment improved after the migration agreement, undermining the yen and lifting growth-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar.
    The yen fell 0.1 percent to 110.65 to the dollar while the Australian dollar rose 0.4 percent to $0.7377.
    But analysts said risks remained for the euro because the agreement was non-binding and the summit showed how divided Europe has become, particularly with the emergence of a new eurosceptic government in Italy.
    "Disagreements within the EU and the euro zone can now put pressure on the currency and we are likely to see a lot of that. Good reasons for a notably stronger euro are hard to come by," Antje Praefcke, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said in a note to clients.
    The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.6 percent at 94.872. It had risen as high as 95.534 on Thursday, a level last seen almost a year ago.
    Despite Friday's drop, the index was up 5.5 percent this quarter, its first rise since the final quarter of 2016.
    The dollar's gains partly stemmed from the prospects of rising U.S. interest rates. It also got help in the past week from repatriations before the end of quarter and half year.
    But its overall strength, especially against many emerging currencies, probably reflects repatriation on increasing worries about U.S. trade disputes, some traders said.
    One currency that has weakened against the dollar is China's yuan, hitting a 7 1/2-month low of 6.6522 on Friday.
    The currency has lost 3.5 percent this month, surpassing the 2.7 percent fall seen in August 2015, when Beijing shocked markets by unexpectedly guiding the yuan lower.
    The British pound rallied sharply on Friday after a better-than-expected revision to Britain's first quarter economic growth raised expectations of monetary policy tightening later in the year.
    Adding to the bounce, the European Union's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that EU leaders had made progress in Brexit talks though big differences remained. (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo, editing by Larry King, Richard Balmforth)

  3. #3
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    EURUSD Latest: Euro Under Pressure From German Fallout, Trade Wars

    All is not well in Europe’s economic engine and the euro is set to be hit further lower in the coming weeks. In Germany, Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition government is under threat after CSU party leader and interior minister Horst Seehofer offered to resign in response to the recent EU migration deal. If Seehofer’s resignation is accepted it will call into question the future of Angela Merkel’s government at a time when Europe needs its strongest of pillars. And it is not just internal ructions shaking Germany with the US-EU trade wars seemingly being notched up. Over the weekend US President Trump highlighted again the potential leverage from tariffs against the EU automobile industry, at a time when the sector is still reeling from the emissions scandal and fears over the outcome of a no-deal Brexit. Around 1 in 5 new cars exported from Germany goes to the UK.
    EURUSD continues to respect the 1.1500 area after half-a-dozen failed attempts to break lower. Options barriers and quarter-end re-balancing may have prevented move lower but the charts continue to point to further weakness. The pair trade below all three moving averages while the RSI indicator in mid-market but pointing lower. A break below 1.1504 opens the way to 1.1448 with 1.1187 the longer-term objective.

  4. #4
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    FOREX-Euro edges higher, yuan gains as trade concerns linger

    Euro/dollar stays in tight range
    * U.S. public holiday keeps some traders on sidelines
    * Yuan strengthens away from 11-month low

    LONDON, July 4- The euro rose against the dollar on Wednesday but the move was limited as concerns ahead Washington’s end-of-week deadline to impose tariffs on Chinese imports kept many investors on the sidelines.
    The yuan was the big mover, gaining 0.8 percent as the Chinese currency continued its recovery from an 11-month low after the central bank took steps to stem its rapid slide.

    Currency moves were largely limited, however, with a public U.S. holiday in the United States discouraging traders from taking out big positions, not least until there is some clarity about where an escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China is headed and whether Europe will be dragged in.
    “Markets are still in a wait and see mode and risk sentiment is subdued,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, a currencies analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
    “Both the euro and the dollar benefit because both are seen as safe havens. The euro/dollar is misleading and it looks like nothing is happening,” she said, adding that the market needed to see data on whether the trade dispute was so far having an impact on the real economy.
    The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.1665. Euro zone business survey data is due at 0800 GMT.
    The dollar fell 0.2 percent against a basket of six major currencies at 94.505 ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, after notching up three consecutive months of gains.
    Both the yuan and Chinese equity markets have been on edge ahead of July 6, when U.S. tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods take effect. Beijing has said it will retaliate with tariffs on U.S. products.
    Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday and European markets also opened lower, underlying investor nervousness. The yen gained 0.2 percent versus the dollar to 110.39, supported by its safe haven status.
    The offshore yuan last traded at 6.6168 against the dollar, up 0.8 percent on the day. The yuan had rebounded sharply on Tuesday after reassuring remarks from Yi Gang, Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
    Governor Yi said in a statement on the PBOC website that the central bank was closely watching foreign exchange fluctuations and would seek to keep the yuan at a stable and reasonable level. Cross-border capital flows were under control, he noted.

  5. #5
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    EUR/USD: Euro stagnant below 1.1700 as ECB members undecided on rate outlook

    The Euro is trading little changed at around 1.1685 level after German inflation confirmed preliminary reading of 2.1% increase in June and before the ECB published its meeting minutes with the Governing Council members split of the definition of summer of 2019 being the right time for the rate hike.

    EUR/USD Forecast: Down but (still) not out

  6. #6
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    Aug 2018
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    Dollar edges taking place as China loosens policy, yuan eases

    The dollar edged sophisticated re Monday as China followed an lessening in domestic policy by allowing its yuan to drop, though the drop was not as throb as some had feared.
    Moves were limited by a nonappearance of liquidity bearing in mind Japan as regards holiday and the U.S. high regard support approximately a fracture. A immediate and steep rise in Treasury yields had underpinned the dollar for much of last week.
    China's central bank moved in this area Sunday to retain the economy by slashing the level of cash that banks must maintain as reserves. It was the fourth scratch this year and comes as the economy struggles bearing in mind the drag from an escalating trade disagreement gone the United States.
    Beijing followed by setting its yuan at 6.8957 per dollar , the lowest past May last year but yet immediate of the psychological 6.9000 level that dealers had eyed.

    The repair left the dollar trading at 6.9056 in the spot market , but off an help on zenith of 6.9157.
    "China's latest superiority scuff is inconsistent step to attempt to maintenance the domestic economy, surrounded by the headwinds from the trade tensions," said Westpac strategist Frances Cheung.
    "Yet even if the scrape may guidance Chinese giving out hold yields fly re low levels in the perspective of difficult U.S. yields, it with puts upward pressure upon USD/CNY."

    Any drop in the yuan tends to undermine optional enlargement emerging currencies as they dependence to depreciate to save exports competitive. That in turn supports the safe-port yen and the dollar, particularly following U.S. yields are rising.
    Yields upon 10-year Treasuries (US10YT=RR) hit a seven-year top upon Friday as data showed the unemployment rate falling to its lowest prematurely 1969.
    "The employment report does not pay for any excuse to think the labor assert is losing any build occurring," Kevin Cummins (NYSE:CMI), a senior U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.

    "As a consequences, the Federal Reserve's endeavor for gradual rate hikes through year interruption and more than should remain largely intact."
    Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was a fraction firmer at 95.682 (DXY) after hitting a six-week summit at 96.121 last week.

    The dollar inched ahead to 113.90 yen after topping out at 114.55 last week, the highest past November last year. Chart resistance regarding 114.70/75 remains a major barrier.

    The euro hovered at $1.1520 (EUR=), having bounced unaccompanied modestly from its recent six-week trough at $1.1462.

    Italian politics remained a drag as the European Commission warned the country's budget deficit breached codicil commitments, leading Rome to express it would "not retreat" from its spending plans.
    Sterling held at $1.3120 along plus speculation Britain was agonized nearer to an exit conformity subsequent to the European Union.

    EU Brexit negotiators put taking place considering a unity following Britain upon leaving following the bloc is "unconditionally near", sources said, in a sign a compromise upon a major sticking try - the highly developed Irish secure - might take effect the making.
    Brazil's definite was a shade firmer at 3.8364 per dollar after polls in the Presidential election showed right-wing Congressman Jair Bolsonaro was heading toward a second-round runoff adjoining leftist Fernando Haddad.
    Last edited by tradeforexcopier; 10-08-2018 at 07:45 AM.

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