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Thread: GBP/AUD

  1. #1
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    GBP/AUD

    Daily on the rise relative to the Australian pound per fortnight looks impressive. And the fact that there was a third at a maximum Indian, as it is not convinced that this will end. Until you can count on a slight pullback. But not yet finalized a strong level of 100 extensions. There are subtlety, this third wave greater than the second, so as long as possible breakdown of the Indians.
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    The pair of GBP/AUD. the pair is trading with increased and is now trying to break the resistance level 0.9810. If it is broken, it will open a new resistance if the stand, it is possible to fall in price support level 1.9660. Everything will depend on inflation data.

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    GBP/AUD during the recent days was in a strong and consistent uptrend that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 2.0030.Price by reaching to the important round resistance level of 2.0000 and the resistance edge of uptrend channel has stopped from more ascend that shows buyers used this price level to exit their trades.

    According to the formed price movements in the chart, between the bottom price of 1.7858 and top price of 2.0030,there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point there will be a warning for descending of price.Stoch indicator in daily time frame is in the saturation buy area and is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction.One of the important warnings for decreasing of is breaking of supportive level of 1.9768 (Low level of price changes in the previous daily candle).

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    GBPAUD - simple bearish structure trade

    If the previous support level becomes now resistance, we might be looking at a nice opportunity to short GBPAUD on the lower highs, lower lows structure principle.

    Watch out though, the overall trend on the daily is still very bullish so we might be looking at a little further gasping for breath before the rally continues. The red line in the chart is a weekly support/resistance.

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    The pair is trading with an increase and can not break through the resistance level of 1.9745. If it is broken, opens the road to resistance level 1.9810. In case if this resistance hold out, then maybe pair falling to the level of 1.9680.


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    Technical analysis of GBP/AUD dated 06.03.2015

    As it was mentioned in the previous analysis of this currency pair dated 16.02.2015, according to the formed signs in this price chart, there was the possibility of descending of price which finally happened.As it is obvious in the picture below, price with reaching to the supportive edge of Down channel has been stopped from more descend and by forming a bottom price (Doji Pattern) of 1.9453 has prepared the field for ascending of price.

    AS it is obvious in the picture below, there is an ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 2.0028 and the bottom price of 1.9453 with ratios of 78.6 and 127.2 that warns the ascending of price from the D point.RSI indicator is in saturation sell area that confirms the current harmonic pattern with the next cycle but because of non-compliance and coordination with larger time frames, this signal is not much valid.Based on current chart , there is a probability for bullish candles , First notice for starting bearish trend will be came out after punching D spot in 1.9453 level.

  7. #7
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    Date : 2nd April 2015


    UK CONSTRUCTION PMI BELOW EXPECTATIONS.






    GBPAUD reached a historical resistance at 1.9697 (a spring 2009 low) in February and has since reacted lower from this level. Over the last two weeks the pair has been rallying strongly and is nearing the resistance area again. Fundamentals and the strong weekly trend support the bids in GBPAUD but price has rallied strongly and reached a potential resistance level. Therefore it pays to monitor the market more closely and time the entries at support levels in pullbacks.


    Sterling has been trending higher against the Australian dollar as it is likely that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the interest rates either in April or May while the UK economy is rather strong. A recent editorial in The Australian that said “a cut in interest rates either next month or in May is a virtual certainty,”. A 25 basis points cut at the May policy review is likely, which would take the cash rate to a record low 2.0%.


    Australian economy is slowing while the commodity prices have dropped significantly. Growth has slowed, with GDP rising 0.5% q/q in Q4, but slowing to a 2.5% y/y pace from +2.7% y/y in Q3. The RBA’s Index of Commodity Prices has tumbled. The index has fallen by 20.6% y/y in SDR terms through February, driven by lower prices for bulk commodities. At 72.5, the index is at its lowest level since December 2009, extending pullback from a 124.7 peak in July 2011. In addition, inflation has slowed, with CPI dropping to 1.7% y/y in Q4 from 2.3% y/y in Q3.


    At the same time UK data improves and even though the elections cause a certain level of anxiety in the markets (no one likes uncertainty) the GBPAUD has been rather strong lately. Incoming UK data has been rather strong. The future data should be positive for sterling, though concerns of a hung parliament outcome at the May-7 general election are likely to crimp enthusiasm for the UK currency and assets, especially if the Scottish Nationalist Party ends up holding the balance of power. UK Markit manufacturing PMI survey came in at 54.3 in March, fractionally above our survey median for 54.3 and improving from February’s 54.1 reading. This is the third consecutive month of improvement, affirming that activity in the sector is reaccelerating after a soft patch in Q4 last year.


    UK construction PMI was much worse than expected at 57.8 in March, down from February’s 60.1 and well below the Reuters median forecast for 59.5. The 2014 overall average was 61.8, so the data points to a drop-off in momentum. The decline in March was largely reflective of a slowdown in civil engineering activity growth, which the survey found may be related to uncertainty ahead of the too-close-to-call May-7 general election. Job creation also remained below 2014 levels. However, at 57.8 this still signals a robust level of activity while business confidence rose to a nine-year high. Sub-contractor charges rose at the fastest pace since the survey began in 1997. Overall, the strong outlook offsets the decline in the headline, and the slowdown in activity in some areas may pick up after the May election.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  8. #8
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    Date : 4th June 2015. (Second Analysis)


    GBPAUD Trading At Resistance.






    GBPAUD, Weekly


    Sterling has been trending higher against Australian dollar since August last year. In February GBPAUD hit a historical resistance at 1.9697 and it has taken the pair close to four months to move back above this resistance level. AUDGBP is now trading at Bollinger bands while Stochastics are overbought. There is a small cluster of Fibonacci extension levels just above the Bollinger bands between 2.0160 and 2.0313 and a historical resistance at 2.0991. Momentum has slowed down but the trend is still up.





    GBPAUD, Daily


    A week ago GBPAUD hit a resistance at February high at 2.0029. This caused the price to break out from a bearish wedge. Since then the pair has found support at 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.9656 and rallied back to levels it dropped from. This looks like a classic return move that should be followed by a move lower. The nearest potential support level is in the region of 1.9408 to 1.94823 where 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, lower Bollinger bands and 50 SMA coincide. The next support area is between 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels while the nearest daily resistance is at 2.0057.





    GBPAUD, 240 min


    GBPAUD has moved inside the sideways range it formed last week. The pair is approaching the upper Bollinger bands but apart from Stochastics being overbought and slightly tilting to the right there are no signs of momentum slowdown yet in this timeframe as the latest bar closed near its high and the current bar is pushing into 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band. Even though price is close to very potential resistance levels I would like to see some price based evidence that the buyers have exhausted their resources before committing to the short side. The nearest 4h support is at a Fibonacci cluster above 1.9600. Nearest 4h resistance levels above 1.9907 are at 1.9998 and 2.0042.


    Conclusion


    Even though there has been some momentum slowdown the weekly trend is still higher. The historical resistance at 2.0991 is a logical target price in the weekly time frame. The daily timeframe has some weakness (price has broken out of a bearish wedge) and this suggests that the above resistance could still prove to be a problem for the bulls. If market corrects from this resistance it could however be a short term move as support is not that far and the weekly trend is pretty firmly to the upside. Look for support between 1.9600 and 1.9700 with a long term target at 2.0870 and medium term target at 2.0270. Short term and intraday traders could consider 2.0000 as a target.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 10th December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.50% from 2.75%. The rate cut was widely anticipated. The reduction in the official cash rate as “monetary policy need to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Governor Wheeler said. He expects this can be accomplished at the current rate setting, but assured the bank will reduce rates further if needed. On the exchange rate, he said the recent rise in the value of the New Zealand dollar has been “unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate in order to support sustainable growth.”


    Japan’s PPI improved to a 3.6% y/y rate of decline in November from -3.8% in October. Granted, that is still troublesome for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy, but at least the rate of decline did not worsen. The PPI fell 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.6% plunge in November.


    Australia employment surged 71.4k in November after the revised 56.1k gain in October (was +58.6k). The hefty gain in November, which was the largest one month gain since July of 2000, contrasted with expectations for a modest dip following the sizable rise in October. Full time jobs grew 41.6k in November after the 38.4k rise in October (was +40.0k). Part time jobs rose 29.7k after a 17.7k gain (was +18.6k). The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in November from 5.9% while the participation rate rose to 65.3% in November from 65.0%. Two consecutive months of stellar job growth confirms that the RBA’s stimulus efforts are working. Moreover, it trims prospects for further cuts from the RBA next year. We see no change for an extended period. AUD-USD shot higher to the 0.7300 area from 0.7250 ahead of the report.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • SNB Rate Decision: The SNB was in luck and Draghi didn’t quite deliver the bazooka markets had been hoping for, which meant market reaction didn’t go quite according to plan and this gives the SNB some time to watch how things develop. That doesn’t mean, there couldn’t be further easing outside a policy setting meeting if there is fresh upward pressure on the currency.


    • BoE Rate Decision: No change is expected in the Bank of England’s 0.5% rate policy.

    • Canada Capacity Utilization: We expect the capacity use rate, due Thursday, to recover to 82.0% in Q3 (median 82.1%) from 81.3% in Q2. The anticipated improvement tracks the 2.3% rebound in Q3 GDP after the 0.3% drop in Q2 and the 0.7% pull-back in Q1.


    • US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of December 5 are out today and should show claims at 268k (median 267k) for the week, down from 269k in the week prior but above the 260k reading before that. Despite improvements in claims data we tend to see increased volatility around the holiday season which accounts for some of the increase in the November average to 269k. We expect a December average of 266k which compares to our forecast for nonfarm payrolls of 190k for the month.3


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    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #10
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    Currently GBPAUD is moving up to the level of 2.0851 and Bollinger band indicator shows the market already at saturation point, it is estimated the market will move down to the level of 2.0808.

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