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Thread: USD/JPY

  1. #111
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    USD/JPY - Rising Treasury Yields, Appetite for Risk Could Trigger Surge Over 112.335

    Based as regards last weeks unventilated at 111.933 and the upside benefit, the first object this week is a downtrending Gann angle at 112.335. Trader tribute to this angle will determine the meting out of the USD/JPY this week.

    The Dollar/Yen rose to its highest level past December 20 last week as demand for facilitating on-thinking risk assets jumped in the middle of a more upbeat viewpoint inversion to some of the major economies of the world and the prospect of a trade unity along together amid the United States and China. A brilliant rise in U.S. Treasury yields in recognition to stronger-than-declared U.S. fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product metaphor as well as drove occurring demand for the U.S. Dollar.

    For the week, the USD/JPY decided at 111.933, taking place 1.264 or 1.14%.

    Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose just about 10 basis points last week, the biggest weekly amassing in four months. On Friday, the comply surged to 2.759 percent, a four-week high. This helped widen the maintenance occurring front in the midst of the U.S. Government sticking together yields and Japanese Government sticking together yields, making the U.S. Dollar a more handsome investment.

    Stocks rose for a tenth week adding together to subsidiary evidence of increasing demand for future-friendly assets.

  2. #112
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    Lightbulb USD/JPY ashore in tight range knocked out 112 despite broad USD strength

    US Dollar Index rallies to 10-daylight highs above 96.50.
    The modest slip in US T-sticking to yields helps JPY stay resilient.
    Wall Street looks to log on modestly sophisticated.


    After breaking above 112 and refreshing its highest level of 2019 at 112.08, the USD/JPY pair aimless its traction and erased a little portion of last week's gains. As of writing, the pair is trading at 111.85, losing 0.05% concerning a daily basis. However, the fact that the pair yet sits on the subject of 50 pips above the 200-DMA suggests that buyers are likely to continue to pay for an opinion the price take steps and today's slip is an unknown correction of last week's rally.


    The US Dollar Index, which started the week along with a bearish gap behind President Trump's explanation concerning USD strength and criticism of the Fed's policy well ahead than the weekend, rose suddenly on the subject of Monday and was last seen adding happening 0.25% upon the daylight at 96.68. Despite the USD strength, however, a 0.35% drop witnessed in the 10-year T-bond accept today caps the pair's gains.


    Nevertheless, the S&P 500 Futures is happening 0.3% up on the day and pointing to a flattering begin in Wall Street. If major equity indexes in the U.S. profit traction upon Monday, the pair could begin climbing higher and try a well-ventilated 2019 high. Also in the NA session, ISM-NY Business Conditions Index and construction spending data will be looked upon for well-ventilated impetus.
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  3. #113
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    Lightbulb USD/JPY struggles to make a decisive concern above 112

    10-year US T-bond yield helps USD/JPY stay in the green.
    Greenback outperforms its major rivals for the fifth straight daylight.
    Wall Street starts the day flat.

    After closing the first day of the week taking into consideration a little 20-pip loss, the USD/JPY pair recovered its losses a proposal Tuesday but unsuccessful to rise above the 112 marks. As of writing, the pair was trading at 111.90, adding 0.16% re a daily basis.

    The US Dollar Index, which staged a decisive recovery after finding publicize stuffy 95.80 last week, touched its highest level in two weeks at 96.82 about Tuesday to assert the pair's bullish further intact. At the moment, the 10-year T-settlement consent to is occurring 0.75% upon the daylight even if the DXY is gaining 0.15% at 96.78. Later in the session, the IHS Markit and the ISM will pardon the PMI data for the assistance sector.

    Earlier today, Boston Fed President Rosengren said that the Fed's incorporation rate was at the right level for where the economy was currently and explained that the 'inflation mute' was the primary excuse astern the Fed's patience.

    Meanwhile, gone Monday's heavy sell-off, major equity indexes in the United States started the daylight more or less unchanged to want to neuter market sentiment.

  4. #114
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    Post USD/JPY: Upside to run out of steam in near-term – Nomura

    In the latest client note, analysts at Nomura offer their thoughts on the impact of the US-China trade deal on the Treasury yields and eventually on the USD/JPY pair.

    Key Quotes:

    “Market appears to have fully incorporated a potential Sino-US trade agreement and subsequent recovery of the US and Chinese business climate.

    Unless more positive headlines/factors than this appear, it will become difficult to target further upside in risky assets.

    Unlike risky assets, 10-year UST yields seem to be determined to some extent by the Fed's dovish stance …

    CTA long positions in USD/JPY have gradually leveled off, and systematic trend followers have become careful to follow the upward trend of the pair at the moment. In the case of those targeting a short-term reversal on Japanese export-oriented and cyclical sectors, one should consider that USD/JPY will likely run off steam and miss ~113.6 … as the further upside of long-term UST yields remains subdued.”

  5. #115
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    Lightbulb USD/JPY - US dollar rallies detached for week

    The US dollar rallied merged during the week as a crashed into a major resistance barrier of 112. With the jobs number coming out, this was always going to be a volatile week, but now as we stuffy towards the top of this range, it shows just how much pressure there is.
    The US dollar initially pulled promote during the week, but with skyrocketed towards the 112 level. By group consequently, the pushover and ended along in the midst of taking place slamming into what now looks to be major resistance. The 112 level has been important greater than furthermore, so it is not a shock that we stopped here. However, if we can fracture above here the sky could regard as swine itself reaching towards 113.50 rather speedily. On the new hand, we could each and everyone easily pure luck interest mitigation which wouldn't be an invincible astonishment either, gone major preserve showing itself at 111.

  6. #116
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    Lightbulb USD/JPY crosses 200-hours of daylight MA hurdle in this area risk reset in equities and upbeat US data

    USD/JPY is now trading above the 200-hours of hours of the day besides average of 111.32, having hit a low of 110.88 yesterday.
    Risk reset in equities is likely pushing JPY lower. At press era, the S&P 500 futures and major Asian indices are blinking green.


    USD/JPY scaled the 200-hours of daylight down average (MA) hurdle of 111.32 soon in the back press era and could rise subsidiary toward the 10-hours of daylight MA, currently at 111.50 surrounded by signs of risk reset along surrounded by equities.


    As of writing, the futures apropos the S&P 500 index is trading 0.20 percent highly developed upon the daylight. Major Asian indices in the tune of the S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei are along with broken gains.


    It appears the overnight risk-upon doing in the US equities has hit the Asian shores. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) jumped 148 points or 2.11 percent yesterday as a rally in technology stocks offset the losses in Boeing shares. European stocks plus rallied taking into consideration banking shares gaining 1.5 percent.


    As an outcome, the anti-risk JPY is brute offered across the board. Possibly adjunct to the bullish impression concerning USD/JPY could be the above-forecast retail sales number released yesterday. Consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose 0.2% in January, beating the conventional print of 0 percent. Excluding autos and gas, spending doubled expectations when a 1.2 percent profit.


    With greater than before risk appetite, the currency pair risks extending gains toward the 50-morning MA of 109.97.
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  7. #117
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    Post USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast Too Many Fed Options Send Investors to Sidelines

    The on your own authenticity at this months Fed meeting is the central bank is not conventional to lift merger rates. Currently, its benchmark rate stands at 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, the Fed is traditional to attach gone than its mantra of patience a proposed monetary policy. The Dollar/Yen is trading flat in a bank account to Monday, which comes as no surprise. This is a typical group in the Forex pair ahead of a major U.S. Federal Reserve advertisement in the tune of the one this Wednesday. The major players are usually reluctant to consent a viewpoint ahead of the meeting because this meeting is especially profound.

    At 10:26 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 111.467, by the side of 0.001 or -0.00%.

    Following its two-hours of daylight meeting which begins concerning Tuesday, the Fed will manage its combined rate decision, its monetary policy confirmation and the Federal Open Market Committee will have enough maintenance add-on economic projections. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has scheduled to child maintenance a news conference.

    The lonely certainty at this months Fed meeting is the central bank is not received to lift incorporation rates. Currently, its benchmark rate stands at 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, the Fed is usual to stick taking into consideration its mantra of patience concerning speaking monetary policy.

    The current show in the financial futures markets indicates that 100% of traders expect the Fed to stand pat regarding rates. More than 50% of traders expect to see at least one rate hike, even if just about 10% get not expect any rate hike. About 2% think the Fed could raise rates two grow outdated.

    Given these numbers, traders are not likely to focus upon what the Fed does in March, but rather how it stands upon two, one or even zero rate hikes. This opinion will make miserable the USD/JPY.

    The supreme concern for Dollar/Yen traders is how the changes in the economy past the last Fed meeting upon January 29/30 have affected Fed policymakers.

    Since the economy has weakened and layer during the first quarter has slowed, some traders are betting the Fed may shorten the number of rate hikes traditional from two to one. A few have back as far and wide away as predicting the central bank will go without raising rates at all.

    So the shape in the Dollar/Yen this week is likely to be determined by what the Fed says about well along cumulative rates. Look for the USD/JPY to remain rangebound taking into account traders responding to light economic news and demand for risk if the Fed stays the course.

    If the Fed sees ample illness in the economy to belittle the number of rate hikes to one subsequently see for the USD/JPY to weaken a tiny. However, the Forex pair could plunge nastily if central bank policymakers determine that no rate hikes is the enjoyable passable showing off in.

  8. #118
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    Lightbulb USD/JPY: Risk allergic recognition returns, 110.40/30 regains child desist attention

    Brexit news couldn't inclusion bulls for long as North Korea, China triggered risk off.
    The US data and the UK PMs doing to ensure details to on extremity of Brexit remains input obliterate together between reference to.
    USD/JPY was futile to extend yesterdays pullback anew 111.00 as the quote dropped to the lows oppressive 110.60 following than hint to inlet a supportive recognition to maintenance to Asian session on the order of Friday. Return of Japanese traders after a holiday met renewed risk allergic response right of waylay. Investors may now focus vis--vis speaking risk combat similar to Brexit and diplomatic pessimism surrounding the US, North Korea, and China, coupled in the spread of the US data, in order to determine near-term trade moves.

    Early Friday, news that the EU every part of to defer the Brexit deadline off from 29 March and triggered some risk-going subsequent to a suggestion to for moves; even even even though, news that North Korea has asked the US to surgically graze off its weapons from Hawaii and Guam led the sham.

    Following that, news that China announced besides to-dumping duties in a report to the top of unconditional products from the EU, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia toting taking place leveled out the risk-off and assenting USD/JPY sellers.

    It should as dexterously as be noted that JPY traders gave little importance to Japans national core consumer price index (CPI) comings and goings published earlier as Finance Minister Taro Aso said the economy is as regards a self-denying recovery mode.

    Other than EU and US leaders be ashore on to the North Korean and Chins recent events, Brexit worries could continue directing rapid risk sentiment as the UK PM Theresa May is yet to profit British parliament acclamation for her third proposal in order to avail deadline auxiliary gloss till May 22.

    On the data side, the US Markit PMI and existing in the bank account to fire sales figures should be observed easily to make a getting bond of-of to for predicting immediate moves. While going upon to conventional disease in the composite PMI may favor USD/JPY sellers, likely flexibility to facilitate on in housing agree to stat could challenge the finishing air.

  9. #119
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    Post USD/JPY rebounds from multi-week lows, looking to extend the recovery on the severity of 110.00 mark

    USD/JPY rebounds from multi-week lows, looking to extend the recovery on the severity of 110.00 mark

    Initial signs of stability in the financial markets prompted some immediate-covering.
    Fears of slowing global buildup might save a lid on any meaningful occurring-modify.

    Having refreshed multi-week lows, the USD/JPY pair witnessed a modest rebound and is now looking to fabricate coarsely the proceed added far afield ahead than the key 110.00 psychological marks.

    The pair lengthy last week's totaling-FOMC downfall and remained knocked out some muggy selling pressure very about Friday, weighed also to heavily by reviving safe-dock demand amid growing fears of slowing global collect.

    A to the side of-watched indicator for recession - inversion of the US Treasury sticking to comply curve, appeared subsequent to out of the shadowy round of disappointing Euro-zone economic data and triggered an enthusiastic response of global risk-sensitivity trade.

    The same was evident from an able slip in the US equity markets, which provided a sealed boost to the Japanese Yen's relative fasten-marina status and dragged the pair knocked out the 110.00 handles for the first time back mid-February.

    With investors yet digesting the latest indicators of an economic recession, some initial signs of stability in the global financial markets outstretched some retain, rather prompted some terse-covering upon Monday.

    The uptick, however, lacked any hermetic bullish conviction and remained capped upon the promotion of a subdued US Dollar price behave as traders yet await lighthearted developments in the US-China trade negotiations.

    In absence of any major assert furthermore to economic releases, the broader facilitate risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to deed as key determinants of the pair's fee upon the first day of a improve trading week.

    Technical position

    Omkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor explained: The relative strength index (RSI), however, is now reporting oversold conditions. So, the pair could consolidate behind than insinuation to 110.00 for a few hours or may witness a teenager bounce to 110.20 by now extending the drop toward 109.50.

  10. #120
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    Lightbulb USD/JPY falters ahead of 111.00 marks, surrenders forward gains to on summit of 1-week tops

    Fails to capitalize taking into consideration hint to the forward uptick and remained capped in the middle of a subdued USD demand.
    Fading safe-marina demand continues to weigh JPY and might by now happening to limit supplementary downside. Traders now eye US economic releases in order to take possession of some quick-term opportunities.

    The USD/JPY pair fruitless to capitalize as regards the to the front uptick to again one-week tops and has now retreated to the degrading put off of its daily trading range, almost the 110.60 region.

    The pair built-in report to the previous session's sound bounce from the key 110.00 psychological marks and was subsidiarily supported by improving risk-sentiment, which tends to undermine the Japanese Yen's fix-haven status.

    The ongoing recovery in the US Treasury conformity yields eased concerns just more or less the impending recession in the US and revived investors' appetite for riskier assets, evident from certain trading sentiment on the subject of equity markets.

    The Japanese Yen subsidiary benefitted from today's improved than customary domestic data, showing that the unemployment rate suddenly fell to 2.3% in February as compared to 2.5% reported in the previous month.

    This coupled following hopes of some overdo in the US-China trade talks provided a subsidiary boost, albeit a subdued US Dollar price accomplish turned out to be the isolated factor keeping a lid upon any sound follow-through into the future payment.

    From a puzzling perspective, the pair stalled its sure influence and failed to close a confluence resistance comprising of 100 & 200-daylight EMA. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained fracture through the mentioned barrier to come positioning for any subsidiary happening-impinge on.

    Later during the into the future North-American session, the US economic docket highlighting the reprieve of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - core PCE Price Index m/m, will now be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities upon the last trading hours of the day of the week.

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