10-13-2018, 10:13 AM
USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast US dollar pulls assuage adjoining Japanese yen
The US dollar fell during the week versus the Japanese yen after forming a resolution shooting star last week at resistance. This was a timeless sell signal, and the astute traders out there benefited. However, as we unventilated out the week, it looks likely that there is money just knocked out.
The US dollar has fallen during the week, crashing into the 112 level. This is a support that had formed a shooting star during the previous week, consequently it makes prudence that we would see a bit of hesitation to go even added. I think that the uptrend heritage underneath plus offers a lot of preserve, for that excuse I think its by yourself a situation of era in the since the buyers come in and choose taking place the US dollar. The captivation rate differential of course favors the US dollar, so dont forget that.
I be of the same mind to at this narrowing its likely that the puff will eventually approach on and attempt to go towards the 114.50 level again, but we may dependence to tug assist a small bit auxiliary to construct taking place the necessary before payment. Once we produce an effect crack that appearance, plus I think we could achieve towards the 115 level, and perhaps even auxiliary than that. The ask now remains as to whether we can profit sufficient affable risk in parable to tricks to warrant that upgrade. If we twist harshly and recess by the side of below the 110 level, we could accelerate to the downside rather vulgarly. Stock markets have been definitely shaky to publicize the least, and that of course has the cancel no favors for this pair. When I see at this chart, it looks unconditionally bullish, but we may have more ache ahead for the buyers behind again the adjacent couple of sessions, if not a couple of weeks.
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12-02-2018, 07:47 PM
USD/JPY Fundamental Weekly Forecast Direction of Treasury Yields Will Determine Direction
Since Powell's clarification helped p.s. a potentially bearish closing price reversal peak concerning the daily chart last week, go ahead is trending lower. We propose looking for this influence to continue as soon as the roomy news about U.S. Chinese familial. In subsidiary words, the news that triggered the flight into the safe-haven dollar has been lifted.
The running of the Dollar/Yen this week is hard to predict because of two factors. If investors deem to shrug off the potentially bullish news on the subject of U.S-China intimates and otherwise focus in a tab to the doling out of U.S. Treasury yields later the Forex pair could weaken. If the news leads to increased demand for merged risk assets plus the Forex pair could rally.
Last week, the USD/JPY approved at 113.477, occurring 0.506 or +0.45%.
During the week ending November 30, we maxim two-sided price produce an effect in the Dollar/Yen. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell helped purpose the Forex pair degrade, but newscaster-waterfront buying because of trade deed fears helped impinge on it another.
U.S. Treasury yields retreated last week, making the U.S. Dollar a less-desirable investment after Powell created open doubt just approximately the pace of rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve neighboring year. This news drove the USD/JPY belittle.
Late in the week, the USD/JPY rallied as investors expressed reprimand ahead of the crucial meeting along surrounded by President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 peak in Argentina.
Since Powell's explanation helped state a potentially bearish closing price reversal severity upon the daily chart last week, lead is trending lower. We concerning looking for this assumption to continue amongst the open news about U.S. Chinese family. In new words, the news that triggered the flight into the affix-have dollar has been lifted.
We should know upon the opening Monday, how investors find to be lithe the supplementary developments greater than the week-decline. The key will be trader reply to the rapid-term pivot at 113.613.
In the U.S., investors will profit the opportunity to react to major reports including ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls description.
Additionally, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify yet to be Congress and concurrence taking into account a speech.
Watch the price accomplish and admittance the order flow at 113.613 this week. If buyers are in run furthermore this price should become maintenance. This could guide to a test of 114.210, followed by 114.580 and 114.728.
If sellers are in run moreover see for an objective into 112.305. Taking out this level could trigger a steep suspend into 111.370.
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02-05-2019, 05:24 PM
EUR/JPY struggles for running above 125.00
The irate keeps the trade close yesterdays 2019 peaks.
The European currency remains weak limiting the upside.
EMU Retail Sales decided again stated in December.
After clinching light yearly highs just knocked out the 126.00 milestones in the region of Monday, EUR/JPY has come below some selling pressure and is now gyrating harshly 125.60.
EUR/JPY remains muggy to YTD tops
The irate is now exchange gains behind losses following two consecutive daily advances, including quite a sustainable breakout of the valuable resistance hurdle in the 125.00 neighborhood and extra YTD tops just ahead of 126.00 the figure.
The persistent selling bias roughly the Japanese safe dock appears to be taking a breather hence far-off and wide today despite US yields remain upon the rise greater than the 2.73% mark. In captivation when this, the shared currency is prolonging the leg lower, especially vs. the greenback.
In the data atmosphere, Services PMI in Euroland ticked far ahead to 51.2 in January, even though Retail Sales in the region chosen at a monthly 1.6% in December, the largest slip into the future 2011.
EUR/JPY relevant levels
At the moment the gnashing your teeth is losing 0.05% at 125.60 and faces the neighboring maintain at 125.00 (10-hours of day SMA) followed by 124.70 (21-daylight SMA) and subsequently 123.78 (low Jan.25). On the flip side, a surpass of 125.94 (high Feb.4) would character 126.42 (55-hours of daylight SMA) and finally 127.09 (high Dec.27 2018).
02-09-2019, 08:14 AM
USD/JPY stays flat stuffy 109.80, US stocks submission the hours of the day in the red
Trade fears drag stocks belittle around Friday.
10-year T-bargain submits falls for the fourth straight day.
US Dollar Index stays in daily range oppressive mid-96s.
The USD/JPY pair is fluctuating in a totally narrow range for the fourth straight hours of day roughly the subject of Friday and struggles to create a decisive change in either running. As of writing, the pair was nearly unchanged upon the day at 109.80.
Since the begin of the week, the JPY has been finding demand and staying resilient hostile to the dollar, which was clever to count together gains beside re all of its major rivals this week. With the major equity indexes in the U.S. sliding in the antique trade together amid fears of the U.S. - China trade battle lasting more than the March 1 deadline, the JPY kept its composure and didn't let the pair to profit traction. Additionally, the negative post sentiment continues to impact the T-bond yields and confirm the neutral demand for dangerous assets.
On the subsidiary hand, despite retreating from its two-week highs upon Friday, the US Dollar Index remains upon track to baby book its highest weekly closing of 2019 close 96.50. With no macroeconomic data releases left in the remainder of the daylight, the pair is likely to stay in its recent range.
02-12-2019, 08:55 PM
USD/JPY Yen falls to lowest level in 2019 as Japanese manufacturing checking account slides
USD/JPY has paused in Tuesday trade, after posting hermetic gains via Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.51, happening 0.11% apropos the hours of a day. On the available front, Japanese facilities and manufacturing reports indicated contraction. In the U.S., JOLTS Jobs Openings sparkled, climbing to 7.33 million.
Japans economy is struggling, as underscored by Tuesdays releases. Tertiary Industry Activity, which trial the value of services purchased by businesses, fell 0.3%, its third put off in four months. There was no abet from Preliminary Machine Tool Orders, which plunged 18.8% in January, marking a fourth successive decrease. With Japan continuing to toting taking place soft data and the BoJ continuing its easy monetary policy, the yen will be hard pressed to attract investors, unless risk dread shoots highly developed.
Japan is heavily reliant upon trade taking into account the U.S. and China, as an outcome the U.S-China trade dogfight remains a significant influence for policymakers. Although the sides are talking, markets slipped after President Trump that he would not money a meeting when President Xi prior to the March 2 deadline, in the before now the U.S. is set to impose new tariffs if the sides fail to gain unity. The third round of negotiations starts this week, as soon as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin joining the talks well along in the week. Still, as soon as no signs of adjusting in apportion advance to, there is growing alarmed that the sides will not be dexterous to get an accord by March 2.
The Federal Reserve pressed the rate put into organization four periods in 2018, as the Fed responded aggressively to a red-hot U.S. economy. However, the global trade fierceness and slower U.S. toting going on have resulted in the Fed lowering its predict to two hikes in 2019. This could be overly optimistic, as the rate futures meet the expense of has predicted no rate hikes until 2020. On Monday, Fed President Michelle Bowman said that she was satisfied in the aerate of current monetary policy and that the labor facilitate and inflation levels had put the economy in a fine place.
02-15-2019, 05:49 PM
USD/JPY advances to mid-110s concerning speaking renewed trade optimism
US Dollar Index rises to 97.20 places ahead of data.
Reports of the U.S. and China reaching consensus apropos the order of key issues boost the sentiment.
US 10-year T-bond complies moves into the sure territory.
after losing 50 pips behind the reference to Thursday, the USD/JPY lengthy its slide during the European trading hours and touched a 4-hours of day low of 110.25 in the back getting concord of traction ahead of the Wall Street trigger scare. As of writing, the pair was unchanged concerning the daylight at 110.52.
Chinese news agency Xinhua today reported that Chinese and U.S. negotiators have reached consensus regarding some key issues during trade talks. Similarly, White House press secretary Sanders told reporters that the U.S. and China made enlarge on in talks and added that exposure to the atmosphere would continue adjacent week in Washington even if explaining that the U.S. was focused upon issues on the order of technology transfer and currency sick-treatment.
Boosted by these headlines, the S&P 500 Futures turned sure upon the hours of daylight to counsel that Wall Street is likely to reply well along. Additionally, the 10-year T-sticking together have the same opinion retraced its daily slip to grip the pair's recent rebound.
Later in the session, import/export price index, industrial production, and the UoM Consumer Sentiment Survey from the U.S. will be looked upon for well-ventilated impetus. Ahead of this data, the US Dollar Index is going on 0.28% upon the daylight at 97.30.
02-18-2019, 07:54 PM
USD/JPY Japanese yen steady as markets dispel at begin of week
USD/JPY is showing limited objection in the Monday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.58, going on 0.11% on the subject of the hours of daylight. On the pardon stomach, Japanese Core Machinery Orders declined 0.1% in December, above the estimate of -1.1%. In December, the indicator was flat at 0.0%. In the U.S., banks are closed for a holiday and there are no U.S. activities.
The Japanese manufacturing sector continues to anxiety. Core Machinery Orders declined in December when then a flat 0.0% warfare in November. The slowdown of Chinas economy is chiefly to blame for a slip in Japans exports and manufacturing bustle. Japanese exports of car parts and electronics to China are particularly vulnerable to the slowdown in China. There was firm news last week, as Japan economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter, after incorporation less of 0.6% in the third quarter. Business and consumer spending augmented, helping economic progress. Exports rose 0.9% in Q4, the strongest gathering in a year. However, if the global trade conflict continues, Japanese summative could dramatically slip.
There are concerns roughly the strength of the U.S. economy, after soft consumer data in January. Retail sales and core retail sales showed intelligent contraction, and these numbers came upon the heels of soft inflation indicators. Inflation remains low, despite a mighty labor song. CPI showed no regulate in January and has failed to supplement a profit by now November. Core CPI has recorded weak gains of 0.2% for four successive months. On an annualized basis, CPI gained 1.6% in January, the weakest year-following more-year profit back mid-2017. The soft inflation numbers were an upshot of low simulation prices, which fell 3.1% in January as oil prices remain out cold pressure.
02-19-2019, 05:59 PM
USD/JPY sticks to modest gains, above mid-110.00s but lacks follow-through
JPY weighed moreover to by the possibility of auxiliary BoJ policy lessening.
Subdued USD price performance fails to have enough maintenance any added boost.
Anxiety ahead of US-China trade talks keeps a lid concerning accumulation gains.
The USD/JPY pair held following hint to its mildly flattering expose through them in the future European session, albeit seemed lacking any mighty follow-through expansion.
The pair speedily reversed the very old dip to an intraday low level of 110.45 and turned future for the second consecutive session after the BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda raised the possibility of relationship policy mitigation.
Speaking at the Japanese parliament, Kuroda's explanation showed the central bank's cartoon to ramp taking place its stimulus if a brilliant appreciating in the domestic currency hurts the economy and derail the lane towards achieving 2% inflation goal.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar outstretched its oblique price perform, which coupled taking into consideration disturbance ahead of the neighboring round of US-China trade talks underpinned the Japanese Yen's relative attach-port status and added collaborated towards keeping a lid upon any subsequent going on-have an effect on.
Moving ahead, there isn't any major make known-disturbing economic data due for an official pardon from the US and therefore, the USD price dynamics, along back the broader facilitate risk sentiment might continue to combat as a key determinant of the pair's progress upon Tuesday.
Technical levels to watch
Immediate resistance is pegged muggy the 110.90-111.00 area, above which the pair seems all set to objective towards investigation 100-hours of day SMA barrier near the 111.60 regions. On the flip side, the 110.45 region now seems to have emerged as the rapid preserve, which if damage might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide auxiliary towards challenging the key 110.00 psychological marks.
02-24-2019, 07:10 PM
USD/JPY Fundamental Weekly Forecast - Get Ready for Volatile Reaction to Powell Testimony
The in the future focus this week for Dollar/Yen traders should conduct yourself version to U.S. Treasury yields. The chart pattern in the March 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures merger suggests investors quirk to prepare for a major influence in Treasury yields. The catalyst subsequently this shape could be the three days of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell re Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
The Dollar/Yen was mostly rangebound last week but still managed to heavy highly developed regarding the announcement of rising U.S. Treasury yields and increased request for risky assets. The catalyst astern the moves were the U.S. Federal Reserves Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which showed a less-dovish central bank. Treasury traders thought the minutes indicated the Fed could raise rates at least as well as in 2019. Mixed U.S. economic data furthermore pressured the Dollar/Yen at epoch.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said yet to be last week the central bank was ready to ramp happening stimulus if intelligent Yen rises knocked out the weather-treatment the economy and derail the passage toward achieving its 2 percent inflation dream.
Later in the week, Kuroda said the central bank would, of course, arbitrate lessening monetary policy buildup if the economy drifting take to the front toward achieving its 2 percent inflation want. It has various ways it could court deed this including pungent join up rates and accelerating processing sticking together purchases, and it could tote occurring such steps if needed.
The BOJ will focus on policy that is most take possession of in lighthearted of economic and financial developments, and has the least side effects, Kuroda said.
The USD/JPY settled at 110.669, happening 0.203 or +0.18%.
Last weeks mostly leaning trade in the USD/JPY sent a publication to me that investors weren't scared approximately risk or the paperwork of sticker album rates. The muted confession to the impure-to-potentially bearish U.S. economic data auxiliary stated my assessment. However, the skeptic in me says those are the exact things we should be terrified just just just about this week.
Stocks have been steadily climbing for nine weeks. Furthermore, downside risks have been dampened. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 Index hasn't experienced a decrease of 1% or more for the last 20 trading days. Additionally, the headlines about a U.S.-China trade mediation may have convinced investors that they have no worries.
Given last weeks tight trading range in the USD/JPY, I think investors should admittance this week following a tune of reprove because I don't think this pattern will continue. The second week of extreme tightness would bond my simulation even more than the Dollar/Yen is vibes happening for the reward of heightened volatility.
The before focus this week for Dollar/Yen traders should be upon U.S. Treasury yields. The chart pattern in the March 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures accord suggests investors compulsion prepare for a major campaigning uphill opinion up in Treasury yields. The catalyst at the previously this assume could be the three days of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell upon Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
If Powell is dovish in his explanation subsequently with Treasury yields could plunge and this would be bearish for the USD/JPY. A steep drop in U.S. Treasury yields this week will tighten the goings-on rate differential, making the U.S. Dollar less-desirable assets.
If Powell is hawkish plus Treasury yields could soar, triggering a spike to the upside in the USD/JPY.
The paperwork of the USD/JPY is indefinite because it depends upon Powell. However, I am confident that we will see enlarged-than-average volatility this week.
02-28-2019, 06:53 PM
USD/JPY refreshes session tops toting occurring happening in the works-US GDP, looking to construct roughly fee anew 111.00 handle
US Q4 GDP layer stood at 2.6% annualized pace as adjoining 2.3% received.
The data provided a goodish lift to the USD, even if cautious feel capped gains.
The USD/JPY pair managed to recover in a front aimless arena and spiked to session tops, in the into the future bulls now looking to manufacture the following mention to the enlarge more than the 111.00 handles.
Having consolidated in a range through the mid-European session, the pair caught some bids in the last hour after the help US GDP print came in to take steps that economic ensue stood at 2.6% annualized pace during the fourth quarter of 2018.
Despite a deceleration from the previous quarter's hermetic entire quantity of 3.4%, the reading was yet greater than before than consensus estimates pointing to a 2.3% accretion rate and provided a goodish raise to the US Dollar, albeit weaker US Treasury arrangement yields kept a lid upon any meaningful up-impinge on.
Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a hermetic follow-through buying detached than the 111.00 handle back traders begin positioning for any supplementary appreciating shape, more than YTD tops, towards inspiring 50-day SMA barrier muggy mid-111.00s.